The A.L. Closer Report: 9/12

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Rivera missed several games with a sore groin, but he returned to pick up a save vs. the fading Rays on Sept. 7th (2 K, 1 BB) and then notched a W with a scoreless inning against Tampa the next day. The ageless king of the cutter has 9.99 K/9, with 1.56 BB/9 in 57.2 innings. That biting 91 MPH offering has been worth +2.34 runs per 100 pitches thrown.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon pitched a scoreless frame in a non-save situation against the White Sox on Sept. 6th, then surrendered a run and 2 H in a 1.1 inning save vs. the O’s on the 9th. Despite suffering through some control issues earlier in the year, Papelbon leads all big league relievers with a 4.57 Win Probability Added.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Since he was shockingly beaten for four runs and two dingers against the White Sox on Sept 2nd, Nathan has rebounded to collect three saves in three spotless innings (4 K, no walks or hits). The 34 year-old righty has shown no signs of tailing off in 2009, whiffing 11.82 batters per nine frames with 2.72 BB/9. Nathan’s 33.2 O-Swing% is his best mark dating back to 2002 (25% MLB avg), and his Expected Fielding Independent ERA sits at a shiny 3.01.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Joakim was a busy man this week, collecting four saves (one apiece against LAA and CLE, and two vs. Detroit). In all, Soria struck out eight, walked one and allowed no runs in 3.2 IP. The Mexicutioner’s K rate has spiked in ’09, all the way up to 12.13 per nine innings (8.82 in 2008). Not surprisingly, Soria’s contact rate (71.5%, 80.5 MLB avg.) is a career low. His curveball (+4.79 runs/100 pitches thrown) is illegal in several states.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

As Dave Allen notes, Bailey has turned in a superb rookie campaign. The imposing right-hander has laid waste to hitters with a stifling 94 MPH fastball (+1.86 runs/100), 89 MPH cutter (+1.24) and a 78 MPH curve (+2.97). Bailey has been worth 2 Wins Above Replacement this season. Only Jonathan Broxton, Brian Wilson and Matt Thornton top that mark among relievers. The 25 year-old picked up his 23rd save of the season on Sept. 6th, striking out two against the Mariners.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Bobby worked just once since we last checked in on the A.L.’s closers, firing two scoreless innings vs. the A’s in a non-save situation on Sept. 9th. Jenks’ secondary stuff has been outstanding in 2009 (+1.91 runs/100 for the slider, +3.45 for the curve), but his fastball hasn’t been as effective. Bobby’s heater was worth +1.55 runs/100 in both 2007 and 2008, but the pitch checks in at -0.47 this year.

David Aardsma, Mariners

Aardsma has experienced plenty of control issues during the course of his big league career (5.3 BB/9), but he has not issued a free pass in his last seven frames. The electric right-hander hasn’t been a strike-throwing fiend or anything, but his 4.6 BB/9 rate is a career-best. Aardsma has been rather fortunate in the HR department (3.6 HR/FB%), but Safeco is a pretty sweet venue for a flyball reliever backed by outstanding defenders. His XFIP is 4.23.

In Control

J.P. Howell, Rays

Things have not been A-Okay for J.P. lately, as the finesse lefty who gets power results has given up four runs and four walks in 2 IP this month. Howell has actually appeared in five games in September, but one stint lasted just 0.1 IP, and his last two (the 5th and the 6th vs. Detroit) resulted in his being pulled before he recorded an out.

J.P.’s K rate has increased three years running (8.65 in ’07, 9.27 in ’08 and 10.74 in ’09), but so has his walk rate (3.71 in ’07, 3.93 in ’08, 4.24 in ’09). Despite the rough patch, Howell’s XFIP is still sturdy at 3.46.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Watch out for: C.J. Wilson

Frank took the mound just once this past week, as Texas throttled Cleveland by a combined score of 31-14 in a three-game sweep. Francisco worked a scoreless frame during the first game of a Sept. 8th double-header vs. the Tribe, serving up a two-run tater to Matt LaPorta.

The 30 year-old power righty has punched out 9.94 hitters per nine frames in 2009, with a career-low 2.38 BB/9. Francisco is really attacking the strike zone (55.7 Zone%, 49.3% MLB avg.), and when he does place one off the plate, batters are chasing more often (26.9 O-Swing%, 22.7% career avg).

Brian Fuentes, Angels

After walking just one hitter in August, Fuentes has issued ball four on five occasions in 4 September frames. He has allowed five hits and two runs in the process. Fuentes’ XFIP has ballooned to 4.83 in 2009, as his K rate is a career-worst 7.99 per nine innings. Nothing seems imminent here, but it wouldn’t be a bad idea to keep any eye on Jason Bulger down the stretch.

The 30 year-old former 1st-round pick of the D-Backs has posted rates of 8.74 K/9 and 4.21 BB/9 this year. Control has always been a bugaboo for Bulger, however. He has issued 4.6 BB/9 during his major league tenure, with a 47.8 first-pitch strike% (58.2 MLB avg).

Jason Frasor/Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Downs is back, but Frasor continues to get the call in the ninth inning. Frasor racked up three saves this week, taking down the Twins twice (Sept. 8th and the 10th) and then de-clawing the Tigers yesterday. He struck out two in three scoreless innings, without allowing a hit.

The former 33rd-round draft pick who bounced from Detroit to Los Angeles (Dodgers) before getting a shot in Toronto has posted rates of 8.76 K/9 and 2.68 BB/9 in 2009. An increase in his outside swing% (up to 24.8%; his career mark is 19%) has helped, and Frasor has turned in a very fine year. But a .250 BABIP and a 5.3 HR/FB% explain the difference between his great ERA (2.15) and merely good XFIP (3.77).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Rodney is enduring an awfully rough September, having allowed five runs, four hits and five walks in 4.2 IP. The pending free agent may come with the Proven Closer (TM) tag, but his peripherals (8.37 K/9, 4.62 BB/9) remain more adequate than awesome. The 32 year-old has a 4.21 XFIP in 2009, the third straight season in which that figure has risen.

Jim Johnson, Orioles

Appearances have been few and far between for Johnson as Baltimore plays out the string. The Bronx Bombers bashed Jim for 3 hits, 5 runs and two walks without retiring a batter on Sept. 2nd, and then he picked up a save in a much more quiet cameo against Texas on the 5th. In 61.2 IP this season, Johnson has struck out 6.28 per nine innings, with 2.92 BB/9.

Watch Your Back

Kerry Wood, Indians

Watch Out For: Chris Perez

Wood took some time off to rest his ailing shoulder, but he has chucked two clean innings since returning. He notched his 18th and 19th saves of the season against Minnesota on Sept. 4th and the 6th. That’s a happy development for Wood. Because, if you listen really closely, you can hear Perez breathing down Kerry’s neck.

The former St. Louis Cardinal experienced a bump in the road vs. Texas on the 8th (Marlon Byrd took him deep), but Perez has been money for the most part. Since coming to Cleveland, he has posted a 32/8 K/BB ratio in 25.2 IP.