The Baltimore Rotation: Move Along

It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

It isn’t that the Baltimore Orioles lack a front end starter, they just lack one until Dylan Bundy makes his comeback. He is already set to hit the ground running in spring training, and given the rest of the rotation, Bundy is by far the most intriguing and highest upside stater in Baltimore. That he may or may not even pitch in the majors this season doesn’t speak well for their rotation. Looking at Fantasy Pros ADP — which utilizes info from Yahoo!, NFBC, Fantrax and RealTime Sports — the highest drafted Baltimore starter is Chris Tillman around pick 228 as the 62nd starter off the board. Before we beat up on the rotation too much, lets take a closer look at each hurler.

Front Five
Chris Tillman
Wei-Yin Chen
Kevin Gausman
Bud Norris
Miguel Gonzalez

Other Options
Dylan Bundy
Ubaldo Jimenez

On the Farm
Tim Berry
Mike Wright
Zach Davies

The Front Five
Tillman is the de facto ace of a staff that finished last season with the second lowest starting pitcher WAR in the American League. Both Tillman and the rotation as a whole are fly ball pitchers and together the O’s rotation posted the second highest fly ball rate in baseball. The fly balls will help keep a BABIP relatively low, however home runs tend to go hand in hand with them. Tillman is no exception, giving up 21 dingers last year, but that was an improvement on the 33 long balls he surrendered in 2013. In spite of his gopher-itits, Tillman is a solid pitcher who has thrown more than 200 innings for two years in a row, though don’t expect too many strikeouts. He’s never posted an above average swinging strike rate or K%, thus his fantasy value takes a dip. Tillman is a strong SP4 in most fantasy leagues as he doesn’t have any platoon issues and is reliable, however if you count on him to anchor your staff you’ll be in trouble.

Chen gets even fewer strikeouts than Tillman and has averaged not even a 7.00 K/9 in his 500+ major league innings. He flashed improved control last season, posting career bests with a 1.70 BB/9 and 61.3% first strike rate, both above league average marks. Looking at his probable numbers and 87 SP ADP, Chen is probably best suited as a match up starter or stream candidate. To his credit, Chen has consistently beaten his ERA estimators as his career 4.07 SIERA 3.86 ERA reflect, something that the rest of the staff also does quite well. As a whole, the O’s starter’s 3.61 ERA crushed their 4.12 FIP, the second biggest gap in baseball and best in the AL. For a better context, since 2009 — about when offense really began to dip league wide — the 2014 O’s -0.56 ranks third best. A repeat performance of that magnitude isn’t something most would count on.

The 24-year-old Gausman is interesting, if only because I am a sucker for a splitter. Gausman utilized his split-finger fastball over 18% of the time last season, as per Brooks Baseball. He generated  an impressive 21% whiff rate on it as well, the highest whiff rate of any of his pitches by almost 8%. If Gausman continues to attack hitters with his strong splitter then he may just post the best season of any Baltimore starter. I’d be inclined to take Gausman over any other O’s hurler given his age and upside, just be aware he is unlikely to produce another 0.56 HR/9 season. Standard 12-team leagues may be able to leave him on the waiver wire (though I wouldn’t recommend that) whereas 14/15-team formats will definitely want to pick him up.

Since 2009 Norris’ swinging strike rate has dropped each season. On the other hand his walk rate has dropped too, so, there’s that. The brilliant and handsome Michael Barr noted a change in pitch frequency to opposite-handed batters and while the .333 wOBA Norris surrendered to left-handed hitters is nothing to write home about, it is markedly better than his career .351 against them. Repeating his 3.65 ERA is unlikely — have I mentioned how crazy it is each starter beat their advanced metrics together for this O’s team? — but Norris remains a stream starter, much like he has for the past few seasons.

Probably the weirdest thing about the 2014 O’s rotation is Gonzalez’s ridiculous 3.23 ERA against his 4.89 FIP. Going back to 2009 again, this -1.62 difference is the highest season mark, minimum 100 IP. For kicks and giggles I went back to 1920 and discovered Gonzalez posted the 13th most fortunate season in baseball. We basically witnessed baseball history with him. I’ll take “Things I Never Would Have Guessed, Ever” for 1200, Alex. Gonzalez is another extreme fly ball guy, as his 37.1% ground ball rate ranked 20th lowest of 140 starters last season. I suppose I could imagine a situation where I desperately needed pitching help and decided to pick him up, but that scenario is worse than the darkest timeline.

Other Options
Bundy pitching without restrictions this spring is a great sign, however it seems likely he’ll head to Double-A to begin the season. Assuming he does start in the minors, be sure to track his progression as Bundy’s upside is pretty incredible. For most 12-team leaguers he should remain undrafted for now, unless he posts an incredible spring training and the O’s accelerate his timeline, but in deeper leagues it wouldn’t be a waste to spend a dollar or two/a late round pick on him.

Jimenez’s brutal walk rate torpedoes the rest of his numbers. Despite a 8.33 K/9 last year his K:BB ratio was a poor 1.51. Giving starts on your fantasy team to Ubaldo is beyond risky and if someone did it in my league, I may call for a matchfixing or collusion investigation.

On the Farm
The trio of Davies, Wright and Berry could all see time in the big league rotation — or bullpen — at some point this year. Our own Kiley McDaniel ranked Davies the highest, noting his strong ground ball rates — over 50% in Double-A last season — and strikeout to walk ratio. Berry may ultimately end up in the bullpen but he does posses three solid pitches, so his potential as a starter hasn’t been exhausted just yet. Wright is the only one of the three to have any Triple-A experience, tallying a total of 147.1 innings between 2013 and 2014, with the vast majority coming last season. McDaniel believes Wright improved his slider in the back half of last season and he has the chance to stick as a starter if those improvements prove to be real.

The O’s don’t offer much in terms of starting pitching, though there is upside in Bundy and reliable if not spectacular numbers available from Tillman. If I had to draft one Baltimore pitcher it would be Gausman, as I like his pitching profile the most. Beyond that, go ahead and move along, nothing to see here.