The Daily Grind: 8-20-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

1. Real Breakouts
2. Daily DFS
3. Thin Thursday
4. Table

1. Real Breakouts

At another place I write, I examined six real breakouts over the last two days – three hitters and three pitchers. These guys make for good keeper targets and could even be value picks as you start to daydream about the 2015 draft season.

2. Daily DFS

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Three games are early. Of those, the Nick Martinez versus Nate Eovaldi game in Miami has the worst pitchers. The ballpark and the Rangers inept offense make stacks a little difficult.

R.A. Dickey and Jimmy Nelson can both be expected to have the occasional rough outing. With the game at Miller Park, power is likely to factor into this one. Considering that you’ll be looking or a piece of whatever few home runs are hit early, this seems like the logical place to go.

The other game pits James Paxton against Cole Hamels. That reads like a pitchers duel to me.

Late: We’re left with 12 late games.

Clay Buchholz’s on again, off again relationship with his best stuff is a touch maddening. Whichever Buchholz shows up today will have to contend with one of the best offenses in baseball – the Angels.

Scott Feldman is the latest merely adequate righty to challenge the Yankee Stadium short porch. We’ll see if he can keep the Yankees lefty stack grounded.

Jake Peavy is the stable side of the Giants-Cubs game today. Chicago isn’t very good against right-handed pitching, but they have a few guys who could touch up Peavy. On the other side is Edwin Jackson. He’s been all kinds of hittable this season.

Moving to the south side of Chicago, we have Wei-Yin Chen versus Hector Noesi. Chen will contend with a very homer friendly ballpark. So will Noesi, except he’ll also have to conquer a fairly potent lineup.

Ricky Nolasco looked better in his return from the disabled list, but let’s keep him on here for old times sake. The Indians have a pocketful of lefties to use against him.

And because we can’t have too many options, Eric Stults will face Roberto Hernandez in the evening’s last game. Stultsy has the rougher side of this matchup.

3. Thin Thursday

With only eight games, it’s one of the thinnest Thursdays of the season.

Pitchers to Start: Brandon McCarthy draws the strikeout happy Astros. Their penchant for whiffs could be a boon for the man with a 2.80 xFIP, just watch out for those home runs he keeps allowing.

Phil Hughes is one of the three pitcher breakouts I evaluated (see section one). His FIP is the sixth best in baseball among qualified pitchers, although his ERA is merely decent. He’ll face a tricky Indians lineup tomorrow, but the biggest issue is his opposing pitcher – Corey Kluber.

Matt Shoemaker will face the saggy Red Sox. I’m a big fan of Shoemaker with his solid peripherals and strong supporting cast. I expect him to eventually play his way out of the grind (not this year though).

Pitchers to Exploit: Wade Miley is the closest thing to an exploitable pitcher in what will serve as the early contest. He’ll face a Nationals lineup that doesn’t slouch against left-handed pitching.

David Holmberg is a prospect of some repute, but he failed miserably in his major league debut, and Triple-A has not been overly kind either (4.64 ERA, 5.15 K/9, 3.30 BB/9). The Braves are pretty tough against left-handed pitching.

The Giants have enough right-handed hitters to make Travis Wood uncomfortable. With the game to be played at Wrigley Field, there’s even a decent chance for fireworks.

Hitters (power): Adam Duvall could be worth trying if he starts. We’ll be digging deep today.

Phil Gosselin is taking the starts against southpaws. He’s not much of a power or speed threat. Andrelton Simmons might be a better middle infield play.

Shoemaker isn’t so good that you can’t try a Brock Holt or Daniel Nava on this thin, thin day.

Wilson Ramos is the most available power threat in Washington.

Hitters (speed): Angel Pagan is another Giant to think about tomorrow.

Michael Taylor may start in place of Denard Span or Bryce Harper.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Nationals could see storms late, the Rockies are threatened early, and the Pirates have a 50 to 60 percent chance of rain throughout the entire game.

The Link. Once again, plenty of green, plenty of red, plenty of 10’s. Good luck.

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