- Fantasy Constitution
- The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
- Daily DFS
- SaberSim Observations
- Tomorrow’s Targets
- Factor Grid
1. Fantasy Constitution
As is often the case on Saturdays, I need to work quickly today. Rather than exploring a topic of my own, here’s Trey Baughn again with a Template for a Fantasy League Charter. This is a topic I’ve long considered addressing, but it’s hard (i.e. time consuming) to draft a one-size-fits-all constitution. And boring. Here’s my attempt to add…oh hey, look, Mookie Betts. Shiny!
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
Congrats to fmitera3 on a big night. Chris Sale and consistent production from his entire offense carried him to victory. Everybody else rebounded too. All week, over half the field had scored in the 80s or worse. Yesterday, the worst scores were 97s. The leaderboard is updated. No contest today.
3. Daily DFS
Early: We have four games early with six legitimately interesting pitchers. Marcus Stroman is the best and the priciest. He’s still quite affordable which should translate to a heavy ownership. Instead of Stroman, consider fading him by choosing Ervin Santana. In these small contests, the unpopular plays are the ones that pay – assuming they don’t blow up in your face.
Jason Hammel versus Julio Urias makes for another interesting pairing. Hammel is consistently mid-tier, although the Dodgers are tough on right-handed pitching. Urias has an uphill battle versus a tough Cubs lineup. I prefer Hammel in this pairing.
The final game of interest features Dylan Bundy opposite Chad Green. Green probably doesn’t have enough upside to make a smart pick today. Then again, he posted a massive score against the Blue Jays just two starts ago. The Orioles feature a high volatility lineup, capable of exploding for a dozen runs or providing a dozen strikeouts. Or, sometimes, both. Of course, Bundy is the real prize in this matchup with his mix of quality stuff and pairing against a weak Yankees lineup.
Late: The other 11 games are late. Aces include Noah Syndergaard hosting the lowly Phillies, Carlos Carrasco, David Price, Danny Duffy, and Jose Quintana. Thor is obviously highly desirable with his matchup, but I do worry about the Phillies decent speed. If they get some guys to first base, they may wreak havoc.
Carrasco has a tough matchup against the Rangers. While he’s fun to watch because of his deep repertoire, he can occasionally struggle against quality opponents. The issue is his fastball which rates as below average. He’s basically the A.J. Ramos of starting pitchers – great guy with a suspect fastball.
Price is opposed by Duffy in the obvious pitcher’s duel of the day. At first glance, Price has the easier end of it even though the Royals are streaking. I worry their contact-oriented ethos matches poorly with Price’s occasional bouts of hittability. I don’t consider this to be a good matchup for either pitcher, but I might just give the edge to Duffy.
Quintana should have an easy win opposite Ariel Miranda. Then again, the White Sox sometimes forget to do any hitting.
Other pitchers of interest include Michael Fulmer, Blake Snell, Jameson Taillon, Jeremy Hellickson, Mike Foltynewicz, and Alex Reyes. It’s tempting to tab Reyes based on his insane stuff and tiny price ($4,500 on FanDuel). Unfortunately, he probably won’t throw over five innings.
I like Taillon the most of the also-ran group – at least for GPPs. The Brewers can be a difficult opponent, but they’re also highly strikeout prone. To compare them to the Orioles, they have half the explosiveness and even more of the whiffs.
4. SaberSim Observations
SaberSim says Syndergaard, Reyes, Dallas Keuchel, Taillon, and Green. It’s interesting to see Green take the cake in the early matchup. I was thinking of him as an unpopular zig, but perhaps he’ll be everybody’s top play. SaberSim is heavily informed by Steamer. A lot of similar tools out there use Steamer or something very similar. That means anybody SaberSim likes will probably be popular with the projection crowd.
Switching gears to the Reyes projection, he’s only projected for six innings. So his expected isn’t as overstated as you might expect. Still, the median projection should be for 4.2 innings. Obviously, that torpedoes his value because a majority of his outcomes can’t possibly include a win.
Trouts, Tigers, Pirates, Astros, Reds, Indians, Nationals, and Blue Jays should be among the most stackable offenses.
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
Pitchers to Start: Ivan Nova is a Pirate now, and we all know what happens to mediocre pitchers when they join the Pirates. I’m not actually saying Nova will suddenly morph into a stud, but he is coming off a complete game, one-run victory against the Astros. By comparison, the Brewers should be an easy opponent.
Pitchers to Exploit: The column shall end abruptly after this sub-section. I’m sure you can figure out how to target hitters versus bad pitchers all on your own. There are plenty of them too.
Mets spot starter Robert Gsellman was homer prone at Triple-A. That bodes poorly for his future in the majors. When it comes to allowing home runs, the gap between Triple-A and the majors might as well be the Grand Canyon. Then again, the Mets Triple-A affiliate does play in one of the worst venues for pitchers in the hitter friendly PCL. Gsellman throws 94 in relief which is the extent of my scouting report. For as exploitable as the Phillies are, they have a few power bats and some speedy sorts too.
Also consider: Kyle Gibson, Tyler Skaggs, Anibal Sanchez, Luis Perdomo, Andrew Cashner, Chad Bettis, Andrew Triggs, Derek Holland, Rob Whalen, Homer Bailey, Archie Bradley, Eduardo Rodriguez, Yordano Ventura
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