The Daily Grind: A Dare, Moore, Nola, Harrison

Agenda

1. Darvish vs. Salazar
2. Daily DFS – Moore
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Nola, Harrison, Wilin, DeShields
5. Factor Grid

1. Darvish vs. Salazar

In my home league, I recently traded a $14 to keep Danny Salazar for a $31 Aroldis Chapman. On the surface, you’re probably nodding your head. Salazar is a value at that cost, but it’s a modest one. Maybe $6 tops. Chapman is the best closer in baseball. It’s a solid win-now move. However, my club has zero saves on the season. Chapman alone won’t bump me up the standings. Until a couple weeks ago, I was hopelessly in last place. Now I’ve scrambled up to seventh, but 20 points divide me from the next team. A win is out of the question.

I probably should have just held Salazar. It’s a rebuilding year*, and even my most competitive inner nature is aiming at fifth place. However, I spent most of the season trying to trade Salazar as part of a package for a better keeper. No bites. The owner who swapped me Chapman is the same guy I recruited via this column a couple weeks ago. In other words, I had to bring in new blood just to find a taker.

*I do have keeper depth at starting pitcher – Lance McCullers, Eduardo Rodriguez, Carlos Martinez, Steven Matz, Brian Johnson, and Cody Anderson are all just $8 to keep. Four of those guys look like locks.

That’s all interesting background and whatnot, but today’s topic is an offer I immediately received upon acquiring Chapman – $10 Yu Darvish for Chapman. Here are some salient facts:

1. Darvish used to be a very good pitcher. He is presently a very injured pitcher.
2. Tommy John surgery comes with a non-zero chance of re-injury or skills decline. For fantasy purposes, I usually use a 45 percent bust rate for TJS returnees. I use roughly a 30 percent bust rate for most starting pitchers.
3. Darvish probably won’t return until May at the earliest. The surgery has a 13 to 15 month recovery. The days of 11 month returns are over.
4. My team isn’t a contender. Therefore, it isn’t necessarily relevant that Darvish won’t participate in the final two and a half months of the 2015 season.
5. Darvish costs $4 less than the player I traded for Chapman. But, is he otherwise distinguishable from Salazar?

And now we get to my point. Darvish and Salazar are nearly identical assets. Over 545 innings, Darvish has a 3.27 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 11.22 K/9, 3.60 BB/9, and 10.9 HR/FB. Salazar has a 3.83 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 10.58 K/9, 2.37 BB/9, and 12.1 HR/FB in half the innings (260 to be precise). Both pitchers have a 3.11 xFIP.

You can say Salazar is more homer prone or less polished, but the specter of Tommy John disaster easily mitigates any difference in past performance. Darvish will probably have weaker command in 2016. With that, we’re liable to see a high 3’s ERA in 180 innings. Both pitchers are high risk, huge reward hurlers. If they’re comparable, then why would I trade the healthy one for Chapman only to immediately accept Darvish and $4 measly dollars of profit?

My rival, fantasy writer Jeff Gross, dared me to ask you this – is it wrong to view Salazar and Darvish as comparable assets? Is it even unreasonable to prefer Salazar? The ball is in your court readers. What do you think?

2. Daily DFS – Moore

Early: Oh, this column also covers other stuff. Like the Red Sox and Angels doubleheader. It’s the only early game. I guess I won’t be covering it after all. Moving along…

Late: We have 11 games in the main contest. There is no shortage of stacking opportunities. My eyes keep drifting back to the unpopular Phillies stack. It’s wrong of me, so very wrong. But I can’t help wanting to use Maikel Franco, Cesar Hernandez, and Darin Ruf against the ghost of Matt Moore. The Rays southpaw has a 7.07 ERA, 5.14 K/9, and 4.50 BB/9 through three starts. His trademark velocity has dwindled to 91 mph. On the flip side, you could also try Rays hitters versus David Buchanan.

If you want the layup stack, the right-handed Tigers are opposed by lefty J.A. Happ. I happen to like Happ, but not against los Tigres. Feel free to try right-handed Rangers at Coors Field too. They’re opposed by Chris Rusin.

Stack Targets: Rusin, Buchanan, Moore, Steven Wright, Nick Martinez, Clayton Richard, Michael Lorenzen, Brandon Beachy, Matt Wisler, Happ

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Yes, the GB/FB feature still exists. It’s been absent from the column for too long. First I was traveling, then Jeff Z was traveling, then there was an All Star Break. Now everything is settled. There aren’t many names to target today. Below are the best.

Cesar Hernandez v Matt Moore
Logan Morrison and Robinson Cano v Alfredo Simon
Kevin Kiermaier and Grady Sizemore v David Buchanan
Todd Frazier, Billy Hamilton, and Brandon Phillips v Clayton Richard
Buster Posey v Ian Kennedy

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Nola, Harrison, Wilin, DeShields

Pitchers to Start: By now, I imagine you’ve heard some things about Aaron Nola: Fantasy Savior. The hype is getting a little out of hand considering the promotions of Andrew Heaney, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Lance McCullers were almost universally unheralded. Hell, Joe Ross, Vincent Velasquez, and Brian Johnson are also slated to start tomorrow. All of these young pitchers belong to the same asset class.

Nola brings excellent command with an advanced repertoire. His fastball, change, and curve are all considered to be above average. I expect something around a 3.30 ERA, 7.50 K/9, and 2.20 BB/9. Those are usually league average fantasy numbers. He is the type of guy who could see his strikeout rate increase with the help of Carlos Ruiz and major league game prep. The ceiling looks like a 2.50 ERA, 9.50 K/9, and 1.5 BB/9. Don’t count on seeing it.

Also consider: Joe Ross, Brian Johnson, Nate Karns, Brett Anderson, Jeremy Hellickson, Vincent Velasquez

Pitchers to Exploit: Poor Matt Harrison. He struggled in his 2015 debut, coughing up six runs in four innings. Now he has to solve Coors Field. It’s hardly fair to the once promising lefty. If there’s any consolation, it’s that the Rangers home park is the second worst for pitchers (112 overall park factor). Still, Coors is unlike any other beast (134 overall pf). Harrison is opposed by Kyle Kendrick, aka the worst pitcher to make 18 starts this season. This could (and should) get ugly.

Also consider: Shane Greene, Raisel Iglesias, Matt Garza, Odrisamer Despaigne

Hitters (power): Wilin Rosario usually starts against left-handed pitchers. He’s an easy play against Harrison. Owners in OBP leagues should probably focus on alternatives because Rosario never walks. However, he hits for plenty of power and average. He doesn’t actually have platoon splits even though he’s used that way. The Rangers have one of the worst bullpens. Rosario could pop a home run at any point.

Also consider: Eddie Rosario, Justin Bour, Todd Hundley, David Murphy, Alex Guerrero, Scott Van Slyke, Seth Smith, Logan Morrison, Chris Young, Carlos Beltran

Hitters (speed): It might be time for the Rangers to move on from Leonys Martin. Oh look, that’s exactly what they’re doing. Delino DeShields is absorbing his role thanks to a patient plate approach and plenty of speed. Projection systems are clamoring for regression, but I think DeShields can maintain at least a .340 OBP. That’s good enough to hit atop the Rangers lineup.

Also consider: Angel Pagan, Brandon Barnes

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Yesterday included a couple California rainouts. Rare indeed! Today has a few storm risks. Nothing looks like an automatic postponement.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by Brad Johnson. He is the author.