The Daily Grind: 5-11-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

1. It’s Mother’s Day
2. DFS Picks
3. Monday Mincemeat
4. Table

1. Happy Mother’s Day

Happy Day to the estimated 1.5 moms who read this column. I’ve been enlisted to make some pancakes, so I need to rifle through this section. Tune in tomorrow when we talk about baseball.

2. DFS for Today

It’s Sunday, so there’s no split in game times.

The Twins against rookie Robbie Ray seems like as good a place to start as any. Detroit has a neutral park, but the Twins right-handed lineup could still take advantage.

The Rockies squad of mashers will pair up with Homer Bailey. As I discussed yesterday, the chief culprits behind his 5.36 ERA are his BABIP and HR/FB ratio. Expect some positive regression, although maybe not against the Rockies.

Look to pile up the Diamondbacks hitters against Hector Noesi. U.S. Cellular Field is always a wise target.

I’m pretty sure Matt Garza is perfectly fine and will pitch like he’s Matt Garza. But the Yankees have a few left-handed hitters worthy of a look in Milwaukee.

Stick with the Red Sox righties against Robbie Ross.

3. Tomorrow’s Jam

We have 10 games to choose from tomorrow, all of them at night.

Pitchers to Start: Chris Davis is on the mends and will probably be back in the lineup by tomorrow (if not today), but I’m not too worried about Rick Porcello against the Orioles lineup all the same.

Cesar Ramos hasn’t exactly impressed me, but he’s facing a lefty-leaning Mariners lineup tomorrow. The downside: he’s opposed by Felix Hernandez.

A blow up outing last time around could mean Jesse Chavez is available.

You could take a stab at Gavin Floyd. I didn’t watch his first outing nor do I have any special insight from one game of data.

Pitchers to Exploit: Bartolo Colon will be fine, but he’ll have to contend with the Yankees’ short left-field porch tomorrow. As a fly ball pitcher, there’s a risk he allows three or more home runs.

A game of Colby Lewis versus Brad Peacock promises run scoring potential.

Tim Lincecum seems to have a home run problem. Maybe he does and maybe he doesn’t. The Braves definitely have an affinity for home runs. So if you believe in Lincecum’s problem, then you want to target Braves – even in San Francisco.

Hitters (power): Luis Valbuena tends to bat up in the lineup against lefties like Tyler Lyons.

If available, Corey Hart has a solid matchup against Ramos.

Derek Norris will have the platoon advantage against John Danks.

C.J. Cron is a gem against Mark Buehrle.

I’d look to use Kelly Johnson and Yangervis Solarte in the New York game.

Hitters (speed): Stefen Romero seems to be batting second against lefties.

Leonys Martin is worth a try, although it doesn’t seem like he’ll bat second against righties after a one game experiment.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The White Sox could see some scattered storms, and Pittsburgh also has a low percentage chance of some showers. Overall, the risk is low.

The Link. Table comments

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