The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for May 26

Agenda

1. Tinkering
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. Tinkering

The illustrious “they” say the devil is in the details. Then tinkering is the deviling of those details. As humans, we’re wired to remember our failures. This helps us to not repeat devastating mistakes over and over again. It’s a big reason humanity is what it is. Sometimes we get false signals as the result of this evolutionary trait.

This season, tinkering has lost me a lot of money. Twice, I audibled away from massively productive first draft lineups. It’s all part of my process. Last year, I discovered over time that my old process now overlapped too heavily with other users. DFS was once easy money – now it’s no longer enough to pick the “right” matchups and contexts. Every small fish is using a similar approach. The big fish have their own techniques. So I build a first run, then I figure out how to cut down on overlap without killing projected production.

Those two near misses got under my skin. There’s nothing worse than having the right lineup then tossing it aside. Sure, I could use multiple lineups. In my experience, there’s no profit in a multi-lineup approach. Your best bet to actually make some money is to hit the lottery with one lineup in multiple contests.

Getting to the point, yesterday, I stuck with my first draft lineup. It flopped. More importantly, everybody except Mikie Mahtook had a ridiculous ownership rate. Even if most of my team had spiked, I had an uphill battle to actually make money. This is what the tinkering layer is built to avoid. And so, I’ll go back to tinkering today. Hopefully I don’t throw away a big winner in the process.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Yesterday’s contest didn’t fill. I guess I needed to advertise a second time. We’re going to FanDuel today, so that email list I hyped up yesterday won’t be used.

If you’re interested in joining FanDuel, here is a referral link. They send me kickbacks (I’ve “earned” $1.24 from my referrees spread over four years), but I’m not aware of them offering anything to new users. I like that DK gives something tangible.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: It’s a true Thin Thursday. Only three games are in the early slate. It also happens that most of the desirable pitchers are in this group. Jose Fernandez is the easy top pick against a strikeout prone Rays lineup. They’re all swinging hot bats, but they tend to power down versus righties. The opposite end of this one is Drew Smyly. I anticipate a pitcher’s duel.

Gerrit Cole has a tough matchup against the Diamondbacks at PNC Park. I didn’t notice this at the time, but Cole struck out zero Rockies last week. And he threw seven innings. Hopefully he whiffs a few DBacks. Pat Corbin is on the other side.

The final game pits J.A. Happ versus CC Sabathia. I have to think everybody will be targeting this game. I like Happ to coast to an easy win despite Sabathia’s recent success.

Stack Targets: Corbin, Happ, Sabathia

Late: The other five games are late. One of those – the shindig in Kansas City – could be postponed. In a normal slate, I wouldn’t look twice at any of these pitchers. At least not with their matchups. I like Jon Gray as a cheap guy, but I sure hate targeting the Red Sox offense at home. Clay Buchholz is in his bad mode still. Joe Ross is solid, but I like the Cardinals to push three runs across. Lance McCullers and Kevin Gausman offer ceiling and devastating floor.

Stack Targets: Wily Peralta, Gray, Matt Wisler, Miguel Gonzalez, Mike Leake, Buchholz, Danny Duffy

4. SaberSim Observations

As I suspected, JoFery, Cole, and Smyly garner top honors. And look, there’s McCullers and Gausman in fourth and fifth. While I still maintain that Matt Wisler is terrible, SaberSim has him as sixth  best. I don’t hate the pick either – I have him in my first draft lineup. It’s not like the Brewers have a scary offense.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: Robbie Ray has his share of flaws. In addition to too many walks, a lack of command means everything can go wrong in any count. Ray has the repertoire of a successful pitcher if he ever gets the secondary skills together. I’ll happily use him against a crappy Padres lineup.

Also consider: Alex Wood, Adam Conley, Mike Fiers

Pitchers to Exploit: So many exploits. The Mariners have plenty of free, high value hitters versus Pat Dean. The Twins lefty is a soft-tossing fly ball pitcher who may also be homer prone. The Mariners are destined to throw some crooked numbers.

Also consider: Adam Morgan, Mike Wright, Williams Perez, Jon Niese, John Lamb, Zach Davies, Matt Cain, Eddie Butler, Christian Friedrich, Matt Shoemaker, Michael Fulmer, Sean Manaea, Pat Dean

Hitters (power): Of those available Mariners, Franklin Gutierrez is a must-own. His season numbers are creeping upwards to match his gaudy hard hit rates. It’s only a matter of time before everybody is back on the Guti bandwagon.

Also consider: Tommy Joseph, Dae-ho Lee, Chris Iannetta, Brandon Drury, Yasmany Tomas, Jarrett Parker, Adam Duvall, Logan Morrison

Hitters (speed): Cameron Maybin is rake city since returning from the disabled list. How about .545/.583/.636 in 37 plate appearances with four stolen bases. He’s opposed by Manaea. The lefty prospect has been a disappointment in his debut.

Also consider: Tony Kemp, Jimmy Rollins, Ichiro Suzuki, Rajai Davis, Jose Ramirez

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Watch out for storms in KC.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.