The Daily Grind: Correa, Hand, Shoemaker

Agenda

1. Correa
2. Daily DFS – Hand
3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Shoemaker, Jungmann, Aviles, Davis
4. Factor Grid

1. Correa

Well, it’s official – Carlos Correa will be activated in time for tonight’s game. Go ahead and snag the five category threat off your waiver wire. Correa probably won’t be the next Mike Trout (I seem to recall that Dan Farnsworth is not a fan of his swing), but he stands a good chance to be an above average offensive shortstop right out of the gate.

One of Correa’s best strengths in the minors was his control of the strike zone. Even as most of his numbers tumbled at Triple-A, he still managed a 10 percent walk rate and 13 percent strikeout rate. He hit just .266/.336/.447 with the Fresno Grizzlies (PCL). To me, Correa looks like a high floor, low ceiling prospect for the remainder of this season.

Let’s consider the downside. One of Correa’s Triple-A teammates was Jon Singleton. He’s hitting .271/.381/.573 with a neutral .284 BABIP, 15 percent walk rate, and 19 percent strikeout rate in 236 plate appearances. As many recall, Singleton flunked out of the majors last season. Badly. The 23-year-old also had a very similar performance at Triple-A prior to his 2014 promotion. In other words, don’t entirely discount the chance for a flop from Correa.

I’ve been trying to acquire Correa in my home league for over a month now, but I gave up the ghost this past weekend. Last season, the league was up in arms when I traded Gregory Polanco (then a month from promotion) for Fernando Rodney. At the time, Rodney was thought to be on thin ice. He was also viewed as a risk to ERA and WHIP. That seems to establish the value of a top prospect in the minors as somewhere around a flawed closer.

I began by offering D.J. Lemahieu straight up. Thanks to Coors, he’s an undervalued core asset in a league that rosters over 40 middle infielders. I can’t blame my rival for taking a pass on a second baseman projected to offer a .317 wOBA. That’s barely above average for the position. In retrospect, he would have made out well had he taken the trade. Lemahieu is Yahoo’s 35th ranked player over the last month. Of course, that’s hardly a fair way to evaluate a non-trade.

In recent weeks, I upped the offer to a $14-to-keep Danny Salazar. The Indians hurler is earning his fantasy paycheck with 81 strikeouts in 61 innings and six wins in 10 starts. His peripherals say he could offer a better ERA and WHIP going forward. He’s a solid win-now asset with keeper upside. The offer was also declined.

Keeper league owners should try to acquire Correa where possible. However, that doesn’t mean you should pay anything. My team is out of the running, so I was willing to pay two times historic market value to acquire him. If his owner still isn’t biting, move onto other, cheaper prospects. Don’t let the hype gut your roster.

Note: Correa will cost $8/15/22 to keep over the next three seasons in the league I referenced. In addition to the usual bust risks, many successful prospects still fail to keep up with the league’s cost inflation.

2. Daily DFS – Hand

There are only eight games tonight. Included in the action are the three top parks for power. Storms could affect half of the contests – be careful.

Southpaw Brad Hand has pitched poorly in two straight outings. Well, the results say he gave up two runs over 11 innings, but I watched those starts. He had almost no command of his pitches. The only positive to be said is that he was “effectively wild.” For the uninitiated, the phrase is BS-announcer-speak for “he should have been hammered, but he wasn’t.”

Unlike the infamous “shutdown inning,” there actually is something to notion of effective wildness. Many hitters like to get into a cat-and-mouse game with pitchers. It’s easier to anticipate a pitcher who can execute his pitches. It’s hard to get comfortable against a guy who consistently misses his spots by a foot.

In any event, the Blue Jays have a lefty mashing lineup. I expect they’ll be hugely popular this evening. You can take a share of the action AND fade by taking role players like Danny Valencia and Kevin Pillar.

Stack Targets: Marco Estrada, Jason Vargas, David Hale, Rubby de la Rosa, Mike Bolsinger

3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Shoemaker, Jungmann, Aviles, Davis

Pitchers to Start: Matt Shoemaker’s ownership is down to 49 percent. The righty has more or less repeated his 2014 success but for one BIG problem – a 17.8 percent HR/FB ratio. The issue is made even more glaring because he has a 33.7 percent ground ball rate.

The Rays lineup isn’t particularly lethal to right-handed pitchers. The game is at Tropicana Field where “just enough” home runs go to die in the outfield. Shoemaker should offer about a strikeout per inning, a fantasy-average WHIP/ERA, and a decent shot at a win.

Also consider: Miguel Gonzalez, Roenis Elias, Anthony DeSclafani, Nate Karns

Pitchers to Exploit: Brewers semi-prospect Taylor Jungmann will make his major league debut. The scouting reports speak of a low-90’s fastball with a slider and changeup. His minor league numbers hint at a guy with command issues. Expect walks aplenty. The slider is his out pitch. It’s helped him to post a solid strikeout rate since the start of 2014.

Also consider: Mark Buehrle, Jorge de la Rosa, Robbie Ray, Carlos Frias

Hitters (power): The abysmal hitting of Jose Ramirez and Lonnie Chisenhall has pushed Mike Aviles into almost everyday action. He’ll have the platoon advantage tomorrow against Elias. Given his position eligibilities, he’s a solid option tomorrow. Expect a 100 wRC+ against lefties. The promotion of Zach Walters and Giovanny Urshela in the place of Ramirez and Chisenhall leaves some uncertainty.

Also consider: David Peralta, Justin Turner, Alex Guerrero, Chris Heisey, Randal Grichuk, Delmon Young

Hitters (speed): I don’t have much to say about today’s speed guys. You recall Rajai Davis, right? He’s the guy who turns into a star against southpaws. He’ll see Jon Lester. It’s not a candy matchup, but who cares.

Also consider: Ender Inciarte, Billy Burns, Jake Marisnick, Juan Lagares, Odubel Herrera

4. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Four of the eight games could be affected by storms. Perhaps you should dodge those contests.

The Link.

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