Here Come the Prospects: Royals and Twins

When it comes to fantasy baseball, not all prospects are created equally. In keeper leagues and dynasty leagues it’s important to have strategies around your prospects; you don’t want to just randomly grab a Top 10 or 20 prospect and hope for the best.

Along with skill, knowing a player’s ETA is key. Is the player advanced enough to help in 2016… or is he headed for a 2019 debut? Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a talented dude but he’s not likely to visit the Great White North until 2020. Chicago (AL) drafted Carson Fulmer in 2015 with the eighth overall pick but he’s considered advanced enough to perhaps help the club in ’17. And then there’s Colorado’s Trevor Story, who turned the Jose Reyes soap opera and a strong spring into a ’16 starting gig.

As a result, your strategy around acquiring prospects should vary. If you’re grabbing a guy earmarked to help in 2017 or later, you should look at them like a stock — an investment that you hope to see increase in value before you cash out (either by adding to your active roster or by trading for an opportunity to win sooner). You also have to consider if you’re truly committed to a long-range prospect and willing to commit a roster spot to someone who may not help for three or four years — if at all. Prospects with a ’16 or ’17 should be viewed as players that can be valuable (albeit potentially inconsistent) contributors to the current makeup of your roster at a reasonable cost.

Over the course of the next few weeks we’ll have a look at the expect time frames for key prospects in each organization. So far we’ve looked at:

Dodgers/Padres
Giants/Rockies
Diamondbacks/Angels
Rangers/Athletics
Mariners/Astros
Cubs/Brewers
Reds/Cardinals
Pirates/White Sox

Kansas City Royals

2016 Sleeper: Brooks Pounders, RHP: A second round pick all the way back in 2009, this 25-year-old hurler has battled through inconsistency and — especially in the past two years — injuries. Pounders has pitched just 99 innings combined over the past two years. When healthy, he showed a lot of potential at Double-A in 2015 and has followed that up with four strong ’16 appearances at the Triple-A level. His secondary stuff is inconsistent but he could settle in as a back-end starter or potentially a hard-throwing reliever (although he’s in the wrong organization to try and break into that role).

2017 Stud: Hunter Dozier, 3B: Dozier has endured a rollercoaster career to date: Surprise first rounder, outstanding debut, up-and-down first full year, poor 2015 and now a solid start to 2016. If he can continue to succeed, he could be on a collision course with the Majors in ’17 — although he likely won’t push Mike Moustakas off the position until ’18 when the veteran becomes a free agent (and likely prices himself out of KC). In the meantime, Dozier could serve as an offensive-minded utility player.

Long-term Investment: Ashe Russell, RHP: A first-rounder from 2015, Russell has all the makings of a top-rotation starter if he fully develops. The right-hander can hit the mid-90s with his heater and shows potential with his breaking ball. He also has an excellent pitcher’s frame that could still add muscle. However, he’s probably three to four years away from The Show and opened 2016 in extended spring training with an eye to opening the year in a short-season league in June.

Minnesota Twins

2016 Sleeper: J.T. Chargois, RHP: A second round pick out of Rice University in 2012, Chargois pitched just 16 innings in his first three pro seasons due to a litany of injuries. Despite the lengthy layoff, the right-hander can still hit 100 mph with his heater. It’s the secondary stuff that’s suffered, though. He throws both a power curve and a changeup and he’ll likely need just one to develop as a one-inning reliever with that kind of heat. Chargois opened 2016 in double-A with 5.0 innings pitched, no walks and nine strikeouts.

2017 Stud: Tyler Jay, LHP: A hard-throwing reliever from the left side in college, Jay has been moved to the starting rotation as a pro. He’s shown a lot of potential in his new role and is off to a solid start in 2016 at the high-A ball level. His fastball-slider combination is top-notch but he’s still learning to consistently command his curveball and changeup — and he’ll need at least one of those to develop if he’s going to remain a starter. Personally, I prefer him as a reliever and he could probably be in the Majors right now in that role.

Long-term Investment: Nick Gordon, SS: The fifth overall selection of the 2014 draft, Nick doesn’t have the same speed as his brother (and somewhat late bloomer) Dee Gordon but he has more polish and should reach his ceiling more quickly. The younger Gordon’s value is tied up mostly in his ability to hit for average and ability to steal a few bases. Currently in high-A ball, he should be ready to take over the shortstop position in Minnesota in 2018 or ’19.