The Change: Don’t Forget Your Auction Endgame Strategy

Here, let me bare my flaws to you. Let me be your guinea pig. Here, laugh at me for my mistakes. I’ve made a few. Here, please let’s point and smirk at my final player on my American League LABR squad. He deserves multiple question marks and perhaps a few exclamation marks. Here, let’s learn from this. So we don’t do it again.

All in all, I love this team. Even if it’s got a cowlick that sticks up no matter how much spit and water you stick on it. Even if you really, really, *really* shouldn’t look at last year’s numbers when giving it a once over. Even if I spent a little too much on Jose Abreu. Even if I’m a little nervous about my second-most expensive bat. Even if I hate my closer.

Here’s the full board. Here’s my team.

Pos	“All The Wrong Cabreras”	$
C	Russell Martin	15
C	Chris Iannetta	9
1B	Jose Abreu	37
2B	Rougned Odor	16
SS	Asdrubal Cabrera	16
3B	Chase Headley	16
MI	Everth Cabrera	5
CI	Nick Castellanos	14
OF	Avisail Garcia	19
OF	Alejandro De Aza	11
OF	Michael Bourn	8
OF	Dustin Ackley	7
OF	Robbie Grossman	9
UT	Kennys Vargas	8
b	Batting Total	190
SP	Marcus Stroman	20
SP	Matt Shoemaker	11
SP	Drew Hutchison	9
SP	Trevor Bauer	5
SP	Shane Greene	7
SP	Kyle Gibson	2
RP	Neftali Feliz	14
RP	Tanner Scheppers	1
RP	Kevin Jepsen	1
p	Pitching Total	70
	Percentage Bat	0.731
	Reserves
	Maicer Izturis	pick 11
	Gavin Floyd	13
	Ivan Nova	35
	Steve Moya	37
	Domingo Santana	59
	Henry Owens	61

First, allow me to talk about what I like about this team.

Youth
My lineup averages 27.4 years old, which is probably up from last year, but is still comfortably in peak range. That feels like an ideal range because those sort of players usually have some sort of track record, but could have better days in front of them. Hopefully this year’s young guys (Rougned Odor and Avisail Garcia) both keep their jobs all year. Last year’s (Brian Dozier and Brad Miller) split the wicket.

My rotation is 26.2 on average, and I’m more comfortable with a lesser track record for pitchers. Fastball velocity goes nowhere but down, and these guys threw enough major league pitches and gave us enough data to like what they’ve done so far. I like each and every one of these pitchers better than their projections. Since we all used very similar projections, that meant I was going to end up with them.

Balance
I don’t go into my first few picks needing to get certain benchmarks, but trading is difficult in LABR. Last year’s win (my Alex Meyer for Ray Flowers’ J.D. Martinez) aside, trades are rare. So you do have to think about how your roster looks by the end.

My lineup is projected for 189 homers and 112 stolen bases. That would have ranked second and seventh respectively last year, and I have hope that Everth Cabrera and Michael Bourn will steal more bases this year, given that Bourn’s manager said the player would and I’m betting on Cabrera for playing time either at second or all over the infield in Baltimore.

Batting	PA	BA	HR	SB	R	RBI	Age
Russell Martin	509	0.241	16	6	60	59	32
Chris Iannetta	416	0.223	10	3	45	40	31
Jose Abreu	609	0.293	36	3	88	102	28
Rougned Odor	545	0.253	13	14	58	60	21
Asdrubal Cabrera	600	0.244	13	8	64	60	29
Chase Headley	597	0.257	16	7	67	67	30
Everth Cabrera	220	0.251	2	12	24	16	28
Nick Castellanos	523	0.264	14	3	55	59	23
Avisail Garcia	549	0.264	18	9	60	67	23
Alejandro De Aza	519	0.262	10	16	60	48	30
Michael Bourn	632	0.253	6	20	71	45	32
Dustin Ackley	550	0.252	12	7	60	55	27
Robbie Grossman	121	0.236	2	3	13	10	25
Kennys Vargas	524	0.252	21	1	60	70	24
Sum		0.255	189	112	785	758	27.4

Opportunity
I don’t have many dollar players. I don’t like dollar players. They are usually long shots for a role somewhere, and destined for the waiver wire. Most of the players on my team are headed into the season with a defined role, and have a good playing time floor.

