The Daily Grind: All of the Aces

I’m grumpy because the Durham Bulls lost last night (i.e. they were swept), and now I don’t get to go watch playoff baseball tonight. On with the show.

AGENDA

  1. TDG Invitational
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…
  5. Joy

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

It was another one of those low scoring days for us. RaleighFingers fended off the field by finding a couple big bats to pair with Justin Verlander. Namely Kyle Lewis, Ronny Acuna, and Joey Votto. Mr. Fingers overcame Brendan McKay’s decision to produce 0.70 points. Congrats and Leaderboard.

We’re cooking with 13 games on FantasyDraft.

2. Weather Reports

Detroit might have a slightly delayed start time.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Gerrit Cole ($23,900) is quite obviously a saucy target in Kansas City tonight. No further explanation required. FDraft is hiding Danny Duffy from us, but it’s not as if you want to useĀ him.

Max Scherzer ($22,000) is sitting in Ace2 position, but I don’t like the risk associated with 1. facing the Braves and 2. his back injury flaring up. Parsing various conversations involving Scherzer, it sounds like he thinks the issue could flare up again at any moment. Like perhaps he cut some corners in his rehab process in order to help the Nats cling to their postseason hopes. Across the aisle, Mike Soroka ($17,000) seems to be one of those rare guys who is a LOT better in real life than in DFS. His point totals even in strong outings are rather bland.

Clayton Kershaw ($21,300) is visiting Noah Syndergaard ($17,800). It’s all-around high risk, high reward. Kershaw is coming off his two worst starts of the season and will likely have a minuscule ownership rate as a result. Thor always feels like a volatile play against any opponent – almost as if the quality of opponent is irrelevant. He has some recent gems and duds in his game log.

Next up is Charlie Morton ($20,700) visiting Andrew Heaney ($19,800). While I recognize Heaney has some fiery performances since returning from the injured list, I don’t really understand why he would cost more than Syndergaard. The profiles are similar except Heaney is clearly the poor man’s version. Since the Rays are an easier opponent than the Dodgers, a $17,800 price tag would have made sense. Morton on the other hand is a 20-point generating machine.

Luis Castillo ($19,300) is hidden near the bottom of all this acey noise. At least I wish he was hidden. The “cheapest of the best” is often among the highest owned pitchers, and that clearly applies to Castillo. His matchup against the merely adequate Diamondbacks offense offers considerable upside. In fact, he recently slayed them. He should receive exceptional run support too.

Chris Bassitt ($15,900) is just a guy, but he’s price like just a guy. Run support and a win bonus is likely opposite Brock Burke ($10,000). The Rangers southpaw is one of the most stackable targets in the slate, but there are several possible realities where he tames the Oaklandiers with something like six innings and as many strikeouts. As an extreme ground ball pitcher, there’s even potential for one of those .100 BABIP complete game gems. If you run a bunch of lineups, make sure you try some Oakland stacks and also hedge with some Burke plays.

Tyler Beede ($12,700) is hosting Sandy Alcantara ($15,900) in the battle nobody wants to watch. Either side of the equation is viable in a not-so-sexy kind of way.

The Brewers offense is deceptively lame. Adam Wainwright ($14,900) looks like a premium mid-tier pick. He’s very likely to supply a 15-point outing. Adrian Houser ($10,900) should have a comparable price tag to Waino. He’s an almost must-play bargain target. Assuming you’re using a bargain pitcher.

Masahiro Tanaka ($14,800) is indigestion. Or angina. Anthony Kay ($13,900) should be avoided despite what may look like a reasonable price tag. The meltdown risk is massive, and the ceiling is not. Massive that is. It’s not massive.

Joey Lucchesi ($14,500) is a stack target because he’s visiting Coors Field. If you’re feeling especially cheeky, I also think this outing could work out for him. The altitude may be rough on his heater and cutter, but his best offering is a changeup. That should be relatively unaffected.

Aaron Civale ($13,700) has a flat out scary matchup against the thumptastic Twins. He’s also better than his price tag. It’s a risk worth taking if you need to save cash and don’t want Houser.

Aaron Brooks is terrible, but I wonder if he might still return decent value against the Tigers Double-A roster. He only costs $8,200.

Favorite Plays: Cole, Castillo, Waino, Houser

Stack Targets: Duffy, Mike Leake, Burke, Jeff Hossman, Jordan Zimmermann, Dylan Covey

Bojeff Hossman gonna get hobbled.

4. SaberSim Says…

Cole, Scherzer, Castillo, Kershaw, and Jake Odorizzi are the top-rated pitchers. Covey, Beede, Brooks, Waino, and Houser are the value plays. Bats include Matt Chapman, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Marcus Semien, and Charlie Blackmon. Bargains include Sheldon Neuse, Josh Rojas, Jake Rogers, Jesus Aguilar, and Nick Martini.

5.Joy

The joy of baseball.

I advised against adding Kyle Lewis. Whoops.

This isn’t Freddy Galvis‘ first 20-homer season and yet I feel like this is the most 2019 performance in baseball.

We hoped you liked reading The Daily Grind: All of the Aces by Brad Johnson!

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3 Comment authors
Anonstever20Brad Johnson Recent comment authors
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Anon
Member
Anon

Reportedly Ramos will get the start tonight catching Syndergaard so that shouldn’t be awkward or anything.

Brewers starters have gone 5 IP in only 2 of the last 8 games with none coming out to pitch the 6th and this is with all of the starts being decent starts and normal pitch counts around 70ish. Counsell clearly has no intention of letting anyone even start a 3rd time through the order. If you start a Brewer right now you are basically banking on them putting up 10 runs in the 1st 4 innings which might persuade Counsell to let a guy throw 5+ innings.

stever20
Member
Member
stever20

Of course the thing for the Brewers is that it’s working. In this 20 game stretch where starters are going 4.67 innings, they’ve gone 14-6 and given up only 3.55 runs per game as a team.

In September- even with the starters going only 4-5 innings- the starters are averaging 11.21 points per game(not seeing last nights yet for Gio).

The one thing you worry about tonight is that if in 4th inning Brewers pitcher spot comes up and it’s a juicy situation, does Counsell PH there(giving Houser only 3 innings).

Anon
Member
Anon

Yep, Ramos catching Syndergaard tonight. Syndergaard’s splits by catcher:
– Ramos: 92.0 IP, .732 OPS, 5.09 ERA
– Nido (2019): 66.0 IP, .614 OPS, 2.45 ERA
– Nido (career): 141.0 IP, .590 OPS, 2.17 ERA