- Scooter Story
- Daily DFS
- SaberSim Observations
- Tomorrow’s Targets – Eickhoff, Shoemaker, Hicks, Pagan
- Factor Grid
1. Scooter Story
Scooter Gennett has a career high of nine home runs in 474 plate appearances. He’s already hit three in 26 trips to the plate. At this time of year, most forms of analysis are protected under the SSS Convention. I still took a peek at several peripherals. His batted ball data looks like old Gennett aside from a ludicrous 42.9 percent HR/FB ratio and a 5.3 percent soft contact rate.
Obviously, regression is coming. The question is, have we been introduced to a new Gennett? I’ve watched an inordinate number of Brewers broadcasts, and they can’t stop gushing about how much stronger he is this year. Undoubtedly, they wouldn’t have the same fixation if he were 2-for-26. Still, the fast start and BSOHL narrative has my attention.
There’s one more SSS difference worth noting – he’s actually taking balls. Gennett typically swings at way more pitches outside the zone than an average hitter (in 2015, 43.8% O-Swing, average 31.3% O-Swing). If continues to lay off bad pitches, he’ll walk more, make contact with pitches closer to the center of the zone, and work more hitter’s counts.
What do you guys make of Gennett this year? I’d particularly like to hear from people who have actually “scouted” him (i.e. watched a Brewers broadcast).
I also have some quick thoughts on Trevor Story. His swing is definitely geared for power. Combined with Coors Field, I could see him swatting 30 to 40 home runs a season with ease. I’m less certain that he can hit for any sort of average. We could be looking at a .230 hitter with a sub-.300 OBP. The power is more than enough to sustain him as a fantasy stud, but he’ll also have some deep, painful slumps (if I’m right).
It’s also possible he’ll post a solid average in the .250 to .260 range on the strength of an above average hard hit rate. Time will tell.
2. Daily DFS – Maeda, Kluber, Sanchez
Early: I’m all for small contests, but a two-game set is crossing the line. The pitchers run between $7,200 and $7,800 on FanDuel. I like Kenta Maeda most. And I’m staying away.
Late: You have your pick of 10 games in the late slate. Noah Syndergaard versus Jose Fernandez is the game of the night. They’re both very expensive. Also very good. It’s too bad they cancel each other out.
If you prefer an ace who isn’t cancelled out, Corey Kluber should enjoy his matchup against the aggressive Rays. A complete game is possible.
I’m not a big fan of Gio Gonzalez, but I’ll consider using him against the Braves. His $9,300 FanDuel price is about $1,000 too high.
Yesterday, I suggested exploiting Aaron Sanchez. For DFS purposes, you can start him. He’s exceptionally cheap at $6,700. If you want to stand up to the aces at a fraction of the cost, you’ll need somebody who could throw seven innings with more than a strikeout per frame. Sanchez is one of the few picks who offers that upside. The downside is chilling.
3. SaberSim Observations
Once again, SaberSim is seeing the same things as me. Fernandez and Thor top the charts with Gio, Kluber, and Maeda in the second tier. The projection system thinks Morton is a steal against San Diego. I’ll pass.
It’s a day for stacks. Both sides of the Coors game look tasty as do the Red Sox, Astros, and Blue Jays. Beware, Tanaka could shutdown the Jays offense. I don’t know why Jacoby Ellsbury is chilling all by his lonesome in the middle of page one.
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Eickhoff, Shoemaker, Hicks, Pagan
Pitchers to Start: Jerad Eickhoff is a kitchen sink pitcher. He has a bunch of average offerings with above average command. He hasn’t looked particularly sharp all spring, but he still survived his first outing. An easier matchup against the Padres could help to get him back on track. Needless to say, picking Eickhoff right now is risky in the extreme.
Pitchers to Exploit: Back in 2014, Matt Shoemaker took baseball by storm with the help of elite command. Since then, his command falls more into the “merely good” category. A lot of pitchers have very productive careers with merely good command. Unfortunately, Shoemaker doesn’t have the necessary stuff to get by without elite touch. He’s hit and homer prone.
Hitters (power): The Yankees appear committed to starting Aaron Hicks anytime a lefty takes the hill. Hicks, a switch-hitter, has a history of hitting for power against southpaws. He also has decent speed, making him a five category threat against Happ.
Hitters (speed): Angel Pagan is an easy add for the series at Coors Field. The switch-hitter is in one his rare healthy and productive modes. While he’s not much of a power threat, the spacious Coors outfield gives him extra opportunities to spray singles.
5. The Factor Grid
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
Most of the games will be played in 50 degree temperatures. Not exactly balmy baseball weather.
This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam