The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for August 18

Agenda

1. PRP Treatments
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. PRP Treatments

Yesterday, Colin Rea and Aaron Nola received PRP injections for a bum elbow. These infusions are meant to stimulate the body’s own natural healing processes. Athletes of all kinds swear by them – even more than cupping!

There’s just one problem…let me google this for you. There really isn’t any evidence that the procedure works. That doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s a waste of time, but any effect is probably very small.

Take Nola as an example. His UCL strain is considered mild (i.e. Grade 1); the type that should heal on its own very frequently. If he recovers, we can’t give all the credit to the PRP injection. He was already considered likely to make a full recovery with rehab alone.

On the other hand, Rea’s injury sounds more severe. I’m guessing it’s a Grade 2 strain which means there’s some tearing but no rupture. At least that’s what it means for muscles, I assume the same applies for ligaments. If he successfully dodges TJS, we might assign more credit to the PRP procedure.

The next step is gathering more than a couple data points. I believe the first use of PRP in baseball was Bartolo Colon in 2011. Since then, there have been dozens of players reported to have used PRP and probably at least 20 for their UCL. Once we bucket those into the appropriate categories and adjust for various confounders, we’re left with witheringly small samples.

Since we’re in small sample land, we can only comment on very large effects. Unfortunately, science has found no effect in the population at large. And while athletes may respond differently than average Joe’s, we don’t have evidence of that either.

The moral of the story? Don’t expect miracles when your team’s favorite player or fantasy asset receives a PRP injection.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

TulipBlues squeezed past me in the dead of the night with the help of a big game from Yasmany Tomas. Eleven of 20 owners used an underpriced Carlos Carrasco. The leaderboard is updated. We’ll return to FanDuel today for our usual Thursday action.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Two games are early. They’re interesting games featuring Jake Arrieta and a trio of lesser pitchers. Everybody in this contest is going to do one of two things.

1. Play it straight by using Jake Arrieta.
2. Fade by starting Zach Davies

This is your chance to distinguish yourself in a GPP by using Matt Boyd or Clay Buchholz. Beware, they have painful matchups against potent lineups.

Stack Targets: Boyd, Buchholz, Davies

Late: The nine game late slate features a few high end pitchers. Madison Bumgarner is opposed by Jacob deGrom and the Backup Mets at AT&T Park. Either pitcher is a viable pick, but they cost an awful lot for what should be a heavily disputed victory.

You might think the easier play is Jose Fernandez at Great American Ballpark. Of course, that’s basically the second worst stadium for DFS pitchers. Even Fernandez is risky there. Don’t forget, Fernandez has yet to throw more than seven innings this year. Don’t expect it to happen today.

Down in the bargain bin, you’ll find three viable young pitchers. Joe Musgrove is the most talented of the trio. He also has the worst matchup opposite the boom or bust Orioles. The Astros are also boom or bust, so this game could range anywhere from three to 20 runs scored. Kevin Gausman is on the other side, making it an evenly matched contest.

Reynaldo Lopez has a better matchup than Musgrove, but he’s a much less consistent pitcher. The absolute upside is something like seven innings, seven strikeouts, and a couple runs allowed. Just remember you’ll probably get MUCH less than that.

The Padres are no longer roll-over-and-die-terrible against right-handed pitching. They’re still exploitable. Archie Bradley is visiting Petco in what should be an easy outing. Bradley is wildly inconsistent start to start. Sometimes he has fantastic stuff. Usually it’s pretty meh.

Stack Targets: Paul Clemens, Dillon Gee, Rob Whalen, Tyler Duffey

4. SaberSim Observations

Fernandez, Arrieta, Bumgarner, Danny Salazar, and Lopez top the charts today. I’d stay away from Salazar who probably won’t be allowed to labor for long. The Indians won’t want to lose his arm for the stretch run. The inning projection for Lopez smells a little too high. Gausman and deGrom are ranked sixth and seventh.

Nationals, Cubs, Trout, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Red Sox, Marlins, and Dodgers comprise the top stacks today.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: It was a struggle just to come up with Tom Koehler for tomorrow. It’s an ugly day for pitcher streaming. I don’t want to use Koehler versus Gerrit Cole and the Pirates. At least the game is at pitcher friendly PNC Park. Koehler is best used against terribad offenses with terribler opposing pitchers.

Also consider: beating your roster with a crow bar

Pitchers to Exploit: If you’re looking for a desperation start, Wily Peralta has allowed just three runs over 12 innings since returning from his stint in the minors. He even has 11 strikeouts. I’ll believe in him when he can repeat this for a month. Until then, proceed with your pile of Mariners bats.

Also consider: Wade Miley, Collin McHugh, Adam Morgan, Francisco Liriano, Bud Norris, Tim Adleman, Matt Andriese, James Shields, Kendall Graveman, Jose Berrios, Edinson Volquez, Jered Weaver, Wade LeBlanc, Jarred Cosart

Hitters (power): Suddenly, there are all kinds of Yankees to use on the waiver wire – assuming your league isn’t particularly aggressive. I didn’t think Gary Sanchez’s power would translate to the majors for at least a calendar year. He’s already popped five bombs in 53 plate appearances. Regression is coming, but that shouldn’t stop you from using him against Weaver.

Also consider: Seth Smith, Adam Lind, Mike Zunino, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Tyler Austin, Stephen Vogt, Jhonny Peralta, Randal Grichuk

Hitters (speed): I thought this was going to be a big season for Ketel Marte, but he’s been pretty awful. Since returning from injury, he’s batting .080/.172/.080 in 29 plate appearances. Still, you can take a stab at a steal versus Peralta.

Also consider: Michael Bourn, Orlando Arcia, Jarrod Dyson, Jorge Polanco, Tim Anderson

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

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