- The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
- Daily DFS
- SaberSim Observations
- Tomorrow’s Targets
1. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
I had no idea so many of you would pick Jon Gray. I audibled to him thinking I’d be the only guy out of 20 owners to pay for him. After all, there were several comparably talented pitchers available for at least $1,000 less. Instead, seven of you took him.
Joe Musgrove was $2,300 less than Gray and he earned 35 more points. Evhustler was one of two owners to benefit from his good score and cheap price. He also received strong efforts from Jonathan Lucroy, Adam Duvall, and Billy Hamilton. Congrats are in order. The leaderboard is updated.
I’m taking the day off from DFS. Enjoy your weekend.
2. Daily DFS
Early: Four games are early. Thunderstorms could affect the latter half of the contest in New York. All eight pitchers are appropriately priced and viable. That makes for a fun contest. I’d probably stay away from Luke Weaver versus the Cubs (because, the Cubs…) and Matt Andriese at New York (he doesn’t throw many innings). However, they’re cheap enough to play if you want to build a unique lineup.
Late: The other 11 games are at night. Cleveland is a risk for postponement tonight. I’d steer clear entirely unless the weather report changes dramatically. Madison Bumgarner tops the charts tonight. He’s hosting Baltimore at AT&T Park. Jacob deGrom is also of interest versus the Padres. It’s another deep day for mid-tier pitchers too. Let’s run down a few.
Hisashi Iwakuma generally produces good-not-great outings. He’s been brushing greatness lately with three big outings in his last five. The Oakland lineup isn’t particularly fierce, and the Coliseum helps pitchers.
Tyler Anderson has been consistently good regardless of venue or opponent. Today he has it easy at Citizen’s Bank Park. The Phillies did beat up on Gray last night which just goes to show that it can be hopeless projecting single games. I also like Jerad Eickhoff on the other side of this matchup. It could be a sneaky pitcher’s duel.
Reynaldo Lopez would have my attention opposite the Braves, but I assume he’s innings constrained. Remember, the profile for him is big strikeout stuff and a lack of command. He mostly fills up the strike zone which is the absolute worst way to lack command.
Either side of the Dan Straily – Zach Davies matchup could work out for owners. I don’t see a lot of upside for either pitcher, and they cost enough to limit your hitting options. Adam Conley has a higher ceiling then them versus the White Sox. The downside here is his occasional bouts with wildness. Eno recently looked at leaders in non-competitive pitches. Conley was among the worst in the league.
Stack Targets: Clay Buchholz, Dillon Gee, Mike Clevinger, Jarred Cosart, Matt Shoemaker (banking on storm shortened outing), Matt Boyd, Kendall Graveman, Archie Bradley, James Shields, Rob Whalen, Tyler Duffey
3. SaberSim Observations
Our buddies at the Sim say deGrom, Bumgarner, Brandon McCarthy, Masahiro Tanaka, and Kevin Gausman. I could see going with Gausman as part of a Bumgarner fade. Otherwise, count me out. Stacks include the Red Sox, Cubs, Reds, Nationals, and Rangers.
4. Tomorrow’s Targets
Pitchers to Start: I believe in Luis Severino although there’s at least a chance his future is as an elite reliever. Severino has struggled with home runs allowed. A matchup against a powered-down Rays offense should help him get back on track. This is a high risk, high reward player. If you want a low risk, low reward option, well, too bad.
Pitchers to Exploit: After failing as a LOOGY earlier this year, the Padres are turning to Clayton Richard for a spot start. Generally, if you’re terrible as a lefty specialist, you aren’t going to experience much success as a starter. The last time he was a starter (also with the Padres), he posted a 7.01 ERA.
Hitters (power): The Athletics have some high profile lefty mashers. Somewhat under the radar is Jake Smolinski. The righty is slashing .371/.435/.677 against lefties in a small sample with nearly twice as many walks as strikeouts and a 6X boost to his ISO. He won’t maintain those gaudy rates, but that doesn’t make him any less interesting. He’s a high contact hitter with a solid approach at the plate and non-trivial power.
Hitters (speed): The Brewers so very much want Orlando Arcia to stick as their second hitter. He looks a little overmatched at the plate too me. It’s encouraging to see a high contact rate, but he isn’t hitting the ball with any authority. On Thursday, he had his first extra base hit and stolen base. Maybe that’ll help to jump start him.
Also consider: Cesar Hernandez
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