The Daily Grind: deGrom, Salazar, Van Slyke

Agenda

1. DFS Chatter
2. Daily DFS – deGrom and Salazar
3. Tomorrow’s Targets – No, Kendrick, Van Slyke, Lagares
4. Factor Grid

1. DFS Chatter

My chief concern for the DFS industry is the prevalence of sharks in the minnow pool. If somebody uses an algorithm to build rosters for the FanDuel Grand Slam ($25 multi-entry), there is no marginal cost to prevent them from also entering in the $1 Sac Fly. At least with poker, a pro is limited by the number of open tables.

This is a potential problem because the pros eat away at the odds of the future pros. Tomorrows sharks need to bankroll themselves by winning today. Sometimes, it won’t happen if the sharks of today get in the way. DFS platforms should attempt to encourage the development of as many highly active players as possible.

My proposal is to create some sort of novice-only space. DraftKings has a beginners-only pool, but it’s only available for your first 100 contests. If you enter 10 contests a day, then you’re a beginner for 10 days. Alternatively, a site could limit the availability of certain contests based on bankroll, daily spending, or recent winnings. The challenge is striking a balance between encouraging noobs and not pissing off the existing core and power users. Thoughts?

2. Daily DFS – deGrom and Salazar

Yesterday’s Grind

We have a handful of excellent pitching options today. Winning your DFS contests may depend upon selecting the best combination of cost and production. Danny Salazar and Jacob deGrom aren’t too much cheaper than the top names (namely Clayton Kershaw, David Price, and Madison Bumgarner). However, the slight downgrade in cost is often the difference between rostering Mookie Betts or Nick Markakis.

Of the two, deGrom has the better matchup. The Phillies offense hits for very little power. They do have enough speed to expose some of the defensive shortcomings of the Mets infield. While the matchup is good, he’ll have to be very efficient to last more than seven innings. The Mets are handling their young pitchers with kid gloves. Other veterans like Jordan Zimmermann and Clay Buchholz are allowed to go deeper into the game when they’re sharp.

Salazar has to dodge some thunderstorms this evening, so he might not be a viable choice. He’s posted big strikeout numbers, and he’ll face a middling Rangers offense. Texas has shown some signs of life. They certainly have more quality hitters than the Phillies. Like deGrom, I wouldn’t count on more than six innings from Salazar. He’s been more efficient this season, but I’m not ready to buy into the low walk rate.

Stack Targets: Scott Feldman, Chris Tillman, Jason Vargas, Adam Warren, Jose Urena, Jeff Locke, John Danks, R.A. Dickey, Jorge de la Rosa, Michael Lorenzen, Jerome Williams, Matt Garza, Mike Pelfrey, Odrisamer Despaigne

3. Tomorrow’s Targets – No, Kendrick, Van Slyke, Lagares

Pitchers to Start: Just don’t stream a pitcher tomorrow. That’s really my best advice. If you absolutely must use somebody, Josh Collmenter looks like the guy. At least he’s a solid command and control guy. He won’t offer many strikeouts. He’ll probably get pounded. In fact, he’s an exploit target. Sorry guys, I couldn’t do it.

How do you feel about fly ball pitcher Chris Young at Yankee Stadium? He’s the other name you could use. I’m all for using Young in the right scenario. Yankee Stadium isn’t it.

Also consider: Hiding

Pitchers to Exploit: The Marlins and Brewers still have TBA listed. It’s not like both teams can use him.

Even though there is a dearth of pitchers to start, the list of exploits is small too. Basically, tomorrow is the opposite of today. Kyle Kendrick certainly hasn’t pitched well since joining the Rockies. The game isn’t at Coors, but it is at the next best place for power – Great American Ball Park. Kendrick has looked like his normal mediocre self aside from one issue – home runs. GABP isn’t going to help.

Also consider: Marco Estrada, Sean O’Sullivan, Ryan Vogelsong

Hitters (power): There is a whole stack of cheap, right-handed Dodgers. Scott Van Slyke is the front man. He’s a career .269/.368/.511 against southpaws. He’s solid against righties too.

Also consider: Zack Cozart, Melky Cabrera, Gerardo Parra, A.J. Ellis, Justin Turner, Alex Guerrero

Hitters (speed): Honestly, I thought Juan Lagares would build upon the modest power he displayed last season. Not enough to be a fantasy star, but there was more upside than what he’s shown this year. I’m ready to admit defeat on my Lagares projections. I’d still consider starting him against O’Sullivan if you need a swipe.

Also consider: Adam Eaton, Rajai Davis

4. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

We have a couple potential storms and some low rain risks tonight. Check the weather maps closer to game time.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.