The Daily Grind: Commander Adames

My pun game is on point.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Commander Adames

1. The Daily Grind Invitational

Sawyer77 nabbed victory with the help of Chris Sale, Vince Velasquez, and Alex Bregman. Overall, it was a low scoring affair for a giant 15-game slate. Congrats and Leaderboard.

The powers that be have sent me another no rake, 40 entry contest on FantasyDraft. It’s single entry. We had an overlay yesterday which means we’ll probably have an overlay today. Good news for us.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

We should be fine today. Minnesota has a small chance to be interrupted for storms. That’s only relevant to the tiny early slate.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Early Slate: Five games are early, one of which definitely won’t post lineups before the contest starts. That makes it hard and potentially very valuable to use Padres or Nationals hitters. Will Obi Juan play a third game in a row?

Justin Verlander ($25,100) is the easy top pick versus the visiting Giants. They used Pablo friggin Sandoval as their designated hitter yesterday. Verlander is battling his teammates for a Cy Young award. He’s dominated much tougher opponents than San Francisco.

If you prefer to fit quality hitters into your lineup, there are actually quite a few good, cheap pitchers to use instead of Verlander. For instance, try Kyle Gibson ($15,800) opposite Michael Fulmer ($11,800). Really, either side of the equation is well-priced. I like Gibson’s breaking ball versus the Detroit Mud Hens.

Jakob Junis ($14,800) probably isn’t favored to defeat Michael Wacha ($17,600), but he’s still priced to move. Speaking of aggressive pricing, Zack Godley ($14,900) seems like a must-play – even at Miller Park.

Just to be completist, Tyson Ross ($15,800) has a potentially tricky matchup against the Nationals.

Stack Targets: Brent Suter, Jeff Samardzija, Erick Fedde

Fedde is making his 2018 debut. The righty induces a high ground ball rate, and scouts seem to like his repertoire. He struggled with command last season, and I have no scouting updates since last season. Statistically, he’s improved his strikeout and swinging strike rates all the way up to “not bad.”

Main Slate: A few pitchers were reserved for our 10 game slate tonight. Exactly 20 if you want to get cheeky about it. Jacob deGrom ($25,800) is “yes, yes, a thousand times yes” versus the piteous Marlins. No need for further analysis.

The second priciest pitcher is Kyle Freeland ($19,600) and that DOES NOT pass a smell test. Freeland does have five straight outings of six or more innings. His profile hasn’t changed – he’s still a fastball-cutter guy with a couple show-me offspeed pitches. I don’t have a clean explanation for his apparent breakout – I’d guess an uptick in command. Tonight, I prefer the Kenta Maeda ($18,900) side of the equation.

The maximal volatility game is in Tampa Bay, featuring David Price ($17,300) and Chris Archer ($13,000). If you catch them on the right night, they’ll win a contest for you. Like Price last week. They also flop far too often for pitchers of their pedigree. Like Price on May 3. It requires gumption to use Archer versus the Red Sox offense.

Tyler Skaggs ($18,800) is fine. Really, he’s fine. I want upside for more than fine at this price. He’ll usually supply between 15 and 20 points. Aaron Sanchez ($11,100) is priced to move despite otherwise worrisome signs with his peripherals.

Alex Cobb has pitched better recently, costs nothing ($11,100), and should earn an easy win opposite the strikeout prone White Sox. Beware, the game is at homer friendly Guaranteed Rate Park, and the Sox are not without power.

Stack Targets: Homer Bailey, Dylan Covey, Cobb, Sanchez, Doug Fister, Marco Gonzales, Adam Plutko, Dan Straily, Luiz Gohara

Gohara was a popular sleeper entering the season. Based on how he’s been used as a reliever, I’m guessing he’s on a strict pitch count today. Even if he pitches well, I doubt he’ll finish five innings. I’m still waiting for the other shoe to drop with the Braves bullpen. They’re overdue to either implode or improve their peripherals.

4. SaberSim Says…

I asked The Sim about our night contest. It said Yaqob deGrom, Maeda, Price, Archer, and Cobb are the top five plays. Daniel Gossett, Cobb, and Archer are the bargains. Bats include Corey Dickerson, Joey Votto, Gregory Polanco, Mike Trout, and Aaron Judge. Try Jesse Winker, Dickerson, Francisco Cervelli, and Guillermo Heredia for value.

5. Commander Adames

Guys, Willy Adames is only here for a couple days. They need to get Joey Wendle back in the lineup.

He’s a Mookie Betts clone.

He’s Mookie Betts.