The Daily Grind: 9-21-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

1. Counting Stats Vs. Ratios
2. Daily DFS
3. Monday Picks
4. Table

1. Counting Stats Vs. Ratios

I had a leaguemate ask me about counting stats and ratios in reference to something Mike Podhorzer said to him (in the comments). Podhorzer’s point was that counting stats are easier to affect because they usually have a smaller denominator. In the example he gives, one win is worth about one percent of a season total. The six or seven innings you’ll get from a start is worth closer to 0.5 percent of the innings total. In that sense, it’s easier to move wins compared to ERA and WHIP. However, I would add strikeouts to the ratio pile. Ignoring innings exploits, strikeouts are a rate stat (K/IP cap) and they suffer the same constraints as managing earned runs or walks plus hits. Strikeouts are easier to predict though, which makes them slightly easier to manage.

2. Daily DFS

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Like any Sunday, we have an all-day contest and a late afternoon sampler. We’ll cover the first 11 games here since those are the ones that will give us lineups.

The Nationals have been victimized by spacious Marlins Stadium. That could continue today against Nathan Eovaldi. He’s developed a habit of giving up a lot of hits, hence his placement here.

Joe Kelly has a difficult task in making Camden Yards play large. The Orioles aren’t really sending their A-team out there most nights, but they are trying various fun stunts like the suicide squeeze.

John Danks is an easy target, but how do you feel about Nate Karns. He’s done fine in a teeny tiny major league sample, but he was lit up in the minors.

Anthony Swarzak is obviously somebody to exploit. It’s too bad for the Indians and DFS owners that this game is at Target Field. The large right field hampers the value of the best Indians.

Jamie Wright versus Jacob Turner is a classic recipe for runs. We have a former starter turned reliever making a late season spot start in a pennant race against a guy who needs to reinvent his command and control. Wright probably won’t last long and Turner might get an early boot too.

Nick Tepesch is the Ranger of the day.

Late: Four games are “late.”

Wade Miley versus Christian Bergman at Coors Field is the all-too-obvious source for all things offense. You may even want to guess at their lineups for the main contest, although I got burned doing that yesterday.

A.J. Burnett and Scott Kazmir are a little edgy. Burnett has struggled through injuries this season while Kazmir has simply struggled recently. Both teams are inept offensively, although Oakland’s flailing is a somewhat recent disease.

3. Monday Picks

We have 11 games on this, the final Monday of the season.

Pitchers to Start: With so little time left, you may have to settle for flawed assets. Michael Pineda is quite talented for somebody I’m calling “flawed.” The issue is the matchup – he’s at Yankee Stadium against the Orioles.

Speaking of iffy matchups, James Paxton will face the Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre. The Jays rate as mediocre against southpaws, but they sure have a couple real platoon monsters.

If anyone has been slow on the uptake with Derek Holland, snatch him up for a start against the Astros. Holland has looked quite excellent since returning. He’s opposed by changeup artist Nicholas Tropeano. He appears to have the stuff necessary for modest major league success.

Pitchers to Exploit: I’m not counting on Danny Duffy to go deep in this one. I guess the club is trying to get him ready for a postseason role, but he’s already been bumped back once. It wouldn’t surprise me if it happened again.

Chris Bassitt has a difficult matchup with the potent Tigers offense. He’s opposed by left-hander Kyle Lobstein who has an easier matchup but also represents an opportunity for run scoring.

By xFIP, Travis Wood is the same pitcher he’s been the past three seasons. It’s his BABIP and HR/FB ratio that have betrayed him this season – or perhaps it’s more accurate to say they’ve ceased aiding him. This is the Travis Wood we should all expect.

Ricky Nolasco is hittable, but he’ll face the Diamondbacks. This makes for an uninspired exploit, especially when considering Target Field’s influence.

Hitters (power): Drew Stubbs!

The A’s righty stack of Derek Norris, Jonny Gomes, Nate Freiman, and friends is in play against C.J. Wilson.

Kennys Vargas should be owned in my opinion. The boy hits baseballs hard.

Dayan Viciedo is a reasonable play against Lobstein.

Danny Valencia has the platoon advantage against Paxton.

Hitters (speed): Ender Inciarte and David Peralta are some guys who steal bases.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Pittsburgh and Colorado have low risks of a storm.

The Link. I’m time constrained this morning so I skipped the weather ratings.

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