The Daily Grind: Bartolo, Matz, Lorenzen

Agenda

1. Rolling the Dice
2. Daily DFS
3. GB / FB Splits
4. SaberSim Hi/Lo
5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Matz, Lorenzen, GrabBag, Blanco
6. Factor Grid

1. Rolling the Dice

This is your periodic reminder to make sure all of your players are starting. Yesterday, I decided to go with Buster Posey even though I wasn’t able to confirm he was starting. He was actually relatively popular (between seven and nine percent owned) so I assume the Giants didn’t post a lineup prior to the first game. I had a game of frisbee throwing at 6:00. That’s my excuse. I decided to count on him starting because he always does.

If I knew Posey wasn’t starting, I would have picked a cheaper catcher, downgraded from Jose Baustista to Gregory Polanco, and picked a better pitcher than Ariel Pena. As it stands, my roster still made me some money with 52.50 FanDuel points. Yet I’m left kicking myself. Polanco outscored Bautista by six points. Posey scored one point off the bench. Pena notched just seven points. With the right catcher and pitcher, I could have made 80x on my investment.

Shucks.

2. Daily DFS – Jaime, Bartolo

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Felix Hernandez, Derek Holland, Tyson Ross, and Jorge de la Rosa are your pitching options in the two game early slate. In these super thin contests, I like to build my GPP rosters against the best pitcher.

Late: Jake Arrieta, David Price, Luis Severino, and Adam Morgan all have one thing in common – they probably won’t pitch tonight. At least that’s what the weather report says right now (7:30 am ET). That potentially eliminates three of the best pitchers and the best stack from a thin six game contest.

Jaime Garcia is my next favorite despite pitching at Great American Ball Park. The Cardinals should coast to an easy victory against John Lamb and the Reds bullpen. Garcia has squatted upon much better opponents than the Reds. Cincinnati keeps getting unforecasted rain. If I didn’t know better (do I know better?), I’d say it was sorcerously conjured.

Bartolo Colon hasn’t allowed a run in his last four appearances. If Colon was somebody like Clayton Kershaw, I’d predict a continuation of the streak against the lowly Braves offense. Colon is the kind of guy who can be hittable against any opponent. He’s evenly matched against Shelby Miller. Yes, they are the same. In different ways.

As we discussed today on the Field of Streams podcast, Alfredo Simon is a viable high risk, high reward play. Over his last six starts, he posted the following FanDuel point values:

16, 1, -1.67, 18, 3, 1.66

Yep, two big numbers and four tiny ones. The Cleveland offense begins and ends with Francisco Lindor and Michael Brantley.

Stack Targets: Lamb, Morgan, Wily Peralta, Simon

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Here we go!

Prince Fielder v Felix Hernandez
Ben Paulsen, Justin Morneau v Tyson Ross
Jedd Gyorko v Jorge de la Rosa
Addison Russell, Austin Jackson, David Ross, Dexter Fowler v Adam Morgan
James McCann, Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez v Danny Salazar

4. SaberSim Hi/Lo

Wrong: SaberSim is relatively convinced that Lamb will regress. He currently has a 6.11 ERA, 3.50 FIP, and 3.37 xFIP along with 10.61 K/9 and 2.25 BB/9. Personally, I foresee a decrease in strikeouts, increase in walk rates, and continued difficulty with BABIP (although not to the tune of a .410 BABIP). He’s picked as the sixth best pitcher today – ahead of Garcia! I don’t buy it. The Cardinals patient lineup should prove incredibly challenging for Lamb. Not do I expect him to throw over six innings.

On the flip side, projecting 40 percent of the win to Lamb and only 32 percent of the win to Garcia is crazy sauce. Garcia’s even projected to throw fewer innings than Lamb.

Right: I like the bullish rating of Anthony Rizzo as the second best hitter. Some DFS players will avoid him because he’s facing a left-handed pitcher. It’s too bad the game probably won’t happen.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Matz, Lorenzen, GrabBag, Blanco

Pitchers to Start: Steven Matz left his last start with a blister. Said blister is now healed. He’s shown good strikeout stuff and decent command. Owners in keeper leagues should already have him rostered. He’s easily the top stream candidate against the Braves.

Also consider: Kyle Hendricks, Charlie Morton, Erik Johnson,

Pitchers to Exploit: Michael Lorenzen features suspect command, mediocre stuff, and the peripherals to prove it. His 5.54 ERA is in line with a 5.60 FIP and 5.06 xFIP. Bad pitchers can be homer prone. The Cardinals should do well at Great American Ball Park.

Also consider: Mike Wright, Ivan Nova, Marco Estrada, Alec Asher, Cody Anderson, Brad Hand, Wade Miley, Matt Wisler, Jered Weaver, Chad Bettis

Hitters (power): Take a moment to look at all the various options available to you tomorrow. Some of those guys can also steal bases. Pick according to your greatest needs.

Also consider: Brandon Moss, Stephen Piscotty, Seth Smith, Yasmany Tomas, Welington Castillo, Jimmy Rollins, Scott Van Slyke, Justin Turner, Aaron Hicks, Eddie Rosario, Michael Conforto, Jayson Werth, Chris Coghlan, Ryan Howard, Steve Pearce

Hitters (speed): Gregor Blanco doesn’t have any cool nicknames like El Oso Blanco. That belongs to Evan Gattis. But Blanco does have a solid matchup against Andrew Cashner.

Also consider: Odubel Herrera

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

We have some serious storm risks tonight. Monitor the situation.

The Link.

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