The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for August 20

Agenda

1. Disagreements
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Factor Grid

1. Disagreements

On Thursday, MLB Trade Rumors posted a blurb via Jon Heyman in which a rival executive opined that Yasiel Puig will clear revokable waivers if/when the Dodgers request them. My reaction was that the Phillies were perhaps the one team that made sense on paper – they can afford to waste $14MM over the next two years, they have an immediate spot in the outfield, and the whole distraction/personality thing doesn’t much matter to a hopeless ball club. Upon further review, I added the Braves as a viable suitor. They have similar conditions with a little less financial flexibility.

When I took these views to Twitter, I discovered that everybody else looks at Puig very positively. Where I see two win upside with clubhouse issues, they see a two win floor. As I’ve said countless times, Puig’s skill set includes middling power, no speed, below average contact skills, and moderate defensive chops. He was an explosive talent in 2013-14. Over the last two seasons, he’s visibly slowed in the box. Now he’s a hitter with a bad batted ball profile and insufficient hard contact. To my eyes, only a radical overhaul of his mechanics can save him – the kind that less than five players successfully incorporate per season.

The alternative viewpoint looks at his performance since returning from the disabled list (something like .300/.390/.500) and sees a renaissance. He’s mashing at Triple-A. He has the numbers of a player who is unchallenged at the level, albeit in under 40 plate appearances. Under the sunny view, Puig would be claimed by every team in baseball.

The two points we don’t really address – because they’re hard to quantify – are the injuries and the personality. To me, the story I read when I watch old-Puig swing next to now-Puig is a tale of injury. I see a player who has had his talent permanently (or at least semi-permanently) stolen by bad hamstrings. It’s possible to recover from hamstrings as bad as Puig’s – Jose Reyes did it for a couple years before declining again – but they can permanently alter your talent level. Certainly, they’ve eliminated just about any hope for stolen bases.

Teams would look past the injuries if not for the long history of, shall we say, personality quirks. The Dodgers have never succeeded in cancelling the Yasiel Puig Show. When he’s a five win player, it’s fine for him to hog the limelight. As a beleaguered guy struggling to reach just two WAR, his antics can be a powerful negative force in the clubhouse. The funny thing about chemistry – it just depends on the group of guys. The right teammates might even benefit from his flare.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

No contest today! Jschwietzer won yesterday with massive 40 point performances from Evan Gattis, Khris Davis, and Jose Altuve. I’ll update the leaderboard on Monday.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Just two games are early and the four pitchers are very similar. I happen to prefer A.J. Griffin to Jake Odorizzi for matchup reasons. I’m indifferent between Bartolo Colon and Matt Moore.

Late: The main slate includes a brutally obvious play of Max Scherzer versus the Braves. This is one of those scenarios when you might just want to pay for the king. Alternatively, Chris Sale also has a solid matchup against the Athletics.

Scroll down a few names and you’ll find Aaron Sanchez for over $2,000 less than Scherzer (on FanDuel). The AL Cy Young candidate has a tough matchup versus the Indians. Josh Tomlin has struggled of late, and he’s always homer prone. I expect Sanchez to get some serious run support.

I’ve been riding the Robbie Ray bargain train for weeks. Unfortunately, his price has entered the upper mid-tier where his short outings and inconsistent performance make him a questionable investment. Aside from Scherzer, Ray may be the most likely pitcher to reach 10 strikeouts. He also implodes with some regularity. The Padres season numbers say they’re lefty mashers. Just remember they replaced Melvin Upton and Matt Kemp with left-handed hitters.

I recommend avoiding the bargains like David Phelps, Chad Kuhl, and Luke Weaver. They’re solid streaming options in a traditional league, but they’re unlikely to provide the necessary points for a DFS victory.

Stack Targets: Mike Mongomery, Tyrell Jenkins, Clayton Richard, Luis Cessa, Ross Detwiler, Brandon Finnegan, Wily Peralta, Ricky Nolasco, Brett Anderson, Daniel Norris, Mike Fiers

4. SaberSim Observations

Sure enough, Scherzer, Ray, Felix Hernandez, Sale, and Ian Kennedy top the charts. You’ll fine Phelps, Weaver, and Jeremy Hellickson just below the top five. Sanchez received a pessimistic 19th ranking between Kuhl and Anderson.

Stacks include a Coors game, Nationals, Trout, White Sox, Dodgers, Orioles, Astros, and Reds

Programming Note: I took too much time writing about Puig  so I’m skipping the Sunday targets. Sorry folks, I still skipped several things I wanted to say.

I’d consider streaming Julio Urias, Martin Perez, Mike Leake, Ervin Santana, or Chad Green. They’re all desperation plays. Green and Santana are safest.

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.