NL Starter Tiers — August 2014
With the season winding down, let’s take a look at the National League starting pitcher tiers. September is near, and that brings the promise of prospect call-ups once rosters expand. While one or two September call-ups could make a difference down the stretch, the rookies who may decide your league have likely already been in the majors for a while now. Where do they rank among the top players at the position? Let’s find out.
Before we start, you’ll notice this is the NL post, so you won’t see Chris Sale ranked. Despite this, someone in the comments will say “where’s Chris Sale, you idiot?” Don’t be that person. The tiers should be viewed as tiers, not straight rankings. If I have Madison Bumgarner and Cole Hamels in the same tier, but Hamels is ranked higher in the tier, that doesn’t matter. Being in the same tier means I perceive those players to have similar value.
Tier 1
Clayton Kershaw
Adam Wainwright
That’s it. Tier 1 is just two players. Am I a jerk for not including Johnny Cueto or Stephen Strasburg in this tier? Maybe. At the same time, I don’t think you can argue against the consistency and performance of both Kershaw and Wainwright.
Tier 2
Johnny Cueto
Stephen Strasburg
Cole Hamels
Jordan Zimmermann
Madison Bumgarner
Zack Greinke
Zimmermann is the one player who is not like the others here. His strikeout rate, while good, is not elite. While the other players in this tier may rack up more strikeouts, Zimmermann closes the gap by being extremely stingy with walks. There’s not much else to say about the other players in the tier. If you were bold enough to take an early shot on Hamels, good for you. Shoulder injuries are always worrisome, and he came with a ton of risk entering this season.
Tier 3
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Lance Lynn
Ian Kennedy
Julio Teheran
Tyson Ross
Ervin Santana
Alex Wood
Jake Arrieta
Gerrit Cole
John Lackey
Michael Wacha
This tier actually starts to get rough. Ryu and Teheran do a great job limiting walks, but the other three players in the tier have a tough time keeping men of base via the free pass. Despite Kennedy’s increased strikeout rate this season, Lynn is probably the best of the “high-walk” bunch here. Ross is obviously a good pitcher, but there are games where he can’t hit the strike zone to save his life. I’m just as shocked as you are to see Arrieta this high, but he’s been awesome.
Tier 4
Tanner Roark
Jimmy Nelson
Doug Fister
Mat Latos
Nathan Eovaldi
Zack Wheeler
Bartolo Colon
Matt Garza
Yovani Gallardo
Mike Leake
Kyle Lohse
Ryan Vogelsong
Homer Bailey
Francisco Liriano
Wily Peralta
Andrew Cashner
Mike Fiers
Mike Minor
Gio Gonzalez
Jesse Hahn
Jake Peavy
We’ve hit a point where you already see serious deficiencies in some of these players. At this point, one skill is enough to make these guys viable. For Roark, Eovaldi, Colon, Leake, Lohse and Gallardo, the ability to limit walks outweighs their lower-than-average strikeout rates. They are still capable of posting high-strikeout games, but it’s not something you can count on. Wheeler has issues with his control, but his strikeout potential puts him in this range. Bailey is trying to get back after an awful start to his season, but his recent injury should cause him to miss a few more starts. Both Bailey and Vogelsong have similar, and good, numbers, but it’s hard to have faith in either when throwing them out there. Jimmy Nelson could make the leap forward, but sample size is an issue at the moment.
Tier 5
Henderson Alvarez
Tsuyoshi Wada
Trevor Cahill
Alfredo Simon
Tim Lincecum
Jorge De La Rosa
Jon Niese
Wade Miley
Aaron Harang
Tim Hudson
Tom Koehler
Chase Anderson
Kyle Hendricks
Charlie Morton
Chase Anderson
Vidal Nuno
Justin Masterson
A fair amount of these players just won’t give you strikeouts. While Miley has actually upped his k-rate, he’s giving up way too many homers. Morton and Koehler are solid, but give up more walks than you would like. I’m just going to throw my hands up in the air with Lincecum. I have no idea what the expect from him moving forward. FIP thinks there’s room for improvement, but color me skeptical. Trevor Cahill may deserve to be higher based on his stats, but I’ve been bitten by him too many times. The performance has been great for Hendricks, but it’s likely a mirage. Enjoy while you can. Wada might deserve to be higher, but it would be nice to see a larger sample before we overreact. The same can be said for Chase Anderson and Vidal Nuno.
Tier 6
Travis Wood
A.J. Burnett
Edinson Volquez
Walks are bad. They’ve really hurt both Wood and Burnett this season. Volquez has been good, it’s exactly dependable.
