The Daily Grind: Buchanan, Rubby, Kang

Agenda

1. DFS Prep Pt 2
2. Daily DFS – Coors, Buchanan
3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Rubby, Greene, Kang, Galvis
4. Factor Grid

1. DFS Prep Pt 2

Yesterday I described how I incorporate weather data into my DFS process. Today, let’s talk about what I look for in pitchers. Keep in mind, I only play GPPs (aka large tournaments). Participants in H2H and 50/50 style formats should focus solely on high floor pitchers – usually a Chris Sale or David Price type.

I don’t always pick a pitcher first, but I do evaluate the hurlers before I do anything else. It’s the most important position to get right if you want to win a GPP. Generally, I target pitchers who could throw seven or more innings. There’s no easier way to accrue points. An easy matchup is also important, but my first priority is innings.

Let’s use today’s early contest as an example (I’m not going to be able participate). Out of 14 starters, I see 10 viable picks. They range from $11,600 Chris Sale to $6,300 Chris Young. When there are so many usable pitchers, I’ll take a look at hitting and stack options before selecting a hurler. Some days, your choices will look like Sale, Matt Harvey, and garbage.

Today, I want to stack Rockies against Matt Wisler then fill in with bargains. My first draft leaves me with the choice of Patrick Corbin, Jorge de la Rosa, Raisel Iglesias, and Young. With the exception of de la Rosa, these guys are extremely unlikely to throw seven innings. If I felt very strongly about the offense, I would be happy to use one of them. However, I’m not confident enough about the eight guys I put together. 

It is possible to build a solid Reds stack against Adam Conley. The game is at Marlins Stadium which makes it an iffy play. They might get stuck facing Carter Capps and A.J. Ramos. It’s definitely a steep downgrade from a Coors Field matchup, but I can fit Keuchel into my roster. I kept $4,400 Charlie Blackmon as a one-off. If I dump him too, I could upgrade to Sale.

Alternatively, I can build a stack against a better pitcher. Alfredo Simon has been lousy lately. A Twins stack seems viable. Target Field isn’t nearly as rough on home runs as Miami. Tossing Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario onto my roster allows me to pick Sale with ease. And I still have Blackmon.

If I wanted to combine say Blackmon, Dozier, and Carlos Gonzalez, then I could downgrade to Jon Lester. I expect that Chicago game to be very low scoring.

2. Daily DFS – Coors, Buchanan

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The contests are split with seven games apiece. The early group has all the elite pitching with Chris Sale, Dallas Keuchel, Matt Harvey, and Jon Lester. Jake Odorizzi and Raisel Iglesias return from the disabled list. Patrick Corbin makes his second start.

The stadiums are overwhelming pitcher friendly. There are two exceptions. One is Wrigley Field which pits Sale against Lester. The other is always popular Coors Field. Jorge de la Rosa has mostly pitched well over the last couple months. He could even be a sneaky start against a mediocre Braves offense. On the other side, I’m aggressively targeting Matt Wisler. I view Wisler as a David Buchanan type with an extra three mph of velocity. He could develop into a good pitcher, but there’s a reason he has a 4.52 xFIP. He seems like the kind of pitcher who melts at Coors.

Late: Speaking of Buchanan, he’s back from the minors in time to face the Giants. The San Francisco lineup is strangely inexpensive. Hunter Pence, Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, Matt Duffy, and Brandon Crawford are all $3,000 or less on FanDuel. Buchanan had a rough start to the season with 4.38 K/9, 5.47 BB/9, and abd 8.76 ERA. He seemingly recovered his command and control in the minors. We’ll see which guy shows up at AT&T Park tonight.

Stack Targets: Alfredo Simon, Wisler, Iglesias, Adam Conley, Ivan Nova, Colby Lewis, Buchanan, Hisashi Iwakuma, Brandon Beachy

3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Rubby, Greene, Kang, Galvis

Pitchers to Start: The Mets offense is far from imposing. For that reason, I’m a fan of Rubby de la Rosa tomorrow. He’s opposed by Jon Niese. A win seems likely. De la Rosa has a 4.89 ERA. However, his 8.18 K/9, 2.28 BB/9, and 12.4 percent whiff rate supports a 3.29 xFIP. The problem is a high 19.1 percent HR/FB ratio. Even if the home run problems are real, I expect him to keep it in the park tomorrow.

Also consider: Chris Heston, Andrew Heaney, Brett Anderson

Pitchers to Exploit: Remember Shane Greene? The guy who was pitching well then gave up a thousand home runs? He’s back for a matchup against the Twins. Greene’s minor league work has verified what some expected all along – he’s a low strikeout pitcher. Actually, his minor league peripherals were worse than Buchanan. I know most of you consider Buchanan to be terrible. What does that make Greene?

Also consider: Jon Niese, Matt Moore, Wade Miley, Felix Doubront, Clay Buchholz, Kyle Lohse, Chad Bettis, Tim Cooney

Hitters (power): Jung-ho Kang is batting cleanup for the Pirates while Starling Marte and Josh Harrison are out. At only 11 percent owned, Kang is an easy pick against lefty Tim Cooney. He’s hit .267/.365/.467 versus southpaws this season.

Also consider: Nick Hundley, Nick Markakis, Khris Davis, Eddie Rosario, Chris Young

Hitters (speed): Freddy Galvis isn’t a big base runner, but he could swipe 10 to 15 a season. The Giants aren’t particularly exploitable on the base paths, but Galvis could reach base a couple times against Heston.

Also consider: Jace Peterson, Angel Pagan, Jake Marisnick

4. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

There are a couple early storm risks, but I don’t anticipate any postponements today. As always, stay on top of it.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.