- Another Deadline Deal
- The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
- Daily DFS
- SaberSim Observations
- Tomorrow’s Targets
- Factor Grid
1. Another Deadline Deal
We’re still waiting on most of the big deadline trades. The Giants pulled off a minor heist in acquiring Eduardo Nunez for a fairly trivial prospect. Adalberto Mejia probably has a future in the majors. He’ll probably produce somewhere around 5 WAR over his career. In fact, the latest model of KATOH pegs him for 3.9 WAR.
Nunez is a good get for the Giants. He improves the club’s floor with his utility and balanced skill set. Acquiring him is all about risk management rather than chasing dreams. For fantasy purposes, the move to San Francisco hurts his power potential. He’ll still run frequently.
The real winner of the trade is Jorge Polanco who the Twins have found every way to block over the last couple years. Polanco is an interesting pure hitter with high contact rates and solid plate discipline. The 23-year-old switch-hitter has 10-15 home run pop and decent speed. Judging by his minor league numbers, he’s probably a threat for about five steals a season. His playing time may remain inconsistent – Eduardo Escobar and Miguel Sano chew up the left side of the infield. Trevor Plouffe is nearing a return too.
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
It was a low scoring day on the DFS front. TDG regular 8mileallstars pulled out the win with a Jose Fernandez dud, Max Kepler, and Paulo Orlando. Unsurprisingly, he was the only owner to use Orlando. Congrats! The leaderboard is updated.
We’re back on FanDuel for tonight’s $2 main event.
3. Daily DFS
Early: Stupid Cubs.
Late: The other 14 games are in the evening. Max Scherzer stands all by himself as the ace of the slate. In situations where there’s 14 games and only one stud pitcher, I tend to avoid him. He’ll be over-owned and somebody cheaper will probably outperform him. Now the tricky part, deciding which “somebody else” is the best play.
Despite relatively underwhelming results since mid-May, Vincent Velasquez may be my top pick to outperform Scherzer. The righty draws the lowly Braves lineup – a team he could easily carve through. There are two bits of downside to consider. The Braves don’t actually strike out very often, and Velasquez’s innings have been managed since his injury.
Rick Porcello has been consistently consistent. He’s in a good situation at a pitcher’s park – Trout Stadium. One of these days, he’s going to turn in a complete game, eight-strikeout effort. Jose Quintana is in a similar position versus the Twins. The southpaw is a solid gamble for a complete game victory.
Targeting the Orioles lineup is always a dangerous decision. As with Porcello and Quintana, Marco Estrada has the potential to spin a complete game gem. When the Orioles flop, strikeouts are often to blame. The ceiling is high, the floor is low. Try not to fall.
Junior Guerra isn’t bargain priced, but he is the cheapest guy I could see reaching the 60 FD point threshold. The Brewers aren’t careful about managing his innings. They’ll let him go the distance if the splitter is splitting. The Pirates have a middle-of-the-pack offense.
Stack Targets: Zack Godley, Jose Urena, Brandon Finnegan, Tyrell Jenkins, Matt Boyd, Ricky Nolasco, Edwin Jackson, Steven Brault, Tim Lincecum, Kendall Graveman, Tyler Chatwood, Ivan Nova, A.J. Griffin, Collin McHugh
4. SaberSim Observations
SaberSim loves Kenta Maeda tonight. His projection is nearly as high as Scherzer’s. Steven Matz, Velasquez, and Quintana round out the top five. I’m hands off on Matz. He hasn’t been the same since shortly before the bone spur news surfaced – probably because he is dealing with bone spurs.
The Astros, Brewers, Cubs, Reds, Red Sox, Trout, Pirates, Blue Jays, Indians, and Orioles are among the top stacks today.
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
Pitchers to Start: The Nationals were intrigued enough by Reynaldo Lopez’s nine strikeout, 4.2 inning debut to give him a second audition. This time, fly ball suppressant AT&T Park is on his side. Look for a short outing with a high strikeout total.
Pitchers to Exploit: Dillon Overton is a soft-tossing, fly ball lefty with a home run problem. In other words, he’s the ideal pitcher to target. He does have a very good swinging strike rate through 15 innings, but that hasn’t been matched with strikeouts.
Also consider: Yovani Gallardo, Wade Miley, Nathan Eovaldi, Drew Smyly, Mike Fiers, Chase Anderson, Miguel Gonzalez, Tommy Milone, Jorge de la Rosa, Jarred Cosart, Martin Perez, Ian Kennedy, Christian Friedrich, Hector Santiago, Braden Shipley
Hitters (power): Welington Castillo is only truly available in one catcher leagues. He’s a must-stream tomorrow versus southpaw Scott Kazmir. Castillo is batting .337/.389/.67 versus lefties this season.
Hitters (speed): Rajai Davis has fallen under 50 percent ownership, and he has a superb matchup versus Overton. Go ahead, give him a whirl.
6. The Factor Grid
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
The weather app isn’t working today. Or, more accurately, my iPhone 3 is begging me to let it die.
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