Tier 7
Dan Haren
Shelby Miller
Edwin Jackson
Eric Stults
Danger. Danger. Abort.
There’s a good chance I forgot a few players. Let me know who I missed and I’ll add them.
Chris is a blogger for CBSSports.com. He has also contributed to Sports on Earth, the 2013 Hard Ball Times Baseball Annual, ESPN, FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. He tries to be funny on twitter @Chris_Cwik.
Cole and Cashner
Chris, I know Lackey has only had a few NL starts, but which tier would you place him in?
Masterson as well.
and Peavy
Mike Minor and Gerrit Cole are missing
Gio Gonzalez
And the mortal Jesse Hahn?
I wouldn’t mind seeing where a healthy Wacha belongs. Also, I’ve been hearing rumors he pitches from the ‘pen after he rehabs. Thoughts?
Jesse Hahn is not included. I believe he’s been shut down for the season, which may be why he was left off. I am interested in hearing what to expect from him next year. I have him in a keeper league, but not sure if I want to waste a roster spot to end this season on someone who is not going to be playing.
Seems to me there’s a bigger gap between Kershaw and Wainwright than there is between Wainwright and Cueto or Strasburg. Kershaw should probably be in a tier of his own, with Wainwright sitting atop tier two.
Not sure how Fister ranks as a Tier 3 pitcher. I think he is near the top of Tier 2 if not a low end Tier 1. Since June 1st Fister is 10-3 with a 1.82 ERA
You can’t just take a hot streak to push a guy into the Kershaw stratosphere.
Fister is in tier 4, which I agree is way too low. He’s not 2 yet, but I don’t see how he’s not tier 3.
Fister should be tier 3. His strike-outs are not elite, but his peripherals make for a great ERA/WHIP guy that puts himself into position for a lot of Wins.
deGrom? He should be back soon and I would think he would be at the top of tier 5.
As a Cardinals fan who gets to watch Wainwright all the time, I hate to admit that you really should move Waino down. He was magnificent early this year, but has not been since he was DL’d. Still good, but he’s taken a couple steps back.
I don’t think he has been DL’ed this year, but he’s struggled since the all-star break.
No DL, but he did miss a start.
Where would Fiers rank? With Lohse and Garza dealing with minor injuries, he might stick in the rotation. And there’s a chance Nelson would be the odd man out for the stretch run if and when all are healthy.
I too am interested in seeing which tier Fiers falls into. His performance over a small sample size has been elite, and he posted some good results in 2012 as well before floundering last year. Might he have found his lost stuff?
Surprised you left out Jacob DeGrom. He’s scheduled to pitch this weekend and won’t have an innings limit on him for the rest of the year. He at least belongs in the Tier 4 range, although I’d argue he should be in Tier 3.
Locke?
“Ryu and Teheran do a great job limiting walks, but the other three players in the tier have a tough time keeping men of base via the free pass.”
By three do you mean six?
You were a little, uh, too Cwik to post this. Next time be more thorough.
Agreed. I appreciate the rankings and the responses to comments, but when you missed 12 (!) guys on the first pass, you may have been too hasty to post.
Wainwright has been a mediocre pitcher since the break. Give me most of Tier 2 over him.
You appear sound asleep on Kyle Hendricks. A mirage? OK so dominating the Dodgers, Rockies@coors, and the Brewers in 3 of his first 7 starts is a small sample. But when you combine that with what Hendricks did over 140 innings pitching in the PCL (and at Iowa no less), it looks like a really special pitcher to me, not a mirage. His PCL peripherals are outstanding across the board.
Is he a mirage because he doesn’t throw 97?
His LOB is very high and BABIP is very low.
See —-> Barry Enright, 2010.
His PCL numbers don’t show what you’re indicating. With a more normalized BABIP there he still put up excellent WHIP, FIP, BB/9, BB/K, HR/9 ratios. Actually the ratios hold all the way thru his minor league career outside of his first 5 starts with the Cubs org in High-A(right after being traded).
I’m sure he’s going to regress a bit especially with the Cubs spotty infield defense. But he doesn’t look like a mirage (as in “flash in the pan”) to me based on his career numbers or using the eyeball test on 3 of his starts. He’s a really good command/control pitcher. Definitely in line with a number of Tier 4 guys like Roark, Lohse, Peralta, etc.
Kershaw and Wainright in the same tier?
Kershaw better in ERA, WHIP, K/9, IP.
Kershaw has been elite for several years.
A Wainright career year is Kershaw every year.
Where’s Chris Sale? Idiot.
What about Kyle Kendrick?!?!
No love for the Pirates? Locke and Morton missing,
Vance Worley as well.