The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for July 20

Agenda

1. Pitcher Debuts
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. Pitcher Debuts

Reynaldo Lopez’s debut last night was both successful and very much unsuccessful. He struck out nine batters against just one walk while featuring his impressive 96 mph fastball. Unfortunately, he also allowed 10 hits including a home run and six runs in just 4.2 innings.

The primary issue is command. We stats folks often look to walk rate as a proxy of command. Pitchers with overpowering stuff and minus command can get away with filling the strike zone with poorly commanded fastballs. Few minor league hitters can consistently barrel up a 96 mph fastball – even if it’s right down the shoot.

In many ways, it’s better for a pitcher like Lopez to have a high walk rate while learning how to pitch effectively at the major league level. That way, if the command ever does click, the pitcher is ready to begin dominating. We’ve seen a version of this with Danny Salazar. Pitchers like Lopez have to lean entirely on their catcher for strategy and tactics because they’ve done nothing to develop those skills.

Pitchers who thrive with command and control, like Joe Musgrove, have a different challenge when first reaching the majors. They’re accustomed to getting away with mistakes. If they happen to fall behind in the count, they can attack minor leaguers aggressively. In the majors mistakes and aggressive 2-0 fastballs are punished. The command prospects who survive the majors are the ones who learn how to get ahead in the count without throwing easily hit pitches.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Yesterday’s contest didn’t run. I wasn’t monitoring it closely so I don’t know if somebody dropped out because the Cardinals game or if it just never filled. We’ll do a 20 user game on DraftKings as a result.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The Braves are Reds are starting at noon-thirty. That gives us seven early and seven late. The early game in the Cardinals doubleheader is also unavailable.

Felix Hernandez is making his return from the disabled list today, but I won’t be giving him a look. Instead, my tunnel vision sees Kyle Hendricks opposite a mediocre Mets offense. Hendricks hasn’t been racking up the Ks lately which makes him a tad risky – perfect for GPPs. The ceiling’s right up there with Felix, Carlos Carrasco, and Justin Verlander even if he’s a little less likely to get there.

Speaking of Carrasco (Royals) and Verlander (Twins), they’re both good picks based on their matchups.

Pat Corbin is going to have trouble surviving the Blue Jays onslaught. For that reason, Marcus Stroman could be a solid low-cost selection. Stroman should earn the 12 point FanDuel win today.

Stack Targets: Corbin, Miguel Gonzalez, Jorge de la Rosa, Ervin Santana, Daniel Mengden, Chris Archer, Doug Fister

Late: The night crew is much thinner on the pitching side. Drew Pomeranz makes his Red Sox debut against the Giants. He saw them a couple times in late-May. They were neither his best nor worst starts. The game is at Fenway so we’ll get our first look at Pomeranz defending the Monster.

On FanDuel, Hector Santiago is the second priciest pitcher. Which is hilarious. Michael Pineda is a solid GPP pick versus the Orioles. We could get six innings and 12 strikeouts or 12 outs (aka four innings) and six runs.

Either side of Wei-Yin Chen or Jeremy Hellickson is worth a stab. They both have a roughly 45 FD point ceiling. New Bud Norris is also of interest opposite a tricky Nationals lineup.

Stack Targets: Paul Clemens, Chase Anderson, Matt Cain, Jeff Locke, Yovani Gallardo, Martin Perez, Jaime Garcia

4. SaberSim Observations

SaberSim likes Michael Pineda’s upside an awful lot. He’s the top ranked pitcher today followed by Pomeranz, Carlos Martinez (unavailable to us), Santiago, Carrasco, and Verlander. Interesting that FanDuel, DraftKings, and SaberSim all rate Santiago highly. He’s running hot, but I’ll take the Rangers offense in this one.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: This is how little I respect the Braves offense…I recommend you use Chad Bettis at Coors Field. Granted, this is a desperation play. If you’ve fallen behind in innings pitched or need a gimme win at the expense of ratios, Bettis is a solid pick. If you’re managing your ERA, then maybe sit this one out. I’m guessing most of you don’t actually have access to Urias even though he qualifies for this section.

Also consider: Julio Urias

Pitchers to Exploit: Mike Foltynewicz has shown improvement this season including more swinging strikes and a lower walk rate. He’s also remained terribly homer prone – at sea level. I shudder to think what will happen at Coors.

Also consider: Matt Garza, Francisco Liriano, Tyler Duffey, Andrew Cashner, Mike Pelfrey, James Shields, Sonny Gray, Matt Moore

Hitters (power): Sometimes I assume a player has been unavailable for a long time. I surprised to learn that Derek Dietrich is owned in just seven percent of Yahoo leagues. He’s one of the highest floor AND highest ceiling second baseman when facing a right-handed pitcher. Dee Gordon will be back soon to muddy the waters. Until then, use Dietrich as often as possible. He’s opposed by lefty-prone Jerad Eickhoff.

Also consider: Danny Valencia, Ryon Healy, Brad Miller, Jace Peterson, Jedd Gyorko, Chris Carter, John Jaso

Hitters (speed): Tim Anderson to leadoff versus Pelfrey? Yes please and thank you.

Also consider: Ender Inciarte, Cameron Maybin, Travis Jankowski, Joey Rickard

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Coors gets its very own color today.

The Link.

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