- What not to do
- DFS picks
- Friday picks
1. What not to do
Yesterday I was beaten in a tournament by a guy who played Cliff Lee, Chris Johnson, Evan Gattis, and B.J. Upton. In case you didn’t know, the Phillies were playing the Braves, so this foolish owner stacked against himself. He got very lucky in that Lee threw a 13 strikeout complete game, and Gattis hit a bomb. The reason you don’t ever want to do this – especially in a tournament – is because it destroys the number of ways you can win. A tournament is all about maximizing points. That’s why we stack lineups. Using a stack against your pitcher is like taking points away from yourself.
Also I’m pretty sure Upton is the worst pick you can take. I’m only half snarking.
2. DFS Picks
Early: There are five early games today. In the Factor Grid (section 4), four of them are labelled red and one is labelled green. Everybody in the world is going to be in on Erasmo Ramirez versus Tanner Scheppers, and you should be too. The alternatives just aren’t stackable.
Late: Franklin Morales versus Ian Kennedy offers an enticing opportunity for lefty hitters. Of course, Morales himself is a lefty, which could counteract the good weather and park factors. Then again, he’s pitched poorly out of the rotation.
I don’t dislike Taylor Jordan. I expect to recommend using him several times this season. I do think a matchup against Adam Wainwright is the kiss of death. Of course, ask Tom Koehler about his last outing against Stephen Strasburg.
The sweetest stack of the night is in Houston, where the Royals face Scott Feldman. He’s allowed one run, walked eight, and struck out seven in 20.2 innings. Oh and he HIT five batters and features a .119 BABIP against. #RegressionIsComing
3.What’s up on Friday
Pitchers to Start: After watching Alfredo Simon’s last start, I’ve changed my mind about him. He’s usable against bad lineups like the Cubs. His breaking balls were much better than I remembered it, and he’s always had a nice fastball. He was working a nasty sinker, slutter, splitter combo.
Like Feldman, Aaron Harang has benefited from a .191 BABIP. Unlike Feldman, he’s pitched pretty well even without the luck. I’m open to riding the hot hand, plus he’s playing the Mets.
Nate Eovaldi is a high risk/reward play whenever it’s his turn. He’s at home against a tepid Mariners offense.
Tyson Ross has filthy movement. Sometimes he can’t control it, so be careful.
Pitchers to Exploit: Felipe Paulino belongs in the bullpen. I was hoping he’d begin the season there. Tomorrow he must somehow best the Rangers.
Kevin Kouzmanoff is batting fifth when he starts. Tomorrow might be one of those starts.
Chris Johnson should have cleanup duty against Jon Niese.
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
It remains cold in Minnesota, although the rain/snow threat is gone today. It’ll be a chilly doubleheader. The rest of the league is dry although some games will be a bit crisp.
The Link. It looks like the two games in Texas and one in Chicago are the games to target.
This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of FanDuel. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.
We know you play in all sorts of leagues. So to help you fine-tune the analysis you’d like to read, we’ve added three tags to the categories on the right: Roto, Head to Head, and Daily Fantasy Update. Use these to get the information that is most relevant to your leagues!
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam