The Daily Grind: DFS At Noon

Today’s main slate runs at 12:10pm ET on most sites. So, uh, get to it.

Also, there will be no Daily Grind tomorrow or next Monday. I will be out on vacation.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. A Thorne In The Orioles Side

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

Cubbieblues found the right combination of elite bats, Max Scherzer, and Jeff Samardzija. Personally, I decided to go with aces OR bats which worked slightly less well. Congrats and Leaderboard.

So I have good news and I have bad news. The good news is we don’t need to rush to draft for the main slate. The bad is it’s because FantasyDraft saw fit to provide us with a two-game evening slate. Lest you think, “oh, that’s almost normal,” it starts at 6:10pm ET. See you there. (<—that’s the link).

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

There’s more wind in Wrigley. It’s either blowing out to right field or it’s a left-to-right cross breeze. Who can tell. The winds sometimes shift mid-afternoon which also happens to be mid-game.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Early: Stephen Strasburg is the prince of the six-game early slate. The Mets lineup is a shambles (look at their “outfielders“). Year after year, this second New York club finds a new way to be hilarious. Strasburg is not only the top player, he’s also an excellent value. This has been a consistent theme this season. I don’t recall it being so common in past years. On the other side of the matchup is Steven Matz ($14,500) who is eminently playable if only because it’s a thin slate and contrarianism could be the key to victory.

Matthew Boyd ($19,600) is the second priciest hurler. The Marlins have the worst offense in the league, although they’re also packed with high value (but low ceiling) bargains today. Boyd feels pretty safe at this price. Trevor Richards ($14,700) may be the better value. The Tigers are tied with the Marlins with a 68 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. Richards should be expected to deliver about a strikeout per inning today. His rampant homeritis and walk issues may be mitigated by the weak opponent.

Aaron Nola ($18,500) is visiting Jon Lester ($16,300). With the wind probably blowing out and elite offenses in play, they’re both overpriced by a cool $2,000. Since it’s a thin slate, you can look past the relatively high costs if you so choose.

Masahiro Tanaka ($17,500) is destined to receive copious run support. He may also run into his own issues with allowing home runs. For me, this is a par value matchup against a bad but occasionally explosive Orioles offense.

Jordan Lyles ($16,000) hosts Antonio Senzatela ($12,900) at PNC Park. The combination of spacious venue and timid offenses makes this a nice opportunity to use both hurlers.

Favorite Plays: Strasburg, Boyd, Lyles, Richards

Stack Targets: Ryan Weber, Clayton Richard, Senzatela, Dylan Bundy

Late: We get to sort through four pitchers this evening. Corbin Martin ($17,700) is bound to be the most popular. The White Sox are strikeout prone and rarely walk. We saw what that looks like on Tuesday with Justin Verlander on the bump. Their aggressive approach can also occasionally yield unexpectedly positive outcomes. Refer to last night opposite Gerrit Cole. Through two starts, Martin has induced surprisingly few swinging strikes given his track record. Walks have been an issue too. The Pale Hose will probably help.

Lucas Giolito is finally pitching to his potential. His velocity is up over one mph from last season. He’s also buffed his swinging strike and strikeout rates. Giolito has turned in decent outings against good opponents and exceptional performances versus bad opponents. The Astros are his most difficult challenge to date. As the TDGI is a two-entry contest, I will probably have one Giolito lineup and one Astros stack. Dibs! You can’t copy me.

Ugh, now I have to figure out who is scheduled to Follow for the Rays. Hold my coffee…

…uh, I have no clue. Jalen Beeks threw 83 pitches on Tuesday. Yonny Chirinos tossed 49 yesterday. I guess Hunter Wood (Tuesday’s Opener) is available. This looks like a bullpen game to me. If you want to get very clever, Diego Castillo and Jose Alvarado almost HAVE to pitch. They’re the only two pitchers on the staff besides Charlie Morton and Black Snell who haven’t pitched in the last two days. Before you get too excited, they cost over $10,000 for an average of under four points per game. Blech. Maybe Ryne Stanek ($12,100) is the guy to use.

It’s much easier on the Indians side. Adam Plutko ($14,700) is coming off a strong season debut against the Orioles. The credit goes entirely to Baltimore. Plutko was first team All Struggles in Triple-A prior to his promotion. I expect the Rays to go ham.

Favorite Plays: Martin, obviously

Stack Targets: All of them

4. SaberSim Says…

I’ve set the Simulator to “all day.” I’ll ignore the mid-afternoon games which got left out of both slates. Strasburg leads the way followed by Nola, Boyd, Lyles, and Tanaka. Looks right to me. Strasburg, Matz, Senzatela, Richards, and Bundy are the best values. Who wants to be the hero using Dylan Bombko against the Yankees?

Austin Meadows, Rhys Hoskins, J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, and Alex Bregman are the premium bats. Starlin Castro, Austin Dean, Kyle Schwarber, Garrett Cooper, and Yonder Alonso are the Walmart bats.

5. A Thorne In The Orioles Side

Round-and-round the baseball diamond…

Gary Thorne salvaged the Orioles season during this current series.

Growing up, we used to have an intentional “throw it to the backstop” play. Our home field had a wooden board which always popped the ball right back to the catcher for a cheap out. This is different and yet the same.