The Daily Grind: A Wicked Wednesday

Today’s edition will be ever-so-slightly truncated. I took a bad hop to the dome last night, and now I’m working on short rest.

AGENDA

1. Flips
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. Contrarian Picks
5. SaberSim Says…
6. TDG Invitational Returns!

1. Flips

I don’t know about this one…

I mean, Hyun-Jin Ryu is no Bartolo Colon. (You know what’s coming)

2. Weather Reports

Chicago has a small risk for storms today, as does Atlanta. Both games in New York could see a spattering of droplets. Neither is at risk of postponement. Based on current reports, the Twins game will 100 percent be cancelled. We should be informed with plenty of time to spare before rosters lock.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Early Slate: Four games are early. Kyle Hendricks is the obvious top pick versus a strikeout prone Brewers offense. The twitter trolls are crowing about regression. I don’t think it counts as regression when a pitcher loses effectiveness because three mph disappeared from his fastball. That’s straight up decline. He’ll get run support even if he isn’t really worth the $10,200.

Gerrit Cole has looked better than his crappy results. The velocity and movement are there, and he’s even using a changeup more frequently. For reasons that escape my understanding, he’s inducing hardly any whiffs. Perhaps the Cardinals will roll over for him. He’s opposed by Michael Wacha – thus far the best pitcher in this slate. Wacha’s a frustrating DFS asset. He’ll cruise for four or five flawless innings before hitting a wall. He should be playing the role of Chris Devenski.

Stack Targets: Jesse Hahn, Tommy Milone, Martin Perez, Edinson Volquez

Main Slate: Eleven games are late including that auto-rainout in Minnesota. Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner headline the slate. They’re plenty good, as are Chris Archer, Rick Porcello, and, surprisingly, Dallas Keuchel. I’m not ready to declare Keuchel back since his success can be wholly attributed to a .113 BABIP and 100 percent strand rate. However, when Keuchel’s sinker-slider combo is working, he’s a low BABIP, high strand guy. Too bad he doesn’t rack up strikeouts.

I wish Vince Velasquez was cheaper because he always comes with top pitcher of the day upside – even when Kershaw’s on the bump. Emphasis on upside. The median projection isn’t anywhere near worth $9,400. You’re paying for the chance to catch lightning in the proverbial barrel.

The Dodgers can’t barely score against crappy Kyle Freeland. Tyler Anderson may post some solid numbers for his price. Alas, he’s opposed by Kershaw.

Jason Vargas and Amir Garrett represent hot hands in the bargain bin. Vargas is doing his usual thing by throwing slow fastballs and slower changeups. I don’t know why he’s recording strikeouts all of a sudden. I’m not buying Garrett either, except as a normal fantasy trade chip.

Stack Targets: Dylan Covey, J.C. Ramirez, Jhoulys Chacin, Ubaldo Jimenez, Adalberto Mejia, Trevor Bauer, Joe Ross

4. Contrarian Picks

Stars: At $4,000, Willson Contreras is priced well above affordable levels. Probably because he’ll have the platoon advantage versus Milone. Overpaying for a good hitter is a nice way to find an under-owned asset.

DraftKings is letting you use Carlos Santana as an outfielder now. Kinda ruins the Edwin Encarnacion or Carlos Santana decision. EE went yard yesterday. Once he gets going, he’s often red hot.

Man do I want Astros tonight. I only hope that an underperforming Jose Altuve is skipped due to his $5,100 price tag.

Jake Lamb’s multi-homer bat may be forgotten at Petco Park.

Corey Seager will be the under-owned star shortstop.

Bargains: I’m still playing Greg Bird as if the first couple weeks of the season didn’t happen. He’s $3,500 versus Covey.

Someday, they’ll figure out Cesar Hernandez is a good hitter. As of yesterday, he was outperforming Yoenis Cespedes.

If Aaron Hicks is in, he’s a possible breakout candidate.

5. SaberSim Says…

Kershaw, Archer, Velasquez, Masahiro Tanaka, and Bumgarner are the top projected names. I don’t have any qualms with those five, although projecting Velasquez over Bumgarner is insanity. The margin between the two of them is only 0.81 points. The top hitters are Manny Machado, Mike Trout, George Springer, Altuve, and Mookie Betts.

6. The Daily Grind Invitational

I’m pretty sure Grbactacular is cheating. He had another win with help from Max Scherzer, Andrew Triggs, and Edwin Encarnacion. He’s placed in six of the 12 contests I’ve run thus far. I cannot confirm (due to laziness) that he’s actually played in all 12. Either way, what a start to the year! The leaderboard is updated.

Today’s contest is on DraftKings. I’m overdue for some good fortune. See if you can beat me.