The Daily Grind: 9-7-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

1. Closerland
2. Daily DFS
3. Monday
4. Table

1. Closerland

One of the beats I cover is closers, although not for this site. Currently, closerland is a bit of a mess. If you haven’t been paying attention, Kevin Quackenbush is recording saves in San Diego while Joaquin Benoit recovers from a sore shoulder. Eric O’Flaherty still has a couple days as the A’s closer with Sean Doolittle close to returning. To top it off, Glen Perkins and Greg Holland are day-to-day. Jared Burton, Casey Fien, and Wade Davis are the short term beneficiaries.

The Red Sox will limit their use of Koji Uehara, which means Edward Mujica is the man. The Astros, Nationals, and Blue Jays all have a struggling closer. Houston hasn’t indicated whether Tony Sipp will take over for Chad Qualls. In Washington, Rafael Soriano will take a few days to work things out, so Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen could see a save or two. Casey Janssen is struggling as the Jays try to slink back into contention, they’ve been going to Aaron Sanchez more and more. I think he’ll officially take over soon, with Brett Cecil sponging the occasional save.

That’s eight clubs with immediate closer turmoil.

2. Daily DFS

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The only thing Scott Carroll does well is ground balls. The way he’s pitching this year, he’s your prototypical 26th man. He actually reminds me of a poor man’s Kyle Kendrick.

At one point, the Braves were the top team against left-handers. They’re fourth best now, which isn’t great for Brad Hand. ERA, projection systems, and ERA estimators all agree that Hand’s expected ERA is in the 4.50 to 4.90 range. Marlins Stadium could help a bit. For instance, it stole a home run from Justin Upton yesterday.

The Angels are the best team against southpaws with a potent 123 wRC+. They’ll face an easy one in Logan Darnell. Target Field is pitcher friendly, but culprits are mostly the right field wall and cold April weather. It’s better than Anaheim for righties.

Travis Wood will have to solve the Pirates lineup. Pittsburgh is short one Josh Harrison, which is a shame for DFSers. I’d still try to get Andrew McCutchen onto my roster, but a traditional stack looks a lot less exciting without Harrison.

Late: Four games start after 4:00. They’re also included in the all-day contest.

Trevor Cahill is paired with the Dodgers. He’s mostly survived his starts, but a high walk makes him a likely candidate to allow a few crooked numbers. He issued six freebies over four innings in his last start.

The Padres don’t offer much to stack, but they’ll face lefty Franklin Morales. His 5.46 ERA is matched with a 5.46 FIP. I know the Rockies have other pitchers to demo in place of Morales. He obviously isn’t a starter in Colorado (or probably anywhere).

As a soft-tossing lefty, Kyle Lobstein has to “prove it.” His minor league numbers were merely decent, which appears to be his major league ceiling (at least for this season). The Giants aren’t an easy matchup for the southpaw.

3. Monday Picks

With 12 games tomorrow, it’s almost a normal day.

Pitchers to Start: Danny Salazar has looked more good than bad in recent outings, including a dominant shutout of Detroit last week. Still, I don’t know how to handicap him. He’ll face the Angels, which might be the only offense I’d take over the Tigers.

If you like uncertainty, double down on Marcus Stroman against the Cubs. You could get a lot of strikeouts, or you might just drown in runs.

Pitchers to Exploit: As we’ve discussed half a hundred times, Kyle Kendrick seems prone to early game meltdowns. The thing is, the Phillies have developed what might soon be known as the best bullpen in baseball. If the Pirates can’t put the game away early, they’ll have an uphill battle.

Jacob Turner had a strong outing against the Brewers last week. I think he could turn in those kinds of performances with some regularity. What I don’t know is if he can do that this year against a team like the Blue Jays.

I’m nothing if not stubborn. Despite an excellent strikeout rate, I’ll continue betting against Dylan Axelrod at Cincinnati. His high fly ball rate and 29 percent HR/FB ratio are red flags at Great American Ball Park. He’ll see the Cardinals.

The A’s have the pleasure of facing Hector Noesi. The game is at hitter friendly U.S. Cellular Field. By the way, is there still such a company as U.S. Cellular?

If only Brad Peacock could walk half as many batters. Then I wouldn’t need to recommend Mariners hitters against him.

Brad Penny. Woof.

Hitters (power): Seth Smith will face Roberto Hernandez.

I guess you try more Dustin Ackley and Kendrys Morales. I feel bad repeatedly recommending Morales, but his position in the lineup should confer some value to him.

Jon Jay is hot if you care about such things. Oscar Taveras is probably an option in non-keeper leagues. They oppose Axelrod.

Adam Lind could enjoy Turner.

Wilson Ramos has the platoon advantage against Mike Minor.

Hitters (speed): Gerardo Parra will likely play against Penny with most of the Brewers outfield banged up. Parra’s best known for making outs on the base paths, but he does attempt steals.

Drew Stubbs won’t have Coors Field on his side, but he will have the platoon advantage.

I want to see Dalton Pompey starting regularly. I worry Anthony Gose and Kevin Pillar will sap playing time. It seems obvious that the Blue Jays have no intention of bringing Colby Rasmus back.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Rangers have a 30 percent chance to see a repeat of last night. The rest of the league is clear.

The Link. My phone is AWOL, which is where I pull the weather data. You can view the air density index at Daily Baseball Data. It appears that Colorado is the only location with an index significantly different than league average (61).

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