The Bad Investments You Have To Make

Sometimes we know something is a bad investment, but there’s nothing we can do about it. Cars – especially new cars. Hideously expensive and they hemorrhage value as you sink more and more dollars into them. But with a few exceptions, you have to either buy one, waste a couple hours per day on buses, or live in the only U.S. city with a viable subway. So I pay to own a car even though I work 40 feet from my bed. I bought it for something like $15,000 a little over four years ago, and now it’s only worth half that. Soon I’ll have to perform expensive maintenance like replacing all the tires. Dumb. Dumb. Dumb.

Closers

On the baseball side of things, closers are like this. Since punting categories almost never works, you can…

• Overpay for a closer who actually helps multiple categories, forgoing a more valuable investment.
• Overpay for a closer who only compiles saves. These guys also frequently lose their jobs.
• Bet the hard eight by paying for $1 non-closers. This does not mean Andrew Miller or Dellin Betances or Nate Jones or Kyle Barraclough. They cost as much or more than the crappy closers.

Your investment options are a range of gambles. Do you take the certainty, the minimum required production, or risk drafting no saves? In snake drafts, I usually find myself comfortable spending on one of the top arms. That means sniping Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, or Zach Britton this year. The first closer run usually coincides with a flattening of the hitter pool.

Auctions are trickier. In non-keepers, I plan to be involved in the bidding for the top names just in case they go at an affordable price. Then I try to get me some of those mediocre types. And if all else fails, my closer beat usually puts me ahead of the competition when it comes to finding gems on the wire.

Aces

Aces are another bad investment. And they’re another investment you almost have to make. Like closers, you have a few options.

• Pay for Clayton Kershaw and hope it’s not the year he stops being Kershaw (it will happen eventually).
• Overpay for the volatile “other” aces. Last year, I was all over Chris Archer and Dallas Keuchel. Loved them both. Oops.
• Try to anticipate the next breakouts. You’ll probably overpay here too.

Here’s the thing though – you absolutely need ace quality pitching to win most leagues. I’d love to always have Kershaw. Who wouldn’t? Depending on the depth of obvious breakout candidates, I may or may not bother with the non-Kershaw aces. They’re certainly the second most reliable place to look for ace stats – they’ve done it before. However, they’re also a lousy dollar-for-dollar investment. Over any kind of large sample, you will return a loss. For every season you spike Johnny Cueto and Corey Kluber, you’ll have something like 1.25 seasons when an Archer or Keuchel ruin things.

Chasing the breakouts is a great investment. If you have any analytical skills at all – or even if you just read the right writers – you’ll make a bundle on these low cost projects. However, to win a league, you’ll usually need a couple elite performances. When $2 Jharel Cotton produces $10, that’s great. Really. It’s also not going to win you a league. Even if you draft six $2 pitchers and they all perform at a $10 level, you will not win your league. Third place though. Yea, third place. Congrats on the $48 of surplus value.

This article was inspired by Paul Sporer writing about fading the aces. For more perspective on this topic, give his article a read.

Catchers

Catchers…In leagues with very thin benches, I often find myself temporarily cutting my catchers to chase other categories. This extends naturally from my go big or go zero strategy to the position. The full time back stops like Buster Posey and Jonathan Lucroy provide a massive relative benefit. However, they’re also drafted alongside hitters with at least 125 percent of the raw production. Your job is figure out when 20 catcher home runs are worth 25 outfield home runs (plus 10 steals). It’s tough to forgo established, near-elite hitters to draft the best catchers.

Once you get past the aging veterans and youthful studs (Gary Sanchez and Kyle Schwarber where eligible), the middle tier presents very little value. Like with closers, sometimes there’s a lull in snake drafts where it just makes sense to secure a decent catcher like Yasmani Grandal. Usually I’ll just grab whatever’s left over. Austin Hedges? Cameron Rupp? Then when I need a Monday or Thursday streamer, I’ll cut them because there’s always a facsimile on the waiver wire.

In an auction, chasing the big names is a little simpler. I trust my ability to find $1 production at multiple positions. That means I can budget $25 for Posey instead of Yoenis Cespedes. However, it’s generally a good idea to make sure all of your catcher targets are nominated early. If you’re forced to pivot, you’ll want to be sure appropriate talents are still on the board.