The Daily Grind: Astray

If it’s any consolation, I was among the 67 percent of rosters that included Brendan McKay (-3.10 points). He was my most heartily touted pick yesterday, and I stand by the process that led me to him. Bad things happen to good people.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Gimme MOAR

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

Jaymcstell avoided McKay while also catching saucy performances from Matt Adams, Juan Soto, Treat Urner, and Jorge Polanco. Congrats and Leaderboard.

You know how this works, it’s a full 15-game slate on FantasyDraft.

2. Weather Reports

There are some chances for pop up showers that frankly aren’t worth discussing at 10:00am. Just keep an eye on weather reports.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Yes, obviously use Clayton Kershaw ($22,800) versus the Blue Jays. He’s a consistent source of six to seven good innings.

Shane Bieber ($22,500) is fairly priced for a visit to pitcher friendly ShittyField. I prefer Kershaw’s consistency, but Bieber is more likely to approach a complete game gem. His opponent, Steven Matz ($13,600) has seen a modest uptick in his stuff lately. He’s a solid value play despite a tricksy matchup.

Domingo German ($21,200) can keep pace with any ace when it comes to ceiling. He also turns more than his share of clunkers which makes him an interesting and volatile GPP option. He’s opposed by Homer Bailey ($13,900) who has done his own Jekyll and Hyde impression since joining the A’s. If you’re hunting ceiling, he’s not a bad bargain gamble against the homer happy Yankees.

Speaking of homer happy… nah, just kidding. The Pirates don’t hit home runs – at least not by 2019 standards. Stephen Strasburg ($20,700) at PNC Park is an easy fire and forget option if you need to downgrade Kershaw for a spare $2,100. Although he’s pitched well enough recently, I’ll pass on Chris Archer ($17,900). He’s a good $2,000 overpriced.

I’ll probably also pass on Aaron Nola ($19,700) because who wants to deal with a Red Sox lineup that features upwards of four Top 10 AL MVP candidates.

Conversely, I’m all about Sonny Gray hosting the Padres. They’re a massively righty-prone offense. Unfortunately, they do have more than enough power and fly ball hitters to do a little damage at GABP. This is probably your cheapest option with a better than 10 percent chance at 30 points.

Michael Pineda ($16,900) took half  a year to get rolling. He should enjoy a matchup against the hacktastic White Sox.

Cole Hamels is coming off a pair of negative-point outings. Perhaps he’ll get his act together versus the lowly Giants for a reasonable price of $15,200. The Wrigley wind is blowing in at 13 mph. With some wind-aid, Tyler Beede ($9,900) could easily return value on this price.

Who is playing the Marlins? It’s Dallas Keuchel ($15,100). They spanked him a couple weeks ago, but I still consider this to be a playable pairing.

Who is playing the Tigers? It’s Aaron Sanchez ($13,700). I’m skeptical about the Astros solving anything about Sanchez, although he was showing signs of improvement before the trade. I do think he can probably brush 20 points against this Double-A+ lineup.

Y’all freaking out about Cal Quantrill. He’s a back of the rotation starter who’s had a temporary run of positive results. In terms of output, think Mike Leake. I wouldn’t want a pitcher of this class at GABP.

Brad Keller ($14,900) had a velocity breakout a few weeks ago. A lack of a third pitch limits the upside, although I now see a very bright future as a near-elite closer – assuming the Royals ever find five starters better than him. He’s opposed by Dylan Bundy ($14,900), an amazingly homer prone pitcher. Of course, the Royals don’t have all that much firepower.

Brock Burke ($14,500) is overpriced for a new guy. Especially in this ace-heavy slate. He should cost $10,500.

Yesterday, I noted that Kyle Freeland ($8,100) doesn’t need much help to return value on this price. He’s pitched passably of late.

Favorite Plays: Kershaw, Bieber, Strasburgh, Gray

Stack Targets: Brian Johnson, Sean Reid-Foley, Quantrill, Tommy Milone et al, Wacha, Elieser Hernandez, Jaime Barria

What idiot priced Reid-Foley at $16,000?

4. SaberSim Says…

Kershaw, Bieber, Strasburg, Gray, and Keuchel headline the slate. It’s a close top four with a cliff between fourth and fifth. Freeland, Sanchez, Alex Young, Wacha, and Keuchel are the bargain plays. I only skipped mentioning Wacha because the Cardinals have recently been using him for around three innings. That jibes with my longstanding analysis that he frequently falls apart around the fourth inning.

Mikhail Troutski, Codyius Bellingerius, Rafiki D’evers, Yor’dan Al’vrez, and Maximus Muncini lead the way for the hitters. Values include Trent Grisham, Lewis Brinson, Jon Jay, Tim Lopes, and Isan Diaz.

5.Gimme MOAR

Miguel Sano says “hell no.” Speaking from experience, the Minnesota city squirrels are ballsy fuckers. I had one steal a banana out of a side pouch on my backpack. While I was wearing it. (not really, but it’s a good story, right?)

Don’t be an ass Tapia. Rojas needs MOAR hits.

Nobody wants to be on the losing side of this one.