- July Trade Deadline Value Changes
- Daily DFS – Arrieta, Anderson
- Tomorrow’s Targets – Harrison, Shoemaker, Gennett, Espinosa
- Weather Warnings
1. July Trade Deadline Value Changes
This month, I’ll discuss a few players who could see big value changes at the July or August trade deadlines. Today, let’s look at the Athletics closer situation. The A’s have been…warm…recently, but they’re still 11 games out of first place in the AL West and nine games below .500. They may continue to delay their decision to sell, but it seems increasingly inevitable.
One of the guys likely to go is closer Tyler Clippard. The extreme fly ball righty may have a limited market. He is best suited to large ballparks. His unusual low-BABIP, low-HR/FB approach confounds stats like FIP and xFIP.
Teams probably prefer to use him as a setup man. I consider the Angels, Tigers, Twins, and Nationals as the best fits for his services. In all four cases, he would work the eighth inning. The Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, and Cubs are probably best served by acquiring a bonafide closer. The homer friendly nature of those parks is worrisome for a fly ball guy.
Two relievers could benefit from a Clippard trade. The first is closely watched righty Evan Scribner. He’s bounced on and off the waiver wire in my leagues this season as fantasy owners attempt to find future saves. With 9.43 K/9 and 0.64 BB/9, the makings of a closer seem apparent. Unfortunately, this is his second straight season with a HR/FB ratio above 20 percent (53.2 IP). He may be homer prone.
The dark horse is Drew Pomeranz. As a starter, his shallow repertoire leaves him exposed in the middle innings. Since joining the bullpen, he has a 1.32 ERA (3.01 FIP). A jump in strikeout rate to 9.22 K/9 is encouraging, but obviously we want to see better than 5.93 BB/9. Given his solid walk rate as a starter, we can expect better numbers going forward. He does have big platoon splits. As a reliever, he’s still slaying left-handed hitters, but he hasn’t been bad against righties either.
2. Daily DFS – Arrieta, Anderson
Early: The tiny two game early contest includes Tyler Lyons, Jake Arrieta, Matt Moore, and Chris Young. Lyons and Moore are liable to be hammered. They’re definitely the guys to exploit. Young often pitches well, but he rarely lasts more than five or six innings. As such, I recommend making room for Arrieta. While he’ll be very popular, he’s also the only one with a reasonable chance to eclipse 20 FanDuel points.
Late: Aces. Max Scherzer runs $12,500 on FanDuel. He’s opposed by Johnny Cueto. Corey Kluber is $11,000 (and may be rained out). I like Francisco Liriano’s matchup with the Padres, but he sometimes implodes without warning.
I see two affordable options that are worth a stab. The first is Brett Anderson against the hapless Phillies. Said Phillies are actually accruing a solid collection of offensive players headlined by Cesar Hernandez and Maikel Franco. This is exactly what a rebuilding team should do. Now they just need to move on from Domonic Brown and Ryan Howard. In any event, Anderson doesn’t rack up K’s, but he does keep the ball on the ground.
We talked about Chad Bettis yesterday. He has pitched well in Colorado. It’s reasonable to expect Andrew Heaney to struggle in his first visit to Coors Field. Even if he doesn’t, the Angels offense isn’t terribly intimidating. There’s Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and what? Taylor Featherston?
3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Harrison, Shoemaker, Gennett, Espinosa
Pitchers to Start: Matt Harrison is back from the disabled list tomorrow just in time to be pummeled by Paul Goldschmidt. Honestly, I would not start Harrison against the Diamondbacks. Goldy alone is enough to ruin his triumphant return. If you’re in a sufficiently deep league, it could make sense to pick up Harrison but sit that start. For what it’s worth, I’ve never been on the bandwagon due to a low strikeout rate.
Pitchers to Exploit: I’m a fan of Matt Shoemaker, but he’s had his problems with the long ball this season. Tomorrow’s game is at Coors Field. I expect a couple balls to go flying. Shoemaker’s whiff and strikeout rates are down this season. If you’re a Shoemaker owner, consider streaming in a new option for this week. He’ll probably still be on the wire next week.
Hitters (power): So many freely available power bats to discuss for tomorrow! Scooter Gennett has hit well since returning to the majors. All but one of his 13 extra base hits have occurred since he was recalled. He’s up against Julio Teheran who finally looks like the pitcher I thought he was…pretty bad.
Also consider: Alex Guerrero, Scott Van Slyke, David Freese, Kevin Kiermaier, David DeJesus, Danny Valencia, Melky Cabrera, David Murphy, Justin Bour, Yonder Alonso, Gerardo Parra, Scooter Gennett, Steve Pearce, Nolan Reimold
Hitters (speed): Danny Espinosa offers a little bit of everything including multi-position eligibility. He’s an excellent plug-and-play anytime he’s against an exploitable pitcher. Your league doesn’t have to be very deep to justify rostering him permanently.
4. Weather Warnings
New York, Pittsburgh, Texas, and Colorado all have storm risks. Monitor the situation as they could all be delayed or even postponed. Cleveland has a 99 percent chance for storms during the first two hours of the game. It seems like the most likely game to be postponed.
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