The Daily Grind: Clayton Giancarlo, Hutch, Tucker

Agenda

1. A Farewell to Kershaws
2. Daily DFS – Pineda, CMart, Hutchison
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Graveman, McHugh, Tucker, Burns
5. Factor Grid

1. A Farewell to Kershaws

Yesterday I was forced to make a difficult decision. I cut Clayton Kershaw so I could stream Jesse Chavez today. I’ll give you a moment to recoil in horror.

Are you done, uh, recoiling? I actually traded Kershaw for precisely one Giancarlo Stanton. The painful part of this is that my preseason valuations had Kershaw well ahead of Stanton. Unfortunately, my situation necessitated a swap – one in which I received serious reinforcements in return.

The MLBTR League is a doozy. It has 6×6 scoring with OPS and holds. We use standard deep rosters, but our bench is only three deep with two disabled list spots. I’m uncomfortable cutting Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Holliday, or Jose Fernandez, so I’m working with two bench spots. My solution is to use only one catcher. Mike Zunino was miserable, but Robinson Chirinos adds little to my roster. When Holliday hit the skids, I also reduced to four outfielders. As such, adding Stanton is pure gain.

The standings also necessitated the move. My team is tied for seventh place, but third place is less than 10 points ahead of me. Pitching is a strength; 52 of my 77.5 points come from pitchers and that’s with only two points scored in holds. On the other hand, my offense needs a little bit of everything. Stanton delivers six category production. Honestly, this is the easiet type of trade.

2. Daily DFS – Pineda, CMart, Hutchison

Yesterday’s Grind

It’s a day of aces. Kershaw, Felix Hernandez, David Price, Johnny Cueto, and Madison Bumgarner are all available. Aside from Kershaw, the others are all matched up against each other. Ew.

At least one of those guys is going to post fantastic numbers. Kershaw is the best bet, but he’s ridiculously expensive. If you want to dip into the normally priced pitchers, you have to catch lightning. Luckily, you have choices.

Michael Pineda is the most expensive non-ace. He doesn’t finish games like the five listed above, but he is a heavy favorite for a win against Jose Urena. Just watch out for Stanton and Yelich at Yankee Stadium.

Carlos Martinez isn’t a bad play at Target Field. CMart still has some trouble with left-handed hitters, but there is little reason to fear the Twins lefties. Ubaldo Jimenez has a lovely matchup against the Phillies and Kevin Correia. A win is likely, and a strong outing is possible too.

Andrew Hutchison might be the best of the normal guys. The Mets offense is terribly unimpressive these days. More to the point, the Blue Jays are liable to pile up 10 runs against Jon Niese and friends. They simply destroy left-handed pitchers with a league best 145 wRC+. Kris Bryant has a 143 wRC+. The average Blue Jays hitter (vs. southpaws) is better than Bryant. Hutchison should easily win. You hope he also tosses a complete game, 10 strikeout shutout.

The stacking opportunities are unreal. Good luck.

Stack Targets: Niese, Kyle Kendrick, Brett Oberholtzer, Joe Blanton, Matt Andriese, Urena, Correia, Odrisamer Despaigne, Tom Milone, John Danks, Wandy Rodriguez, Joe Kelly, Jeff Locke

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

You know the drill.

Brandon Barnes vs. Brett Oberholtzer
Salvador Perez vs Mike Fiers
Carlos Santana vs. Tsuyoshi Wada
Avisail Garcia vs. Jeff Locke
Jose Bautista vs. Jon Niese
Josh Reddick vs. Odrisamer Despaigne
Kole Calhoun, Albert Pujols, Mike Trout, and Matt Joyce vs. Chase Anderson
Dexter Fowler vs. Danny Salazar
Christian Yelich vs Michael Pineda

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Graveman, McHugh, Tucker, Burns

Pitchers to Start: Since returning to the majors on May 23, Kendall Graveman has a 2.20 ERA, 3.66 FIP, and 56 percent ground ball rate. Four of his five starts have included nearly a strikeout per inning. The other outing was a six inning, one strikeout game against the Tigers. I’m not remotely confident in Graveman, but desperate owners should consider his start against the Padres.

Also consider: Jaime Garcia

Pitchers to Exploit: Even with his recent struggles, I don’t see Collin McHugh as a guy to exploit very often. However, a start at Coors Field changes my opinion. The fly ball pitcher has allowed a lot of home runs this year including four in his last two games. Coors is not a good place for a McHugh rebound.

Also consider: Bud Norris, Sean O’Sullivan, David Hale, CC Sabathia, Jeremy Guthrie, Ryan Vogelsong, Mike Montgomery, Colby Lewis

Hitters (power): Preston Tucker is a solid upside play with some power and acceptable contact skills. More importantly, he’ll face Hale at Coors Field. Baseball is the only time Coors is a good thing.

Also consider: Matt Duffy, Seth Smith, David DeJesus, Jeff Baker, Trevor Plouffe

Hitters (speed): Billy Burns is fast. The Padres primary catcher is Derek Norris. Recall what happened when Norris last played for the Athletics.

Also consider: Angel Pagan

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Pay careful attention to the Reds game.

The Link. It’s a day for hitters. Only Oakland offers a truly pitcher friendly stadium.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.