The Daily Grind: 7-7-14 – Presented by FanDuel


  1. Hello Again
  2. Daily DFS
  3. Tuesday Picks
  4. Table

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1. Hello Again

Apologies for yesterday’s unannounced off day. I was training into New York during the time I usually allot for this column. I had meatballs at The Meatball Shop, cupcakes at Magnolia, an elk burger at Bare Burger, and took in two musicals – The Book of Mormon and Hedwig and the Angry Inch. Now I need to go on a rice and beans diet for a month while my bank account recovers.

But enough about me. Presumably some of you have visited New York, let’s talk about it. Oh, you probably came here for picks, huh?

2. Daily DFS

Early: Crickets.

Late: We have 14 late games today, which makes for a busy evening.

Yankees spot starter Shane Greene looks exploitable. His strikeout and walks rates were passable in the minors, but it’s hard not to notice a string of high BABIPs. Those can be a symptom of underwhelming stuff – the kind that prevents a pitcher from translating good minor league peripherals to the majors.

Scott Carroll has one of the worst K-BB%’s in the league at 1.9. Of all pitchers with at least 50 innings, only Nick Martinez, Paul Maholm, and David Hale have performed worse in this particular statistic. All of which is to say that the Red Sox should beat up on Carroll.

Daisuke Matsuzaka has give up five runs in each of his last two outings. I assume the billion walks have something to do with it. He’s not quite into Marmolian territory, but nearly 6 BB/9 is a LOT.

Miles Mikolas didn’t exactly thrive in his first outing, and projection systems don’t think he will in future performances. He’s pegged for about a 5.00 ERA. He’s probably better suited for the bullpen. In any event, the Astros may feast.

Marco Estrada keeps allowing home runs, and that’s good for fantasy owners. Today’s game is at homer friendly Miller Park. Phillies hitters should be cheap – and with good reason – so you may want to patch in a guy or two.

I want to stack against Tyler Matzek, but do the Padres have any right-handed hitters worth targeting at Coors Field? Sure, yea, they do, but they don’t feel like good bets to return top value.

J.A. Happ has the always difficult task of putting the Angels offense in their place.

The Mariners could make for a stealthy stack against hit-maven Kevin Correia.

3. Tuesday Picks

The Cubs and Reds have a doubleheader. Oh joy.

Pitchers to Start: Trevor Bauer is a fringy pick for a start. He strikes out enough batters to provide the full fantasy package (um…). The worst part of his matchup is the opposing pitcher – Masahiro Tanaka. The second worst part is the park factors for home runs to right field at Progressive Field. Aside from Brian McCann and Mark Teixeira, the Yankees don’t have much left-handed pop, but they do have a bunch of low octane lefties who can chip in on occasion.

Tsuyoshi Wada will make his major league debut. He’s actually pitched really well for the Cubs in Triple-A, and it’s a bit surprising they haven’t tried to squeeze value out of him sooner. This recommendation is due to his 9.30 K/9 and 2.30 BB/9. I assume there is an issue with his stuff, such that those rates will be substantially worse in the majors. This is a high risk, high reward play. He’s opposed by undefeated pitcher TBA.

Pitchers to Exploit: Jeremy Hellickson makes his first start of the season tomorrow. I like to jump on guys coming off the disabled list. Hellickson appears to have pitched fine during his rehab stint, so long as you’re willing to overlook a 7.23 ERA driven by a crazy .493 BABIP. He’ll face the Royals, so if the BABIP issue contains some signal, he could be in trouble. They love balls in play.

Nick Martinez will face the Astros. I mentioned him earlier as somebody who does bad things with K-BB%. And look at that, the player linker tagged him correctly.

Like with Matzek today, I really want to exploit Franklin Morales, but the Padres offense leaves one underwhelmed. Still, this is a much safer target for traditional fantasy players. If the Pads shoot a blank, what are you out? Four plate appearances?

Brad Hand versus newly acquired Vidal Nuno sounds like a high scoring affair. Over-under at 10.5 runs?

Hitters (power): Nolan Reimold will probably start against lefty Tyler Skaggs. In case you missed it, Reimold is a Blue Jay now, and they intend to use him. He could be the new Juan Francisco since the old Juan Francisco curled up and disappeared.

Traditionally, Cody Ross has handled left-handers like Hand quite well. This season, I’ve had trouble remembering Ross is a major leaguer.

Chase Headley and Carlos Quentin have fallen off the map. A game at Coors Field could be worth pulling them off the wire.

Hitters (speed): It’s too easy to list James Jones here.

Chris Denorfia could/should leadoff against Morales.

How about Mookie Betts against John Danks. “How about it,” you respond.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Cincinnati game comes with a 60 percent chance of rain.

The Link. If the atmospheric conditions have any say, we’re going to see a lot of home runs tonight.

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of FanDuel. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.

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Any chance Heisey or Ludwick start both games in LF for Cincy? Trying to find a sneaky start, as the Cubs are going to be throwing two LHPs. Reds haven’t faced many LHPs recently, so just wondering if there’s some hidden value. Any other ideas?