The Daily Grind: 7-9-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

  1. Some More Closer Notes
  2. Daily DFS
  3. Thin Thursday
  4. Table

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1. More Closer Notes

Yesterday we talked about Brad Boxberger and the Rays bullpen. A few other ‘pens are unsettled with the opportunity for a good reliever to step in. The Padres may trade Huston Street, which would finally open the door for Joaquin Benoit. They may also trade Benoit, which would put Alex Torres or Dale Thayer in the top seat.

Hector Rondon has struggled a bit in recent outings. Although Rondon is a fine closer, Neil Ramirez always looked like a slightly better pitcher. Now may be a good time to stash him.

There’s been talk of getting Trevor Rosenthal some rest, which could open a few save opportunities for Pat Neshek. Do I trust Neshek? Not much. But he’s better than trying to make something of Jake Petricka or Zach Putnam.

The Phillies could trade Jonathan Papelbon, which would open the door for Ken Giles. Smart clubs have gone out of their way to keep their best relief prospects from accruing saves. The Phillies have a different reputation.

2. Daily DFS

Early: Four games are early.

Everybody is going to be taking one side or the other of the Eric Stults versus Jair Jurrjens games. And you know what? They’re right to do so.

C.J. Wilson is a good pitcher, but the Blue Jays are always capable of launching any number of home runs.

Josh Collmenter is an acceptable back-of-the-rotation pitcher, but he can have the occasional rough outing. Look at the Marlins as an alternative to DenverDay.

Late: That leaves 11 games for the late contest.

I’ve been waiting all season for Brandon McCarthy’s home run problem to regress. Moving to the AL and Yankee Stadium certainly isn’t going to help. Even today’s start at Progressive Field isn’t a boon.

What I know about Dallas Beeler tells me to expect a high-4’s ERA. Since the game is at Cincinnati, you might want to grab a couple Reds.

Roberto Hernandez will probably do his usual thing, but there’s always the chance for a three home run game. The Brewers offense certainly has enough offense to supply the fireworks.

3. Thin Thursday

With 12 games, Thursday is on a diet, but it’s not exactly thin.

Pitchers to Start: I had trouble deciding where to put Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks. Since he’ll face the Reds, let’s call it a very hesitant start. He’s a big right hander with strong command and control of a four pitch repertoire. The downside is his upper-80’s fastball velocity. This particular pitcher profile can have trouble breaking into the majors – probably because hitters know they’re going to be pitched around the strike zone.

Pitchers to Exploit: David Buchanan will face a high octane Brewers offense in Milwaukee. Recall, I consider Buchanan a decent swing starter, but he doesn’t possess much upside.

We discussed Wei-Yin Chen yesterday, but he’s been bumped to Thursday.

Neither David Phelps nor T.J. House is particularly likely to meltdown tomorrow. They each allow their share of runs, which is sometimes leverageable.

Shelby Miller’s command and control seems to be gone. He’s allowed 16 walks in his last five starts, although five of those came in a disasterpiece at Coors Field. The top of the Pirates offense is dynamic but also very much owned.

A game between Hector Santiago and Colby Lewis looks like a good bet for 10 or more runs.

While the Mariners do not feature a powerful offense, fly ball pitcher Yohan Pino is still a reasonable target. The Mariners are throwing TBA.

Odrisamer Despaigne has survived three outings with an excellent 0.92 ERA. So why is he in the “to exploit” section? A seven percent strikeout rate usually isn’t survivable, especially when combined with an 11 percent walk rate. His BABIP against is just .169 and he’s stranded 96.6 percent of baserunners. Lastly, his xFIP is nearly 5.00. The Dodgers throw Clayton Kershaw, so don’t try to get cute with a spot start.

Hitters (power): Wilson Ramos is worth another look since Chen was bumped.

Andre Ethier should start against Despaigne.

Lonnie Chisenhall and David Murphy have the platoon advantage against Phelps.

Johnny Gomes will start against Jose Quintana.

Hitters (speed): Michael Saunder and James Jones, come on down. You’re the next contestants on the Price is Right.

Dan Robertson isn’t a stud, but he sometimes leads off against lefties.

Kole Calhoun is still out there in 36 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Scooter Gennett is available in 66 percent of leagues, and he should lead off against Buchanan.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Eight games have between a 10 an 20 percent chance of rain. Usually that works out to nothing. As usual, verify your players won’t be affected.

The Link. A 10 weather rating in Colorado is always something to see. And exploit.

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Will
Guest
Will

Happy to own Neshek, Benoit and Ramirez in your home league…

Oh, and Ramos’ power has been sapped since coming back (not SLG, but his home run ability seems severely limited since his return, just FYI.