The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for April 25

Agenda

1. Obvious Aces
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. Obvious Aces

I often place emphasis on players I expect to be good but unpopular. In a GPP, it’s important to find at least one unique point scorer – otherwise you’ll have almost no chance at a victory. You’d have to pick the top point scorer at each position.

While I may shy away from an overly popular hitter, I’m not always afraid of obvious aces. Today, Noah Syndergaard is the clear top pick. He’s at home against the Reds. Think of Thor as vintage Justin Verlander without the staying power.

When Syndergaard is the only high octane pitcher, I’ll build a lineup around him. Even if I know he’ll be 60 percent owned. Luckily, there are plenty of alternatives tonight. I cover them in section three.

These deep scenarios are challenging. With so many good pitchers opposite a bad offense, Syndergaard’s ownership might fall closer to 20 percent on FanDuel. It’s a guessing game – will he or won’t he be unpopular enough to use?

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Congratulations are in order for wwbbd2015. He and/or she won the TDG DFS league on Sunday. Corey Kluber, Troy Tulowitzki, Melky Cabrera, and Ezequiel Carrera carried the roster. I’m not surprised somebody rostered cheap Carerra. I am shocked that four people turned that trick.

I finished last again. My roster of highly volatile sluggers slumped. Five players zeroed out as part of a career worst 54 point performance (18 points in the old format). Here’s the Big Board.

Today’s league is a $2, 30-player DraftKings contest. See you there.

3. Daily DFS 

All 13 games are a part of the evening contest. It’s a fantastic day for pitchers. Watch out for rain in Detroit, Atlanta, and Minnesota. The Tigers game is the hairiest of the bunch, but I think they’ll get it in.

You better believe I’m using Syndergaard against the Cincinnati Reds. And even though there are concerns about Madison Bumgarner’s health, he’s pitched well enough to use versus the Padres. I’ll let other roll the dice on Chris Archer and Zack Greinke.

Danny Salazar isn’t much cheaper than the aces. Despite a hefty price tag, I’d take a long look at him against the Twins. Minnesota is one of the most strikeout prone teams in the league.

Jordan Zimmermann hasn’t allowed a run this season. Probability says he’ll cough some up against the Athletics. However, if you wanted to bet on a continued scoreless streak, the matchup couldn’t get much better than this. I might avoid him if the weather report doesn’t improve.

Ian Kennedy also has a favorable pairing opposite the Angels. Mike Trout is showing some signs of life. The rest of the Halos aren’t particularly threatening. Marcus Stroman and Rick Porcello are also good choices.

Stack Targets: Jeff Locke, Chad Bettis, Doug Fister, Tommy Milone, Julio Teheran, Nate Eovaldi, Cesar Ramos

4. SaberSim Observations

No big surprises out of the SaberSim numbers machine. It likes Garrett Richards, Taijuan Walker, and Kevin Gausman more than I do. It’s also a little down on Ian Kennedy and Jordan Zimmermann. I’d be careful with them too if they didn’t have such desirable matchups. Salazar is second fiddle to Thor – SaberSim projects just three fewer points for Salazar.

Oh, a Coors stack. Load up on Padres and Rockies if you take a cheap starter like Porcello. The White Sox are sacrificing Miguel Gonzalez to the altar of Toronto. With all these tasty hitters, it’s almost worth fading Syndergaard.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Hill, Cole, Freese, Dyson

Pitchers to Start: The Tigers have a handful of strikeout prone hitters, making this a high risk/reward matchup for Rich Hill. He’s thrived with a strangely whiff-tastic fastball and goodish curve. He’s already fired off two 10 strikeout performances. Tomorrow could be another…or a disaster outing.

Also consider: Brandon Finnegan, Bartolo Colon, Kyle Hendricks

Pitchers to Exploit: Gerrit Cole is the kind of pitcher who can be surprisingly bad in Colorado. On the one hand, his velocity and horizontal movement will remain in place. However, he’s confident in his stuff and could surprise himself with hanging pitches. The Rockies still have a punishing lineup.

Also consider: R.A. Dickey, Mike Pelfrey, Matt Wisler, A.J. Griffin, Cody Anderson, Ricky Nolasco, Jorge de la Rosa, Shelby Miller, Jered Weaver, Nate Karns, Tom Koehler

Hitters (power): David Freese is a middle of the order hitter against an exploitable lefty at Coors Field. He’s only seven percent owned on Yahoo.

Also consider: Chase Utley, Franklin Gutierrez, Brandon Moss, Jeremy Hazelbaker, Jake Lamb, Ben Paulsen, Joe Mauer, Chris Coghlan

Hitters (speed): For all the preseason hype about the full-time version of Jarrod Dyson, the fantasy-verse has been slow to react to his return. Weaver more-than-survived the White Sox last week, but I don’t expect a repeat performance against the Royals. They’re just too good at waiting back and taking their singles.

Also consider: Angel Pagan, Jonathan Villar, Coco Crisp, Jimmy Rollins

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.