The Closer Report: American League Edition

Welcome to the first official RotoGraphs Closer Report for 2010. It’s been an eventful spring for closers already, with a handful of firemen already hitting the DL. The loss of Minnesota’s Joe Nathan has been the biggest blow so far.

1. New York Yankees (#1 in MLB)
The Man: Mariano Rivera
The Pitch: Cutter, 2.03 wCT/c (runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: He’s a frickin’ robot
The Comments: If you squint really, really hard you can see some possible signs of decline (highest FIP since 2000, highest HR/9 in his career) but you can also come up with explanations for the numbers. In truth, there really is nothing here that suggests a decline is coming in 2010 for the 40 year old.

The Back-up(s): Joba Chamberlain
The Future: Joba Chamberlain

2. Boston Red Sox (2)
The Man: Jonathan Papelbon
The Pitch: 95 mph fastball, 1.43 wFB/c
The Health Report: He’s had shoulder woes in the past
The Comments: Papelbon wasn’t able to follow up on his outstanding ’08 season but he could see more success in 2010 if he can get his ground-ball rate back up around 50% (It was at 26.7% in ’09). His fastball value has diminished over the past three seasons and it’s worth monitoring.

The Back-up(s): Manny Delcarmen, Daniel Bard
The Future: Daniel Bard

3. Kansas City Royals (4)
The Man: Joakim Soria
The Pitch: Curveball, 4.86 wCB/c
The Health Report: Shoulder woes derailed him in ’09
The Comments: With a significant drop in fastball value, Soria may want to rely on his breaking ball a little more often in 2010 (12% in ’09) if the heater doesn’t rebound. Even with his health woes and loss of success with his fastball, Soria struck out batters at a career-high rate: 11.72 K/9.

The Back-up(s): Kyle Farnsworth, Juan Cruz
The Future: Joakim Soria

4. Oakland Athletics (8)
The Man: Andrew Bailey
The Pitch: 94 mph fastball, 2.10 wFB/c
The Health Report: All systems go
The Comments: Bailey allowed just 49 hits in 83.1 innings of work in ’09 and he displayed the best control of his pro career (2.59 BB/9). Some regression is to be expected during his sophomore season so don’t overpay for his services.

The Back-up(s): Brad Ziegler
The Future: Bailey is the present and the future.

5. Tampa Bay Rays (11)
The Man: Rafael Soriano
The Pitch: 93 mph fastball, 1.42 wFB/c
The Health Report: Checkered past, but healthy this spring
The Comments: The Rays desperately need a healthy season from Soriano as the club has already lost J.P. Howell (17 saves in ’09) to injury. Even without considering his past health issues, Soriano is a high-risk, high-reward closer who has only had double-digit saves once in his eight-season career (27 in ’09).

The Back-up(s): Dan Wheeler
The Future: Jacob McGee

6. Detroit Tigers (12)
The Man: Jose Valverde
The Pitch: 96 mph fastball, 0.75 wFB/c
The Health Report: His ’09 calf injury is not considered chronic
The Comments: After back-to-back 40+ save seasons in ’07 and ’08, Valverde slipped to just 25 in ’09. Despite having good heat, the closer’s fastball has never been a dominating pitch; his splitter has potential but it’s inconsistent. He’ll be joining the American League in 2010 for the first time in his career.

The Back-up(s): Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya
The Future: Ryan Perry and/or Daniel Schlereth

7. Chicago White Sox (14)
The Man: Bobby Jenks
The Pitch: Curveball, 3.87 wCB/c
The Health Report: Struggling with a calf injury
The Comments: After saving 40+ games in each of his first two seasons as closer, Jenks has dipped to 30 and 29 over the past two seasons. A calf injury kept fellow closer Jose Valverde out for almost two months in ’09 so Matt Thornton could be pressed into duty, which may not be a bad thing; he might be a better closer option even if Jenks was healthy.

