The Daily Grind: A Minor Thin Thursday

One of these days, I’m going to win my own friggin’ Invitational. Grumble grumble.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Dives

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

Jaymcstell took home the gold with the ultra-popular Blake Snell–Pablo Lopez combo meal. The differentiator was Matt Beaty. Of course, a highly productive Nationals stack did the heaviest lifting. Congrats and Leaderboard.

As far as Thin Thursdays go, this one isn’t too bad. We have a seven-game contest on FantasyDraft. See ya there.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

Pittsburgh is at risk of some interruptions. They’re due for intermittent light rain most of today. Of course, it’s the Red Sox-Yankees contest that is most imperiled. Soaking rains are expected to reach New York sometime around game start. Neither contest is DOOMED.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Rain makes it difficult to seriously consider Chris Sale ($21,100) in New York. J.A. Happ ($14,800) is on the other side of this supersoaker.

Hyun-Jin Ryu ($21,400) is actually the most expensive arm in the slate. He should have few issues with the Mets lineup. The one exception is Pete Alonso. He’s the only potent fly ball hitter with the platoon advantage. Ryu could just strike him out though.

Charlie Morton ($19,600) is hosting Martin Perez ($17,800) in a battle of surprisingly good offenses. Morton holds the advantage in this one as his stuff is sufficient to silence any opponent. Perez probably has the friendlier matchup. The Rays are decidedly mid-tier against left-handed pitching. It neutralizes several of their most productive hitters.

The last time the Royals faced Mike Minor ($19,500), they dinked him out of the game after five innings. I’ve found Minor to be one of the more challenging pitchers to evaluate this season. There’s something real about his breakout, but I also believe a goodly chunk of it is smoke and mirrors. That I’m hesitant to use him against a 90 wRC+ offense like the Royals is a symptom of my personal uncertainty.

To be honest though, I mostly hesitate to use Minor because Carlos Carrasco ($18,600) has such a delicious pairing against the White Sox. The only downside is the venue – Guaranteed Home Run Rate Field. The White Sox are massively strikeout prone and they don’t walk. They also have occasional outbursts in the form of BABIP-fueled hit barrages. While I also have an impression of power, their 62 home runs rank 24th in the league. Carrasco has an easy path to the win bonus too.

The Pirates offense is below average, but that’s because they’re terrible against left-handed pitchers. They’re merely league average against righties. Chase Anderson ($14,000) is a right-hander so perhaps this isn’t an advantageous setting. The venue – PNC Park – certainly is, but we also need Anderson to dodge some potent left-handed bats and rain drops. In Anderson’s favor is a fresh uptick in velocity and an excellent changeup. He has a long history of reverse platoon splits due to the ol’ slowball.

Others to consider include Tyler Skaggs ($15,900) and Joe Musgrove ($12,100). I’m not considering them enough to bother writing about them. Jakob Junis ($11,000) is in pretty rough shape, but he’s priced cheaply enough to use.

Favorite Plays: Ryu, Carrasco, Perez, Anderson

Stack Targets: Jason Vargas, Manny Banuelos, Junis, Musgrove

Fun fact: Banuelos has an over-9.00 ERA since joining the rotation.

4. SaberSim Says…

Sale, Morton, Carrasco, Ryu, and Minor are the top pitchers. Yep. Musgrove, Carrasco, Sale, Morton, and Junis are the best values. I mostly agree. The Sim doesn’t really know about Anderson’s increased velocity or his platoon-neutralizing changeup.

Mike Trout, Joey Gallo, Christian Yelich, Cody Belliner, and Daniel Vogelbach lead the way among the hitters. I think I’ll skip paying the big bucks for Vogey against a fellow southpaw. Travis d’Arnaud, J.D. Davis, Chris Owings, Enrique Hernandez, and Willy Adames rate as the best bargains.

5. Dives

The Mets can never have anything nice. Like an easy 8-3 win over the Dodgers.

First, look at this pitch location. This, in one pitch, is exactly why Trent Thornton is so volatile. Also, wowza!

I want to make a catch like the second one, but I always end up fielding it on the hop.