The Daily Grind: deGrom, Norris, Maxwell

Agenda

1. Glaringly Obvious Stacks
2. Daily DFS – deGrom and Norris
3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Wilson, Quintana, Maxwell, Aybar
4. Factor Grid

1. Glaringly Obvious Stacks

Today features one of the most obvious stacks of the season. The Blue Jays and their assortment of right-handed power are opposed by T.J. House. From a matchup perspective, the only down side is the 86 park factor from right-handed power. The risk of rain could make this discussion moot, but let’s pretend that’s not a factor for this exercise.

If you’re playing a GPP, there are two ways to approach such a stack. You could just follow the herd and hope your supporting cast outplays the field. The other attractive stack includes the Tigers at Kauffman Stadium against Danny Duffy. Weather permitting, most DFS players will stack one of those two lineups.

There is a big downside to using a popular stack. If it goes off, there’s still a decent chance you won’t make much money. Then again, there is also a decent chance you’ll make some money. It’s not sexy to win $5 for a $3 Squeeze entry, but at least you’re in the black. Today’s top lineup is liable to include some Blue Jays and/or Tigers.

Targeting a riskier stack increases your odds of losing and winning big. A couple alternatives stand out to me. Stephen Strasburg has been human in the early going. The Mets have several good left-handed hitters. Today, Citi Field is one of the top stadiums for hitters. Minute Maid Park is the best locale for hitters. Both James Paxton and Scott Feldman throw their share of clunkers.

2. Daily DFS – deGrom and Norris

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Two games are early. You’ll have your choice between Garrett Richards, Jesse Chavez, Tim Cooney, and David Buchanan. In my opinion, that comes down to Richards or Cooney.

Late: The remaining six games are late on this Thin Thursday. We already discussed stacking options in Section 1.

I have my eyes on two pitchers today. The pricey option is Jake deGrom versus the Nationals. Given his price tag ($9,400 on FanDuel), it’s understandable if you prefer to wrangle up another $600 to roster Chris Sale. Both pitchers are extremely talented, and neither matchup is a lock for production.

If the weather clears out, Daniel Norris is a sneaky cheap play. The Blue Jays lefty will hold the platoon advantage over Cleveland’s best hitters. The ballpark limits right-handed power. It’s not hard to picture him going six innings with a handful of strikeouts and an easy win.

Stack Targets: T.J. House, Alfredo Simon, Danny Duffy, Scott Feldman, James Paxton, Trevor May

3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Wilson, Quintana, Maxwell, Aybar

Pitchers to Start: C.J. Wilson is not somebody I would usually recommend. His 3.12 ERA is offset by a 4.64 xFIP and career low 5.7 percent swinging strike rate. The result is a pitcher who I don’t trust in the slightest.

On a positive note, Wilson draws the Giants offense at AT&T Park. Thus far, this has been arguably the best combination of lineup and location to target. The Giants have scored five fewer runs than the hapless Brewers. Strangely, they have 64 more plate appearances as a team. That avoidance of out making should eventually result in more runs scored.

Also consider: Tom Koehler, Jerome Williams, Roenis Elias

Pitchers to Exploit: It’s easy to crow when seeing Jose Quintana’s early season tribulations. Clearly, it’s a whole flock of regression has come home to roost. In actuality, his stuff appears to have declined. His fastball is one mph slower, and his 6.8 percent swinging strike rate is a career low.

The Twins have a few hitters who are particularly good against left-handed pitchers. Use them tomorrow.

Also consider: Alex Colome, CC Sabathia, Justin Masterson, Trevor Cahill, Colby Lewis

Hitters (power): Justin Maxwell is doing his best J.D. Martinez impression. Historically, he’s been used as an effective Jonny Gomes-style platoon bat. This year, his three home runs have come against same-handed pitchers. It sounds like he’ll be given an opportunity to carve out a bigger role. All you need to know for tomorrow is that he has the platoon advantage.

Also consider: Trevor Plouffe, Yonder Alonso, David Peralta, Josh Reddick

Hitters (speed): Erick Aybar is off to another slow start. The 31-year-old has a limp .211/.277/.224 line in 84 plate appearances. He has a long track record of acceptable mediocrity. If you need a middle infielder off the scrap heap, he’s a reasonable option. He’ll face Chris Heston.

Strange that I would pick out two hitters at AT&T. It’s mostly because I’ve discussed these other picks recently.

Also consider: Angel Pagan, Ender Inciarte, Jake Marisnick, Paulo Orlando

4. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Watch out for rain in Cleveland.

The Link. There’s only one green park tonight, so be certain to micromanage the individual park factors.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.