I’m grumpy because the Durham Bulls lost last night (i.e. they were swept), and now I don’t get to go watch playoff baseball tonight. On with the show.
- TDG Invitational
- Weather Reports
- Pitchers to Use and Abuse
- SaberSim Says…
1.The Daily Grind Invitational
It was another one of those low scoring days for us. RaleighFingers fended off the field by finding a couple big bats to pair with Justin Verlander. Namely Kyle Lewis, Ronny Acuna, and Joey Votto. Mr. Fingers overcame Brendan McKay’s decision to produce 0.70 points. Congrats and Leaderboard.
We’re cooking with 13 games on FantasyDraft.
2. Weather Reports
Detroit might have a slightly delayed start time.
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
Max Scherzer ($22,000) is sitting in Ace2 position, but I don’t like the risk associated with 1. facing the Braves and 2. his back injury flaring up. Parsing various conversations involving Scherzer, it sounds like he thinks the issue could flare up again at any moment. Like perhaps he cut some corners in his rehab process in order to help the Nats cling to their postseason hopes. Across the aisle, Mike Soroka ($17,000) seems to be one of those rare guys who is a LOT better in real life than in DFS. His point totals even in strong outings are rather bland.
Clayton Kershaw ($21,300) is visiting Noah Syndergaard ($17,800). It’s all-around high risk, high reward. Kershaw is coming off his two worst starts of the season and will likely have a minuscule ownership rate as a result. Thor always feels like a volatile play against any opponent – almost as if the quality of opponent is irrelevant. He has some recent gems and duds in his game log.
Next up is Charlie Morton ($20,700) visiting Andrew Heaney ($19,800). While I recognize Heaney has some fiery performances since returning from the injured list, I don’t really understand why he would cost more than Syndergaard. The profiles are similar except Heaney is clearly the poor man’s version. Since the Rays are an easier opponent than the Dodgers, a $17,800 price tag would have made sense. Morton on the other hand is a 20-point generating machine.
Luis Castillo ($19,300) is hidden near the bottom of all this acey noise. At least I wish he was hidden. The “cheapest of the best” is often among the highest owned pitchers, and that clearly applies to Castillo. His matchup against the merely adequate Diamondbacks offense offers considerable upside. In fact, he recently slayed them. He should receive exceptional run support too.
Chris Bassitt ($15,900) is just a guy, but he’s price like just a guy. Run support and a win bonus is likely opposite Brock Burke ($10,000). The Rangers southpaw is one of the most stackable targets in the slate, but there are several possible realities where he tames the Oaklandiers with something like six innings and as many strikeouts. As an extreme ground ball pitcher, there’s even potential for one of those .100 BABIP complete game gems. If you run a bunch of lineups, make sure you try some Oakland stacks and also hedge with some Burke plays.
The Brewers offense is deceptively lame. Adam Wainwright ($14,900) looks like a premium mid-tier pick. He’s very likely to supply a 15-point outing. Adrian Houser ($10,900) should have a comparable price tag to Waino. He’s an almost must-play bargain target. Assuming you’re using a bargain pitcher.
Masahiro Tanaka ($14,800) is indigestion. Or angina. Anthony Kay ($13,900) should be avoided despite what may look like a reasonable price tag. The meltdown risk is massive, and the ceiling is not. Massive that is. It’s not massive.
Joey Lucchesi ($14,500) is a stack target because he’s visiting Coors Field. If you’re feeling especially cheeky, I also think this outing could work out for him. The altitude may be rough on his heater and cutter, but his best offering is a changeup. That should be relatively unaffected.
Aaron Civale ($13,700) has a flat out scary matchup against the thumptastic Twins. He’s also better than his price tag. It’s a risk worth taking if you need to save cash and don’t want Houser.
Aaron Brooks is terrible, but I wonder if he might still return decent value against the Tigers Double-A roster. He only costs $8,200.
Favorite Plays: Cole, Castillo, Waino, Houser
Bojeff Hossman gonna get hobbled.
4. SaberSim Says…
Cole, Scherzer, Castillo, Kershaw, and Jake Odorizzi are the top-rated pitchers. Covey, Beede, Brooks, Waino, and Houser are the value plays. Bats include Matt Chapman, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Marcus Semien, and Charlie Blackmon. Bargains include Sheldon Neuse, Josh Rojas, Jake Rogers, Jesus Aguilar, and Nick Martini.
The joy of baseball.
I advised against adding Kyle Lewis. Whoops.
This isn’t Freddy Galvis‘ first 20-homer season and yet I feel like this is the most 2019 performance in baseball.
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