The Daily Grind: Contrarian Picks

There’s nothing more obnoxious than picking the best player of the day when the rest of your lineup decides to take a breather. What happened Cubbies?

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AGENDA

1. Fade Fade Fading Away
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. Contrarian Picks
5. SaberSim Says…
6. TDG Invitational Returns!

1. Fade Fade Fading Away

Due to some ongoing confusion, I have replaced the “Fade Fade Fade” title with a more utilitarian name. We’ll still be looking at the same sorts of players there. Next section.

2. Weather Reports

Atlanta has between a 30 and 40 percent risk of storms tonight. Monitor accordingly. Everybody else should stay dry. Or at least merely damp.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

These full 15 game mammoth slates are the toughest to win. Especially with sooooo many bad pitchers going tonight. There are so many quality permutations to use. DFS never feels more like a lottery.

Main Slate: Max Scherzer is an obvious must-play on many levels. The Braves offense is decidedly middling, and Scherzer should receive copious run support opposite Mike Foltynewicz. He’s looked like a stint on the disabled list is in his future. Scherzer’s capable of going deep and posting huge strikeout totals. If there’s an issue, it’s that he may be too obvious.

Curiously, you can get 98 percent of Scherzer for $2,100 less in the form of Yu Darvish. The Rangers ace is visiting Andrew Triggs and the Athletics. Run support is a tad less certain, and Darvish rarely pitches beyond the sixth or seventh inning. Otherwise, he’s every bit as good as the reigning NL Cy Young. He looked sharp in his last time on the bump. His first two starts were hampered by shaky command.

Michael Fulmer is another quality pitcher with run support and strikeouts in his future. He’s visiting pitcher friendly Tropicana Field. Despite Steven Souza’s best efforts, the Rays lead the league in strikeouts.

Digging deeper, Mike Leake is off to a lightning start. I’ve always said he could break out if only he’d throw more sliders. Except, well, he’s not doing anything differently. Sometimes Leake has a good start. Sometimes that happens consecutively. I wouldn’t bet on a full repeat. He’s still a viable volume arm.

Shelby Miller has increased his offspeed usage. Given his sketchy command, it’s resulted in a big leap to his strikeout and walk rates. Miller is visiting the lowly Padres at friendly Petco Park. If he’s ever going to be usable, it’s today.

Kevin Gausman is in Cincinnati for a National League game. The moral of the story today is run support. With Bronson Arroyo gearing up for the Reds, Gausman should be working with a big lead.

Brett Anderson draws the strikeout prone, homer happy Brewers. Who wants to roll the dice on a bargain?

Stack Targets: Arroyo, Brian Johnson, Jarred Cosart, Matt Cain, Zach Eflin, Kyle Freeland, Phil Hughes, Chad Kuhl, Matt Andriese, Yovani Gallardo, Miguel Gonzalez, Mike Foltynewicz, Josh Tomlin, Ricky Nolasco, Zack Wheeler

4. Contrarian Picks

Stars: Buster Posey may return tonight versus Jason Hammel. Perhaps he won’t be noticed.

It’s one of those days when either Carlos Santana or Edwin Encarnacion will be an attractive play. I’ll go with Encarnacion tonight.

I swear people don’t realize that Petco Park is friendly for left-handed power. I’m hyped on Jake Lamb.

I suspect Xander Bogaerts and Corey Seager will both be underowned relative to their talent. Bogaerts has a tough matchup against Marcus Stroman. Seager will face a mediocre rookie lefty.

Bargains: I don’t think anybody will be putting serious money on Miller tonight despite an excessively friendly matchup.

Lucas Duda is well-positioned to feast upon Eflin’s crappy fastball.

If you want a cheaper shortstop option in a good spot, Addison Russell draws Jimmy Nelson. Teammate Kyle Schwarber is projected to perform at near Troutian levels.

5. SaberSim Says…

Scherzer, Darvish, Fulmer, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Miller are the top ranked pitchers tonight. I do like Ryu even though I didn’t mention him. I figure the Rockies matchup will prove challenging. Perhaps he’s a viable contrarian pick. For what it’s worth, I intentionally do this section last.

The top five hitters by total output are Kris Bryant, Mike Trout, Anthony Rizzo, Manny Machado, and Bryce Harper. I don’t quite agree with the implied Cubs stack versus Nelson. There are better, less chalky* plays to be made.

*”Chalk” refers to popular consensus picks for top performances.

6. The Daily Grind Invitational

Congrats to Jimcgowan whose must-play Freddie Freeman was coupled with solid performances from Aaron Judge and Nelson Cruz. They provided the difference between his roster and the five other Freeman owners. The leaderboard is updated.

Finally, we are on DraftKings, aka the format where I sometimes win. As usual, let’s go $2 and 20 users. Here’s the link which will hopefully now work for everyone.