The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for April 30

Agenda

1. SaberSim Week
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. SaberSim Week (and conditionals)

Starting next Monday I’ll be taking a week long look behind the curtain at SaberSim. We post a few of the top level numbers here on FanGraphs. If you pay for the tool, it comes with a host of interesting toys. Matt Hunter described how to use conditionals on Thursday. I’ll definitely be taking a closer look at those soon.

On a different topic, I believe Juan Nicasio bribed the weather gods (or Coors officials). Nicasio went from a road start at the worst pitcher’s stadium in baseball to a home start at PNC Park versus a mediocre Reds lineup. He pitched seven strong innings with eight strikeouts. I was expecting four innings and eight runs only the day before. This start will do a lot to keep him in the rotation.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

It appears yesterday’s DraftKings contest didn’t run. I’m not sure how close we came to filling it. The moral of the story is that I’m not making contests of more than 30 people for awhile. For those curious, here’s the leaderboard.

I’ve created a free FanDuel league for the early games – just for fun. I won’t have an opportunity to vet any rosters today.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Six games fall into the early bucket. Chris Archer, Jacob deGrom, Jordan Zimmermann, and John Lackey represent the top of the pool. Lackey’s game will be postponed.

This Zimmermann game is interesting. Zim’s allowed just one run on the season. His 0.35 ERA belies a 4.31 FIP. His velocity is down over one mph, and his strikeout rate has plummeted to 5.54 K/9. He’s opposed by the Twins and their feast or famine offense.

Cheaper options are attractive too. Jaime Garcia and Joe Ross could have a pitcher’s duel. They’re both high risk, high reward choices. J.A. Happ’s matchup with the Rays offers similar risk and reward. The Rays have a few lefty mashers, but their aggression gets them into trouble.

Stack Targets: Matt Cain, Tyler Duffey, Teheran

Late: The main contest has Zack Greinke, Francisco Liriano, Yordano Ventura, and Matt Shoemaker at the top of the price pool on FanDuel. Liriano ($9,000) and Ventura ($8,300) is the only ones I’d try today.

Rick Porcello is a little like Zimmermann. He’s been surprisingly successful this year, but there’s cause for concern. His velocity is down over one mph and his swinging strike rate is unchanged. His 10.52 K/9 is probably unsustainable. To this point, the Yankees offense has been outperformed by the Phillies and Braves. Only the Rays have scored fewer runs.

I haven’t said many nice things about Ross Stripling. You can try just about anybody against the Padres. They don’t score runs, and they strike out with the worst of them.

If you gambling on complete unknowns, Kevin Gausman looked mighty impressive in his season debut. Command is his biggest issue.

Stack Targets: Colin Rea, Chris Rusin, Alfredo Simon, Wade Miley, Mat Latos, Trevor Bauer, Shoemaker

4. SaberSim Observations

SaberSim thinks Bauer is the fourth best pitcher today. I’ll take a pass on that. Hell, I expect the Phillies to chase him by the start of the sixth inning. I’ll call six walks and a home run allowed. The other pitching surprise is the lousy projection for Ventura. He’s expected to be comparable to Chase Anderson, and Duffey. I don’t buy it. I suppose if you believe in the elevated walk rate, then regression is overdue.

The Brewers stack did diddly yesterday. It’s highly touted once against opposite Wei-Yin Chen. Marlins also feature prominently against Anderson. Also try Rangers, Orioles, and Pirates.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets

Pitchers to Start: All the aces pitch tomorrow. Really. The Twins (improbable) ace is Ricky Nolasco. The mediocre righty is posting vintage Joe Blanton numbers. And if that doesn’t get you excited, well…I get it. The Tigers are always a terrible matchup, but at least he has a shot at a win against The Pelf.

Also consider: Chad Bettis, Nate Eovaldi

Pitchers to Exploit: The Athletics have a lot of fantasy streaming options in their lineup. They’re all a good pick versus Doug Fister. The former ground balling stud throws 85 mph, no longer induces whiffs, and isn’t even commanding the zone (4.37 BB/9). He’s not a major league pitcher. When Lance McCullers returns soon, there’s a good chance we’ll never see Fister again in the majors.

Also consider: Ubaldo Jimenez, Jeff Locke, Wily Peralta, Tom Koehler, Mike Pelfrey, Matt Wisler, Shelby Miller

Hitters (power): Good news for 79 percent of you – Joe Mauer is unowned in your league. His ridiculous season has been hidden by a lack of run production. He’s hitting .313/.451/.438 with almost no swinging strikes. If only somebody would get on base ahead of him.

Also consider: Ben Paulsen, Jake Lamb, Enrique Hernandez, Seth Smith, Adam Lind, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Stephen Vogt, Chris Coghlan, Eddie Rosario, Orlando Arcia, Derek Dietrich, Justin Bour, Adam Duvall

Hitters (speed): Anthony Gose has shown more power than speed this season while whiffing at his usual prodigious rate. However, he has his occasional days of usefulness. A start against Nolasco and the Twins bullpen isn’t a bad gamble for a stolen base. Your alternatives are limited.

Also consider: Coco Crisp, Jonathan Villar

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Chicago is screwed today. Watch out for Pittsburgh too.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.