The Daily Grind: Bad Picks, Flores, House, Davis

Agenda

1. A Disclaimer About Bad Picks
2. Daily DFS – Flores
3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Bradley, House, Fowler, Davis
4. Factor Grid

1. A Disclaimer About Bad Picks

Sometimes, a pick goes sideways. Very sideways. Such was the case yesterday with Kendall Graveman. He allowed seven runs with two home runs in 3.1 innings. If you used him in DFS, you lost. Some of my rosters lost with you.

Graveman is a lesson in the dangers of low upside, unproven pitching. When I was writing the column, only three games appeared to be safe for pitchers. Those games also included Trevor Bauer and Edinson Volquez (both pitchers I used in some lineups). In any event, all of our options had warts.

Later, it became apparent that Matt Harvey day would go forward as scheduled. When the best pitcher suddenly goes from Bauer to Harvey, the game has changed. I worked Harvey into one-third of my lineups.

The lesson is two-fold. Constantly re-evaluate your position based on the latest information. Secondly, don’t blindly trust any source of DFS advice. Toss in your own analysis to supplement the picks of others.

2. Daily DFS – Coors, Flores

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The early contest includes five games. Among those is the Coors Field opener. The match features lefties Travis Wood and Tyler Matzek. All five early games are expected to produce at least eight runs, but Denver takes the cake with an over/under of 10 runs. Go find those righty hitters.

Late: I’ve written about Wilmer Flores half a dozen times, and here I am writing again. After tough matchups against the Nationals rotation, Flores will travel to Atlanta to face Eric Stults. He’ll have the platoon advantage, although he has huge reverse splits in a teeny tiny sample.

Flores’ high contact approach should make him a useful DFS play. He hits down in the lineup, which hurts his value. However, he only costs $2,500 on FanDuel and $3,300 on DraftKings. He’s a lot better than similarly priced middle infielders. More importantly, he may well be better than much more expensive options like Jean Segura.

Watch out for rain. The weather reports were taken 12 hours before game time. A lot can happen in 12 hours when it comes to rain predictions.

Stack Targets: Alfredo Simon, Tommy Milone, Wood, Matzek, Erasmo Ramirez, Stults, Jeff Locke

3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Bradley, House, Fowler, Davis

Pitchers to Start: Archie Bradley’s ownership is already surging out of control. His matchup is not particularly desirable. The Dodgers have a solid offense, but it’s the presence of Clayton Kershaw that makes this an iffy stream start.

I look at Bradley as a guy to grab and evaluate (others I’m doing this with include Nate Eovaldi and Zach McAllister). The hype surrounding Bradley ensures that he’ll be plucked off waivers if he has anything resembling a positive outing. Grab him, stash him, and settle in to watch him pitch tomorrow. He could be worth keeping around.

Also consider: Jarred Cosart, Dillon Gee

Pitchers to Exploit: I like T.J. House. I really do. However, I’m not the least bit confident about him facing the Tigers. House allowed a .357 wOBA to right-handed batters last season. The Detroit lineup happens to include some of the best right-handed hitters in baseball. The stadium will sap power, but it won’t stop a train of doubles.

Also consider: Mike Pelfrey, Roberto Hernandez, Yovani Gallardo, Kyle Kendrick, Jason Hammel

Hitters (power): The waiver wire offers a bounteous feast of hitters tomorrow. Among those worth sampling is Dexter Fowler. He’s 34 percent owned on Yahoo, which is heinously low in my eyes. He’s the Cubs leadoff hitter, and he’ll face an exploitable righty. Kendrick may have stomped all over the Brewers on Opening Day, but this is his first test of the season in Coors. He has a career 5.26 ERA in 37.2 innings at his new home park. Fowler offers both power and speed.

Also consider: Chris Coghlan, Luis Valbuena, Mitch Moreland

Hitters (speed): If you want another power/speed double threat, look no farther than Rajai Davis. As we’ve noted, House has sizable platoon splits. So does Davis. He’s a career .304/.358/.446 hitter against southpaws. He’s likely to bat leadoff which makes him a good bet for multi-category production.

Also consider: Arismendy Alcantara, Eric Young, Craig Gentry, Dalton Pompey

4. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Four rain games to avoid today. It looks like the games in New York and Philadelphia should happen after a rain delay.

The Link. It’s a good day for offensive parks, although weather will probably interfere with three of them.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.