The Daily Grind: DFS, Streamers, and More for April 16

by
April 16, 2016

Agenda

  1. White Analysis
  2. Daily DFS
  3. SaberSim Observations
  4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Tropeano, Moscot, Drury, Mallex
  5. Factor Grid

1. White Analysis

No, it’s not racism. It’s Tyler White. My co-worker Paul Kastava spilled 800 or so words on White’s viability. My take away – sell high.

Yea, I phoned in this part. It’s Saturday morning…

2. Daily DFS – Finnegan, Scherzer, Koehler, Shelby

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Yesterday’s Grind

It’s a split action Saturday with seven games early, seven late, and one in no-man’s land.

Early: If it’s aces you desire, how about Jake Arrieta, Felix Hernandez, David Price, and Matt Harvey. The Mets second ace has the best matchup (Cleveland). He’s also been extremely mortal through two starts.

If you’re aiming to dip into the bargain bin, your best option is a high risk/reward pick of Brandon Finnegan. Personally, he’s just not for me. He has some stuff, but that command can get very sketchy. The Cardinals tend to punish poor command pitchers.

Stack Targets: Christian Bergman, Chris Young, Ricky Nolasco, CC Sabathia, Jered Weaver

Late: Max Scherzer is the ace of the late slate. And he draws the Phillies! With respect to Johnny Cueto, his rematch against the Dodgers isn’t ideal.

If Scherzer is out of your price range, Tom Koehler is my second string choice. He’s opposite Bud Norris and the Braves. And he’s at home for those of you who keep track of such things with respect to Koehler.

We FanGraphs folks tend to hate on Shelby Miller. Nothing wrong with using him against the Padres. They’ve now scored a whopping six runs in eight games outside of Coors Field. Your final option is Aaron Nola. He’s pretty good, but how is he going to win against Scherzer?

Stack Targets: Norris, Jon Niese, Andrew Cashner, Taylor Jungmann, Colby Lewis, Yovani Gallardo, Scott Kazmir, Collin McHugh, Justin Verlander

3. SaberSim Observations

SaberSim has mostly agreed with my analysis this year, but it’s throwing a curve today. After Arrieta and Harvey, McHugh, Cashner, and Kazmir are the third through fifth rates starters. I think all three are exploits.

The Blue Jays stack remains valuable despite their matchup against Price – at least according to SaberSim. This is definitely a chance to stack the high profile offense at a low ownership rate. Orioles versus Lewis, Astros opposite Verlander, and Mets against Josh Tomlin are the other popular stacks.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Tropeano, Moscot, Drury, Mallex

Pitchers to Start: The easy top streamer for tomorrow is Nick Tropeano. The Angel will face a strikeout prone Twins offense. Tropeano is a fly ball pitcher with the ability to record solid strikeout and walk rates. He’s kind of like a poor man’s Collin McHugh. His fastball is a below average pitch, but he makes up for it with an above average change and a plus slider.

Also consider: Zach Davies, Juan Nicasio, Kyle Gibson, Chris Bassitt, Kris Medlen

Pitchers to Exploit: It’s another good day to load up on Cardinals. Reds 13th starter Jon Moscot will take the hill. He’s a no-stuff righty with low strikeout rates and unexceptional command. It’s unclear to me how he ever reached the upper minors. Surely Jamie Moyer was available for this start…

Also consider: Jhoulys Chacin, Jarred Cosart, Steven Wright, Charlie Morton, Tyler Chatwood, Mike Wright

Hitters (power): The Diamondbacks decided to bring Brandon Drury north with the big club after a hot spring. Unfortunately, he was mostly stuck behind equally hot Jake Lamb. Where Lamb has remained toasty, Drury has struggled to get going with inconsistent playing time. He must be nearing a demotion, but he’ll get a few more chances versus left-handed pitching. If he can’t hit Robbie Erlin, he needs a minor league assignment to get back on track.

Also consider: Derek Norris, Jeremy Hazelbaker, Brandon Moss, Matt Adams, Daniel Nava, A.J. Pierzynski, Nick Markakis, Adonis Garcia, Kelly Johnson, Seth Smith, Didi Gregorius

Hitters (speed): If you were to make a lineup of only players found on your fantasy waiver wire, it would look substantially better than the Braves’ roster. The one guy you might want to use is leadoff man Mallex Smith. He’s 1-for-17 with a couple walks and a high strikeout rate. I feared this could be the case, and it wouldn’t shock me if he’s overmatched by Cosart’s heater.

Also consider: Chris Owings, Coco Crisp, Jonathan Villar, Michael Taylor

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment. 





 

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