The Daily Grind: Crime Wave

Where’s the Crime Dog when you need him?

Adam Wainwright, Pitcher-on-Pitcher Crime.

76mph Curveball/Sword vs. Daniel Mengden.

👮‍♂️🚓🚨 pic.twitter.com/9Td2WHvRGq

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 27, 2019

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Bouncy

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

It’s unusual for two entrants to tie for first. It’s even more unusual to do so with completely different lineups. User mmddyyyy overcome a negative performance from Framber Valdez with the help of a productive Mets stack, Shohei Ohtani, and Jean Segura. Chaz63 relied upon Patrick Corbin, Segura, and George Springer. Congrats and Leaderboard.

I can almost guarantee we’ll have a healthy overlay for tonight’s four-game slate on FantasyDraft. I don’t know why people wander away for small slates. They’re easier.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

The Rays-Twins game could see passing showers. The risk increases later in the game. It’s not part of our evening slate.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Early: Aaron Nola ($20,600) is hosting Zack Wheeler ($19,500) in the pricey game of the slate. I suppose this is meant to be a rubber match? Given that they’re playing at Citizen’s Bank Park, I’m inclined to avoid them both. Then again, upon glancing at the alternatives, they’re definitely the highest ceiling options in this six-game early slate.

Spencer Turnbull ($18,100) costs far too much for a tricky matchup against the Rangers. They eat righties. Ariel Jurado ($12,900) is a more reasonable target opposite the lowly Tigers.

Brad Peacock ($17,800) probably won’t throw enough innings to return value on this price, but he’s definitely one of the more attractive options available. The visiting Pirates feature a rather indifferent offense.

A light breeze is blowing out to left field at Wrigley Field. I would not touch Bryse Wilson ($17,100) or Tyler Chatwood ($9,400) against these two offensive juggernauts.

Jalen Beeks ($14,600) seems like he should be one of the most popular plays despite a tough matchup against the homertastic Twins. That he’s half-hidden adds to the allure. Minnesota starter Martin Perez ($15,400) is slightly overpriced but otherwise viable.

Favorite Plays: Nola, Jurado, Peacock

Stack Targets: Wilson, Chatwood, Joe Musgrove

Late: Our main slate has just four games. Stephen Strasburg is correctly priced in the stratosphere. He’s well worth the $23,000 investment versus the Marlins. Sandy Alcantara ($16,200) is reasonably priced, but there is a lot of pressure to use Nationals hitters tonight. They’re priced very competitively versus a mid-tier pitcher like Alcantara.

It’s tempting to avoid Walker Buehler ($17,100) at Coors Field. However, he’s probably my first choice at the position. He’s very likely to receive plentiful run support, and his stuff is sufficient to survive at altitude. Moreover, his price fully reflects the difficult venue.

Like with Alcantara, Griffin Canning ($16,400) looks like a solid target but for one problem – the Athletics offense is uniformly underpriced. There’s going to be a strong instinct to combine these values with Strasburg. Canning records over a strikeout per inning. He has the shape of a high risk, high reward play.

FDraft isn’t even listing Tyler Beede ($11,800) as part of the slate. And speaking of risk and reward, Beede offers everything from double-digit strikeouts to double-digit runs. There’s a reasonably decent chance he chips in five innings of six strikeouts with a few too many baserunners. He even has a reasonable chance to earn the win bonus.

Favorite Plays: Buehler, Strasburg, Beede

Stack Targets: Peter Lambert, Alex Young, Tanner Anderson, Beede

The Diamondbacks have summoned Young to either start or Open tonight. I can’t tell. He was tagged for a 6.09 ERA at Triple-A so he should hardly be viewed as a potential savior. Then again, the Giants offense might be sub-Triple-A quality.

4. SaberSim Says…

Let’s peek in at our mini-slate. Strasburg, Buehler, Beede, Canning, and Alcantara are the top pitchers. Beede, Buehler, Strasburg, Canning, and Alcantara are also the value plays. That’s easy. As for hitters, visit Coors Field for Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, (Mike Trout), and Justin Turner. Turner, Khris Davis, Muncy, Bellinger, and Solano are the bargains. You probably can’t use Strasburg and the Dodgers stack.

5. Bouncy

We call this overkill.

Two days in a row (different players).

I feel like baseball could be a better sport with more hits off bounced pitches.