The Coldest Drops This Week 8/23: Yay or Nay?

Checking in on the hottest pickups this week is boring, because the players are already owned! More interesting, perhaps, are the players CBS fantasy owners are dropping en masse. Are owners overreacting to cold streaks or just dropping duds? I will exclude players on the DL.

Would you look at that? Braden Shipley, the man most added three weeks ago is now the man most dropped. A 5.79 ERA (5.48 SIERA) will do that. I expressed surprise by his top prospect status and concluded that blurb with:

I wouldn’t touch him, even in NL-Only leagues, and 53% ownership is far too high.

Hope you also listened to me and dropped him then, rather than after the poor four-start stretch! Even a 34% ownership rate is too high.

Tyler Skaggs‘ return from TJ Surgery perfectly illustrates the ups and downs recoverers (how is that not a word?) of the procedure typically endure. He has posted a ridiculous 9.88 ERA in his last three starts, but his fastball velocity averaged 94 mph in his last one. That’s quite notable, as it’s a whopping 0.7 mph higher than his previous average high velocity! While that has somehow now translated into more swings and misses (his SwStk% on the pitch is the lowest of his career), it’s a great sign for the future. I’d avoid him the rest of the year, but if his velocity sticks, he’ll make for a prime sleeper next season.

Welp, I certainly didn’t see the disaster that has been Luis Severino’s season coming. Then again, his peripherals were close to last year and SIERA identical. Really, the difference simply came down to our three luck metrics, as his BABIP skyrocketed from .265 to .350, HR/FB rate, which was already inflated last year, jumped above 20%, and those two issues served to suppress his LOB% to a lowly 56.1%. His velocity has been fine, so I wouldn’t give up on him just yet. If the Yankees were smart, they shouldn’t either. He could be a nice sleeper next year.

Carlos Estevez lasted in the closer role longer than I expected, but eventually he lost his mojo and he got demoted back to Triple-A. It has really just been an issue with stranding runners, which would probably correct itself if he stayed up. Obviously, no reason to hold onto him in any leagues.

Is James Shields really done as an effective pitcher? Just like that? He has struck out just one more batter than he has walked while with the White Sox. And his strikeout rate is a pathetic 10.2% in Chicago. And he has posted a 7.62 ERA over 14 starts. I don’t know what the issue is, but his changeup has lost its magic, and with a meh fastball, that was the pitch keeping him in the above average pitcher boat. I guess on name alone, half of all CBS owners are still holding out hope. I hate to completely ignore a pitcher’s track record, but hey, he’s 34, maybe he really is done. There’s absolutely nothing to point to that would make one think otherwise.

Injuries have vaulted Daniel Norris back into the Tigers rotation, and he has gotten excellent results (2.93 ERA) in his three starts since his recall, despite terrible skills (0% K-BB%, 5.82 SIERA). Typically, this is a case where I’d yell at fantasy owners for flocking to pick him up, but instead you guys are dropping him! Looking at his game log, it seems clear he was a two-start add, and now he’s getting dropped after the two-start week. The velocity bump is exciting, but it hasn’t done anything for him. I don’t know, he can’t seem to translate those minor league strikeouts into Major League ones.

After a breakout performance at Triple-A, Tyler Austin got the call to New York to help usher in a new wave of youngsters to Yankee Stadium. He hasn’t quite been a full-timer though and has posted just a .188 wOBA over his first 20 plate appearances. Obviously 20 plate appearances mean little, but fantasy owners are already losing patience. Perhaps it’s the 25.4% SwStk% and the eight strikeouts in those 20 plate appearances. It’s hard to play him when Mark Teixeira is still around to steal ABs, but he’s still a deep league option.