The Back-up(s): Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz
The Future: TBD

8. Seattle Mariners (16)
The Man: David Aardsma
The Pitch: 94 mph fastball, 1.78 wFB/c
The Health Report: Some groin soreness, but relatively healthy
The Comments: Given a legitimate shot to close at the MLB level for the first time in his career, Aardsma did not disappoint with 38 in 42 tries. He allowed just 49 hits in 71.1 innings of work and posted a strikeout rate of 10.09 K/9. Aardsma has a history of inconsistency and control issues (4.29 BB/9 in ’09), though.

The Back-up(s): Mark Lowe, Brandon League
The Future: TBD

9. Los Angeles Angels (17)
The Man: Brian Fuentes
The Pitch: 90 mph fastball, 0.81 wFB/c
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The Angels clubs always seems to get save opportunities for its closer and Fuentes led the Majors in saves in ’09 with 48. The 34-year-old reliever doesn’t have the most dominating stuff, but he’s saved 20 or more games over the past five seasons. His fastball was his only positive-valued pitch in ’09.

The Back-up(s): Fernando Rodney
The Future: Kevin Jepsen (Hat tip to Jeremy Greenhouse)

10. Texas Rangers (19)
The Man: Frank Francisco
The Pitch: Splitter, 1.45 wSF/c
The Health Report: Looking good
The Comments: Mr. Inconsistent has all the ingredients to be a successful closer but he needs to put it all together and keep his head screwed on straight. The 29.5% ground-ball rate from ’09 scares me more than a little bit.

The Back-up(s): C.J. Wilson, Chris Ray
The Future: Tanner Scheppers

11. Baltimore Orioles (21)
The Man: Mike Gonzalez
The Pitch: Slider, 1.09 wSL/c
The Health Report: Wonky back, and he missed big parts of ’07 and ’08 (TJ surgery)
The Comments: Gonzalez got good money to sign as the club’s closer but he played second fiddle to Rafael Soriano in Atlanta last season and the former Pirate blew seven saves in 17 opportunities. Even so, he has the stuff to close if his control is anywhere close to average.

The Back-up(s): Jim Johnson, Koji Uehara
The Future: Kam Mickolio or Brandon Erbe

12. Toronto Blue Jays (27)
The Man: Kevin Gregg
The Pitch: 92 mph fastball, 0.59 wFB/c
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Gregg may walk a rotting tight rope during each save opportunity, but the dude is durable after appearing in 70+ games each of the past three seasons. He’s also blown 16 saves over the past two seasons (68 opportunities). Jason Frasor is likely trade bait by the end of the spring if the Jays get a good offer and there are clubs that could use his help.

The Back-up(s): Scott Downs, Jason Frasor
The Future: Zach Stewart and/or Danny Farquhar

13. Cleveland Indians (29)
The Man: Kerry Wood
The Pitch: Curveball, 1.61 wCB/c
The Health Report: Down and out for 6-8 weeks (lat muscle)
The Comments: Wood knows the infirmary well, but this injury may be a good thing. The club is not going to win in 2010 so some of the young pitchers might as well gain some valuable, late-game experience. Chris Perez has the pedigree and is coming off of a successful sophomore season, but he also has control (4.26 BB/9) and gopher (1.26 HR/9) issues.

The Back-up(s): Chris Perez, Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez
The Future: Chris Perez and/or Jess Todd

14. Minnesota Twins (30)
The Man: Joe Nathan
The Pitch: 93 mph fastball, 1.66 wFB/c
The Health Report: Done for 2010 and into 2011
The Comments: Nathan was trying to avoid it, but finally gave in on Sunday and is headed for Tommy John surgery. Mijares is young and inexperienced, but he has a good fastball/slider combination. Guerrier is more about pitchability than pure stuff but he could have success pounding the strike zone with three quality pitches.

The Back-up(s): Jose Mijares, Matt Guerrier
The Future: Carlos Gutierrez and/or Billy Bullock

Up Next: The National League Closers