The Biggest Value Gainers From the First Half

It can be fascinating to look back and see where some players were ranked in the preseason. After all, many of these breakouts are easy to see now with the context of the first half to work with. Whether it be improved health, repeating a breakout performance, or just getting called up for the prospects, these players are now ranked well ahead of where they were entering the season. While these guys may not be the biggest surprises, they’ve certainly made the leap.

Todd Frazier – Oops. Frazier perplexed me in the preseason and so I straddled the fence with a “nod politely and don’t have a strong take on him one way or the other”-stance, which is never a good thing. However, even his most staunch proponents didn’t imagine a first half quite like this.

His HR/FB rate is only slightly higher than last season. The homers are coming because he’s pulling the ball more and hitting a ton of fly balls. So the power is legit, is the average? He’s trimmed his strikeout rate while swinging at more pitches out of the zone (and more overall). It’s tough to see that dip in strikeouts continuing unless he becomes more discerning. The projections agree, calling for a strikeout rate closer to his career rate the rest of the way, plus an average no higher than .266 (ZiPS). Even at that average, a healthy Frazier seems like a lock to hit 35 home runs, steal close to 15 bases and be one of fantasy’s best players this season.

Nolan Arenado – I was definitely slow to come around on Arenado. I didn’t see the power upside. That clearly looks like a mistake now. I am a little worried the extra aggressiveness he’s picked up will affect his batting average. He’s now swinging more across the board and he was pretty aggressive to start with. Of course, when he’s hitting 24 home runs before July, fantasy owners aren’t too worried about how he’s doing it.

Manny Machado – As a former top prospect who’s 23 years old and second only to Frazier among third basemen in wRC+, I don’t see Machado getting out of the second round in drafts next year, a big improvement from this preseason. He’s added the ability to hit with power the other way, knocking six opposite-field home runs already after hitting two in the first 178 games of his career. He’s cut down impressively on the number of pitches he’s swinging at out of the zone, which has helped to slice his swinging strike rate. Now past his knee injuries, he’s stealing plenty of bases as well.

Yoenis Cespedes – There’s reason to worry about Cespedes’ plate discipline as his walk rate has declined every season since his debut. He’s also swung at slightly more pitches out of the zone in each season. Even with the worst BB/K of his career, he’s hitting nearly 30 points better than his career average and much better than each of the past two seasons. That all sounds kind of bad, so why the jump in value?

His average might not be all mirage. His batted ball profile looks much more like his rookie season than the past two, meaning his BABIP could be sustainable, meaning his average might not be a sunk cost like the past two seasons. His solid power looks much more appealing with an average north of .290.

Charlie Blackmon – Blackmon’s become a bit of a different hitter this season, swinging far less, making more hard contact and pulling the ball more. The changes have resulted in about 20 feet added to his fly ball + home run distance. Taking all of that in, I like the over on the seven home runs ZiPS and Steamer project the rest of the way. The 23 steals at the half are a nice bonus too.

J.D. Martinez – Another 2014 breakout who most didn’t believe in, Martinez has shown even more power than last year and the expected drop in his BABIP hasn’t caused a terrible average either. He’s making the most hard contact in baseball (non-Giancarlo Stanton division) and has improved on last year’s impressive fly ball + home run distance. He does lead the majors in “Just Enough” home runs via ESPN’s Home Run Tracker, so he might slow a bit in the second half. Like Blackmon, his placement here is mostly about him proving last year wasn’t a total fluke.

A.J. Pollock – Pollock’s past 161 games include 18 home runs and 33 steals, which is right about what should be expected for his season totals this year. It was risky to buy into his performance with only 75 games last season. Those who did are making a tidy profit.

Joc Pederson – Because Pederson strikes out a lot, it’s easy to look at his dismal batting average and not expect more. In fact, I think there’s room for improvement as his BABIP against righties is just .262. His .364 BABIP against lefties will probably drop, but since he’s seen four times as many plate appearances against righties, the net effect should be a positive one. He’s struggled to find a groove on the basepaths with two steals on seven attempts. While he wasn’t overly efficient stealing bases in the minors, he was better. The 20 home runs so far are great and I see plenty more upside with some steals and a slightly better average.

Prospect gainers: Kris Bryant has been everything that was expected, though the .369 BABIP and 29.7 K% suggest there’s some downside to his batting average… Carlos Correa’s approach has been a bit different this month, when he’s shown more patience and less power. The overall package is still impressive. He hasn’t been caught stealing yet and he doesn’t have a big enough sample to call his slight struggles against righties a real worry yet… It’s fairly likely Miguel Sano’s .600 BABIP and 40 HR/FB rate will come down a bit. As expected, he’s striking out a ton. He’s also showing good recognition of pitches out of the zone and making a lot of hard contact. Remember to put this all through the lense of an 11-game sample.