The Daily Grind: Frustration

One more May day.

AGENDA

1. Frustration
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. Hitters to Use
5. SaberSim Says…
6. TDG Invitational Returns!

1. Frustration

I rostered -2.55 points from Tyler Anderson last night, and yet I still made money. Nothing can be more frustrating. Picking a typical 15 point pitcher was the difference between doubling and quintupling up (not to mention winning the Invitational).

I’m sure you’ve felt similar frustration while playing DFS – perhaps on a weekly basis. Remember that your decisions rarely exist in a vacuum. My next choice after Anderson was Dinelson Lamet. That would have given me about $2,000 extra budget. There’s a chance I wouldn’t have used Robbie Ray or Zack Cozart (combined 78.85 points). Possibly both of them if I endeavored to fit Chris Sale onto my roster. Better to have suffered Anderson while doubling up.

It’s a fickle game we play.

2. Weather Reports

Baltimore and St. Louis have a chance for late storms.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Early Slate: Four games are early. Zack Godley is the top value of the day per my own ministrations. He costs $8,700 for a visit to friendly PNC Park and a middling Pirates offense. Their hitters tend to perform much better on the road. Too many of them – especially Adam Frazier, John Jaso, and Josh Harrison – don’t have enough power to reliably escape their home park.

Your next best option is to bet a horse in the Dan Straily versus Aaron Nola race. Straily tends to be a solid core producer while Nola is quite a bit more volatile – mostly due to injury. The Phillies offense has a few potent ground ball hitters like Aaron Altherr, Maikel Franco, and Cesar Hernandez. Beware.

Stack Targets: Tim Adleman, Hector Santiago, Mike Bolsinger, Chad Kuhl, David Paulino

Main Slate: The nine game main slate is a bit of a mess. Four aces headline the action, but none of them are good values. Max Scherzer will probably pitch well at AT&T Park. The Giants tend to put the ball in play (weakly) which may cut into Scherzer’s production. For $13,300, I need 10 strikeouts.

Jacob deGrom costs $12,000 versus the volatile Brewers. While I like his potential to post big numbers opposite a strikeout prone offense, there’s also the risk of a dud. Chris Archer tends to struggle on the road. He’ll work at The Glob tonight; a hitter friendly park. The Rangers make for a tricky foe.

Last and possibly not least is Carlos Martinez. He’s opposed by a tough, left-handed Dodgers lineup. While CMart has improved versus southpaw swingers, he may make a few mistakes.

Beyond the top arms are a wide array of lesser options. Drew Pomeranz is coming off his best outing of the season. He’s struggled to last even five innings in most of his starts. His so-called “best” appearance only went six frames.

James Paxton is off the disabled list. Expect rust and a low pitch count. Elsewhere, Masahiro Tanaka is pure RNG.

Bargains include Jaime Garcia at Jesse Chavez, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Ian Kennedy, Junior Guerra, and Kevin Gausman.

Stack Targets: Austin Bibens-Dirkx, Mike Pelfrey, Gausman, Guerra, Matt Boyd, Matt Cain, Antonio Senzatela

4. Hitters to Use

Jonathan Lucroy has turned into Marco Scutaro. I’m not concerned about strikeouts against Archer. Others will avoid him.

Joey Votto plus other Reds look mighty tasty versus Bolsinger. It’s a small slate. The Reds stacks will be prevalent.

If you’re thinking about a stack against Gausman, then I recommend including some of the less popular connective bits like Starlin Castro. Obviously, go with Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner, and Gary Sanchez too.

Josh Donaldson exists again. I’m so pleased. Justin Smoak is high. I’m sure that’s a fresh joke.

Miguel Sano and friends should enjoy facing a reliever.

For a second straight day, Zack Cozart is the super secret top shortstop on the board. At least on MY board.

Yancy Eaton says you have to use Corey Dickerson since he’s now the best hitter in the league. He does have a good matchup and park. Logan Morrison, Colby Rasmus, and others may be more price effective.

5. SaberSim Says…

deGrom, Scherzer, Paxton, Archer, and CMart are the top rated pitchers. Ok, we’ve discussed them. Hitters include George Springer, Mookie Betts, Jose Altuve, Bryce Harper, and Carlos Correa. Nothing to see here.

6. The Daily Grind Invitational

We kind of sucked again, as evidenced by my placing fourth despite a negative pitching performance. The winner, yancyeaton, only outscored me by seven points. He used Ray along with Lamet and Logan Forsythe.  They combined for 90.9 of his 132.9 points. Leaderboard.

See ya on DraftKings tonight.