The Daily Grind: Bobbing And Weaving

There are no current baseball players named Bob. Seems wrong.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Robbers

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

It feels good when I strongly recommend a low cost pitcher and he leads the slate. It feels even better when I also use that pitcher. Jaymcstell used Reynaldo Lopez, Robbie Ray, Eduardo Escobar, Khris Davis, and Yoan Moncada to narrowly win yesterday. Congrats and Leaderboard.

This Tuesday night is packed with games. We’re doing our standard $2, no rake Invitational on FantasyDraft.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

Rain could interrupt the action in New York. A serious delay or postponement are unlikely. It doesn’t matter though, the game isn’t part of our slate.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Chris Sale ($21, 300) is looking much Sale-ier these days. His velocity is still well-under recent norms, but it no longer seems to be affecting his outcomes. The Rockies are visiting Boston. They feature a below average offense with a 25 percent strikeout rate. Sea level Kyle Freeland ($12,800) is very cheap. This looks like par value in a tough matchup if you want to fade Sale.

Charlie Morton ($20,200) is correctly the second-most expensive pitcher despite some shinier alternatives. A visit to Miami promises an easy 20 points. The Rays lineup isn’t particularly well-suited to tackling tough left-handed pitchers. Even so, Caleb Smith ($18,600) is probably a good $1,500 overpriced.

Chris Paddack ($19,300) is visiting Clayton Kershaw ($19,800) to discuss the logistics of passing batons from one generation to the next. Kershaw is pitching like a solid core performer who consistently throws six or seven mid-tier innings with (a lot) more upside than downside. The Padres have stripped off their kid gloves (what does handwear have to do pitcher usage anyway?). Paddack is now virtually unconstrained. He’s tackled some difficult opponents although this will be his first time against the Dodgers. Given the depth of the slate, my first instinct is to ignore this game.

Noah Syndergaard ($18,600) has mostly left his owners holding a steaming pile of nothing. Except for that one time. In any case, the Nationals make for a less-than-ideal pairing. On the plus side, he should receive run support against Jeremy Hellickson.

Jack Flaherty ($17,600) is correctly priced. This is the same use case as Smith. You’re chasing potential for a big strikeout rate while remaining aware of the potential for a middling or floptastic performance. The Cards are visiting Mike Foltynewicz and the Braves. Folty will run ya $16,100. With two mph missing on his fastball, I’m not comfortable projecting his strikeout totals. Through three starts, he has a career-high SwStr% and a career-worst 5.40 K/9. I’d throw the dice if he was in the $14,000-range.

Luke Weaver ($16,900) has navigated some tough assignments this season. He remains strangely cheap for an easier matchup against the Pirates. Sure, Pittsburgh is sort of hot lately, but when have I ever cared about hot/cold teams? Nobody has ever shown me evidence that mediocre players who are winning games somehow aren’t still mediocre players. That Pirates lineup is hot mediocrity. Joe Musgrove ($12,800) is a good pitcher in a way not traditionally rewarded by daily fantasy. He’s tossed two consecutive disasterpieces which included unusually poor command. He may be hurt. Despite the risks, I’m tempted to spin up a share at this price.

Danny Duffy ($15,800) is opposed by a strikeout and lefty-prone Rangers offense. We rode a similar matchup to glory last week when Wade Miley faced the Rangers. Speaking of, Miley ($15,000) is a reasonable mid-tier plug and play in Detroit.

Trent Thornton ($14,700) is visiting spacious Oracle Park. The Giants offense was recently portrayed in the indie documentary Crapzilla the Giant Crap Lizard. Thornton has some strikeout ability. Tyler Beede ($11,800) can’t seem to figure out the majors despite solving the PCL. The velocity and the whiffs intrigue me. I wish FDraft overreacted and popped him with a $8,500 price tag. Still, his current cost is attractive.

Favorite Plays: Flaherty, Morton, Weaver, Duffy

Stack Targets: Hellickson, Brett Anderson, Ryan Carpenter, Shelby Miller, Beede

4. SaberSim Says…

Sale, Smith, Morton, Kershaw, and Syndergaard are the top projections. Qualitatively, it’s basically Sale, a vast and unscalable cliff, followed by a four-way tie. Sale is the top value with the same cliff-like features. Next up are Smith, Duffy, Musgrove, and Flaherty. That all adds up.

Alex Bregman, Mookie Betts, George Springer, Christian Yelich, and Mike Trout are the top bats. And they’re all very pricey. Affordable bargains include Travis Shaw, Zack Cozart, Starlin Castro, Tyler White, and Ian Kinsler. Most of those guys have… flaws. Ok fine, all of them have flaws.

5. Robbers

Niko Goodrobbed.

This video is titled “Miggy’s unlucky day.” The alternate title is “See 10-grade speed”

Uh…