I’m leaving one player for last, he shall not be named early. But even if Dustin Ackley ends up platooning, and Everth Cabrera doesn’t take the job right out of Spring Training, they should get playing time. Cabrera is better than Ryan Flaherty, can play some short behind a balky-backed J.J. Hardy, and can be useful at third depending on what happens with Manny Machado’s knee this year. Maicer Izturis might even win the second-base job outright, but if he doesn’t, he’ll be on my taxi squad, filling in for injuries all over the roster.

Pitching	IP	ERA	WHIP	K	SV	W	Age
Marcus Stroman	194	3.68	1.22	173		13	23
Matt Shoemaker	190	3.97	1.22	149		12	28
Drew Hutchison	167	4.06	1.26	159		11	24
Trevor Bauer	183	4.45	1.38	168		10	24
Shane Greene	129	4.45	1.37	96		8	26
Kyle Gibson	148	4.48	1.42	95		8	27
Neftali Feliz	65	3.82	1.32	59	33	3	26
Tanner Scheppers	55	3.68	1.29	48	2	3	28
Kevin Jepsen	55	3.09	1.19	59	3	3	30
Sum	1186	4.06	1.30	1006	38	71	26.2
Reserves
Gavin Floyd	84	4.21	1.31	65		5
Ivan Nova	113	4.08	1.29	88		7
Henry Owens	46	4.07	1.37	43		3

I was interested in dollar pitchers like Nicholas Tropeano and Chase Whitley, but I just couldn’t stomach the risk and went with guys like Shane Greene and Kyle Gibson instead — they have roles, and they have upside. Greene’s new use of the four-seamer and added refinement of the change could help him keep a shiny ERA, while Gibson just needs to throw the junk a little more to get whiffs. Their current pitches all have good shape and velocity. Leave the dollar longshots to the reserves, where Ivan Nova could get healthy and help, and Henry Owens could wow us. (Too bad about Gavin Floyd.)

Where I Screwed Up
So, what happened was that I basically had $5 allotted for Kyle Gibson. And I probably shouldn’t have bought Kevin Jepsen for a dollar so early.

I didn’t go to $8 on Kevin Kiermaier even though I had the young Ray worth about $11, because I still had five bucks in my plan for a starting pitcher. I’m kicking myself now because of that decision. Once I got Gibson for less, I jumped in on Logan Morrison, who I had worth $11 in the outfield and looked like the last good outfielder left. I got him for $7 and thought I had put together a beautiful team, perhaps with a little power surplus.

Oops.

Logan Morrison was not an outfielder (only ten games, LABR needs 20), he was removed from my team, and I had some egg frying on my red face. I had Robbie Grossman at $5 of value, probably could have gotten him for two or three bucks, but I had only one roster slot let. Because I had locked in Kevin Jepsen for a buck earlier.

A few mistakes led to a bad final roster decision. Remember that leaving an open roster slot at the end gives you flexibility, that relievers — especially dollar ones — aren’t a priority. Remember to keep a good eye on what’s left in your position of needs. Remember not to get too wed to the exact positions and players next to your planned budget numbers near the end of the draft.

Remember these things and you won’t end up with Robbie Grossman for $9 at the end of your draft.

(I do actually like Robbie a little — I don’t think much of Jake Marisnick’s bat and think Grossman could get another extended look. Between him, Domingo Santana, and the waiver wire — and maybe a little luck with Vargas in the outfield, I might yet solve that roster slot this year.)

Update: Stroman out for the season. Welp.