My week of one-word analysis continues. Hyphenated words count as one.
- Weather Reports
- Pitchers to Use and Abuse
- Hitters to Use
- SaberSim Says…
- TDG Invitational Returns!
2. Weather Reports
Watch out for storms in Cleveland and Detroit. The former is at greater risk than the latter.
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
Early Slate: We’ve got this dinky little three game early slate in which Jose Berrios and Ariel Miranda cost more than Rich Hill. Were I inclined to play, I’d throw my shekels at Hill. He has to eventually pitch past the fifth inning. I’m betting on a regression game from Miranda. His recent hot streak includes over a 5.00 xFIP.
The only knock on Berrios is that his outings tend to be a little short. That’s not even the direct problem, it’s fine to get 40 FD points out of six innings. The real issue is the Twins 30th ranked bullpen. Yep, they’re substantially worse than the Nationals.
Josh Tomlin is a solid contrarian pick. He occasionally goes the distance in truly uninspiring fashion. His most recent complete game totaled just 43 points.
Main Slate: Chris Sale for $11,500 will be awfully hard to ignore. He’s visiting the Phillies in the land of automatic pitcher outs. This is one of those times when the super obvious, super popular play may still be unavoidable.
If you’re going to ask your hitters to bash their way past Sale, I see only two pitchers I’d try. Jordan Montgomery continues to fly under the radar despite making 10 good starts in 11 outings. The Athletics lineup is volatile. They roll over pretty often – perfect for the GPPing individual.
If recent performance is any indication, Robert Gsellman might be back on track. Since returning to the rotation four starts ago, his ground ball and whiff rates more closely mirror his successful 2016 debut. The Nationals make for a challenging opponent.
Even thinking about using Ricky Nolasco may inspire a reflexive need to shower. However, it’s worth noting he’s opposed by a reliever, a terrible offense, and working at a pitcher friendly park.
4. Hitters to Use
It’s a Coors Field day so brush off the usual suspects like Nolan Arenado, Mark Reynolds, and any other righties in the lineup. And then, for good measure, use the lefties too. Moore has allowed a fluky but notable .481 wOBA to lefty swingers.
On the opposite side, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence, and others are opposed by standout rookie Jeff Hoffman. No pitcher is more confusing than Hoffman. He’s completely transformed upon reach the majors.
Alex Avila all day, every day. He’s another swing tinkerer with massively excellent results. I wouldn’t be overeager to own him in traditional fantasy. He has a long history of concussions. Avila is one foul ball away from never catching again.
Second base is pretty shallow today. Jed Lowrie retains a bargain price and steady production.
Jedd Gyorko is usually a multi-homer threat. The same can’t be said of Xander Bogaerts. When the homer race began in April, Bogaerts took off sprinting in the wrong direction. He’s still a savvy play tonight with Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley, and friends.
5. SaberSim Says…
Sale, Verlander, Gio Gonzalez, Wacha, and Nolasco are the top rated pitchers today. I almost put Verlander in the exploit column. The Rays have too many left-handed sluggers, and Verlander has proven too homer prone this season. I have a deep and abiding mistrust of Gonzalez. Any price above $8,000 equals /ignore. Wacha hasn’t pitched well since April.
6. The Daily Grind Invitational
Congrats to Yancy Eaton. He’s the latest user to surpass me in my own damned contest. I’m not bitter, I swear. Yancy played a winning combination of Mookie Betts, Jose Altuve, and guys who didn’t zero out. Leaderboard.
We’re back on FanDuel tonight.
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam