The Daily Grind: Ace-Off

In which, halfway through the game, the pitchers reveal they’re actually completely different pitchers.

AGENDA

  1. TDG Invitational
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…
  5. Athletics

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

In the hoary past of last Friday, dfreaz5 found a scintillating combo of Max Fried, John Means, J.D. Martinez, and Max Kepler on the way to a victory. Congrats and Leaderboard.

We’re on FantasyDraft for a 12-game evening slate.

2. Weather Reports

n/a

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Prices don’t get much higher than Mike Clevinger’s $24,200. That’s because it’s increasingly challenging to build a viable roster around a pitcher priced above $24,000. This artificial cap can create top-end value when somebody with Clevinger’s ability hosts an exploitable opponent like the White Sox. He has a good chance to scrape 30 points.

Max Scherzer ($23,100) is hosting Jacob deGrom ($21,600). Gimme the deGrom side of this ace-off. The Nationals are handling Scherzer quite carefully, although they’ll have some incentive to set him loose if this turns out to be a pitcher’s duel.

The pricing model has finally figured out that Jack Flaherty ($20,600) is acing our socks off. He’ll host a miserable Giants lineup in what should be an easy romp to the top of the standings. If you don’t have the cash for Clev or don’t want to pick a side in the ace-off, then this is a fine alternative.

Another reasonable Plan B is Zack Greinke ($19,000) in Milwaukee. He gets to bat too! While a touch pricey based on where he usually winds up (around 18 points), Greinke is a great low risk, high reward target.

Jon Lester ($16,200) is a playable mid-tier target. Just watch out for those Seattle speedsters. I’m calling this par value.

Sandy Alcantara’s ($15,100) visit to Mitch Keller ($14,900) and PNC Park promises solid output on both sides. Sadly, this has been fully accounted for in their prices. These costs reflect something like their 60th percentile outcome.

Julio Urias ($12,900) cannot be counted on to throw five innings. In fact, he’s yet to eclipse three frames this entire season. But if he were ever to do so, it’s against the sea level Rockies.

I wish Daniel Norris ($12,800) at Kauffman Stadium and Merrill Kelly ($12,800) vs the Padres were just a hair cheaper. These are nice matchups for a couple flaky pitchers.

A few guys are so cheap they might just be rosterable, namely Rick Porcello (vs MIN), Jaime Barria (at OAK), Dereck Rodriguez (at STL), and Randy Dobnak (at BOS). I don’t want any of them, but there’s no denying the potential for value. My favorite of these scrubby dub dubs is Mike Montgomery ($8,700). Not only is he reliever-priced, he’s also hidden from the slate.

Favorite Plays: Clevinger, Flaherty, Grienke, Montgomery

Stack Targets: Jordan Lyles, Felix Hernandez, Dylan Cease, Rodriguez, Barria, Porcello, Ronald Bolanos, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Dobnak

Bolanos was the 44th ranked prospect in the Padres system per McDongenhagen. They call him a “standard fifth starter/middle relief prospect.” He’s posted reasonably decent numbers in Double-A – nothing to make us think he’ll turn out to be a monster.

4. SaberSim Says…

Clevinger, Scherzer, Flaherty, deGrom, and Greinke are indeed the machine-preferred arms. Monty, Keller, Mike Foltynewicz, Clevinger, and Lester are the best bargains. On the hitting side, Cody Bellinger, Rafael Devers, Yordan Alvarez, Mookie Betts, and J.D. Martinez are the premium bats. That makes Dobnak doubly interesting as a contrarian play. Lewis Brinson, Josh Rojas, Nick Dini, Abraham Toro, and Seth Brown are the cheapos.

5.Athletics

I swear Aristides Aquino was projected for 15 home runs yesterday versus Drew Smyly.

Umpires should maybe be athletes too.

He’s pretty good.





You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

14 Comments
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stever20member
4 years ago

That same Sea Level Rockies team that put up 9 runs vs the Dodgers last night. And not really a fluke- last 7 road games Rockies have scored 35 runs.

stever20member
4 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

it’s not just last 7 games. Last 24 road games(2nd half of season), the Rockies have scored 120 runs- or 5 per game. (compare to 3.91 runs per game 1st half) 91 wRC+ 2nd half away from home vs only 65 1st half away from home.

stever20member
4 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

And looking closer- the Coors effect at least 2nd half of season is just about gone…
1st half- Rockies scored 6.86 runs per game at home, 3.91 runs per game away.
2nd half- Rockies score 5.19 runs per game at home, 5.00 runs per game away.

by wRC+-
1st half- 101 home/65 away
2nd half- 85 home/91 away

oh, the 91 road wRC+ for 2nd half is tied for 19th in MLB. It’s not great, but it’s not the futile offense that you are making it out to be.

Anon
4 years ago
Reply to  stever20

Rockies have always been poor on the road, this is not something new or unknown:

2019 .367 wOBA home (1st in MLB) / .289 wOBA road (29th in MLB)
2018 .362 home (1st) / .289 road (27th)
2017 .363 (1st) / .302 (24th)
2016 .375 (1st) / .301 (24th)
2015 .359 (1st) / .281 (last)
Etc, etc, etc.

Basically, for years the team has hit like a star hitter at home (Hoskins .367, Acuna .367, Olson .367, Harper .364, Suarez .364, TOrres .363) and like a glove first up the middle defender or simply struggling veteran on the road (Leury Garcia .294, LoCain .293, Reddick .292, Starlin Castro .291, Khris Davis .291, Yolmer Sanchez .290, Brandon Crawford .282).

BTW, you arbitrarily chose the last 7 games because they only scored 3 runs the game before that and that doesn’t fit your narrative. I can do the same – they have scored 66 runs in their last 17 games which is 3.88/game which is basically what they did the 1st half. Of course, I arbitrarily chose 17 games because they scored 12 in their 18th prior game.

Counting on the Rockies to have solved what has been an issue with the franchise for 27 years now and be good on the road based on a couple handful of games is poor analysis and strategy.

stever20member
4 years ago
Reply to  Anon

2nd half is though 24 games and very interesting. They’ve hit like a league average team on the road in the 2nd half. Their wOBA is .314 2nd half(compared to .276 1st half).

just looking last 4 years-
2018
.299 85 1st half
.274 68 2nd half

2017
.299 80 1st half
.306 85 2nd half

2016
.298 82 1st half
.305 87 2nd half

2015
.289 80 1st half
.273 69 2nd half

It does seem like there’s something potentially there…. Do I think it’ll continue? I have my doubts,…

stever20member
4 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

at what point does it stop being small sample though? Right now though, don’t think you can just say Rockies away, they’re horrible batting.

stever20member
4 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

I do think part of their numbers is the parks they’ve played at 2nd half. Yankee Stadium for 3, Nats Park for 4, Great American Ballpark for 3, Minute Maid for 2, Chase Field for 3. So a lot of really good hitters parks on the road.

stever20member
4 years ago
Reply to  stever20

regardless of the Rockies- don’t see how Urias is usable at all tonight. He’s not thrown more than 3 innings since April 18. He’s thrown more than 50 pitches only 3 times since that date…. If you got 3 innings from him tonight, you’d be really lucky. Think 2 innings(getting pinch hit bottom of 2nd) is very likely.

mikejuntmember
4 years ago
Reply to  Anon

wOBA isn’t park adjusted, so of course everyone hits like a star at Coors field my dude.