The 41st Annual Firsties!

Thank you, thank you. Welcome back to the next round of fantasy baseball awards that nearly no one was asking for! I’m talking, of course, about the Firsties! The Firsties first came into our lives over 40 years ago and we here at the Academy would like to thank all of you for continuing to care super, duper, deeply about these fake awards. But before we get into these hotly contested awards, the committee would like to make one small announcement, as there seems to have been some earlier confusion about acceptable levels of shenanigans.

Just so we’re crystal – we are currently operating at a 0% Shenanigan Level. Not 10%, not 5%, not even 1%. Zero. Anyone not adhering to said policy will be asked to go inside and stop letting the sun warm your face for a minimum of one month because it’s time to get cereal. Super cereal.

Let the show continue – it’s the Firsties!

And the Firstie for “I Can’t Believe Atlanta Pulled Off Swapping Freddie Freeman For a Younger (/Better) Freddie Freeman” goes to…Matt Olson!

Now, “better” is an obviously relative term and I certainly won’t be taking any shots against Freeman, who happens to be one of my original fantasy crushes, drafting the precocious (and just 20 years old) in my very first dynasty draft. But you just have to admire the stones/how well it worked out for Atlanta to let Freeman punt himself to the Dodgers and instead trade for Matt Olson, who immediately went ham in the new uni, finishing as arguably the #1 1B in fantasy.

I say arguably because their production was a coin-flip in total value (depending on the system used) but with very differently weighted categorical contributions:

• Matt Olson: 54 HR – 127 R – 139 RBI – 1 SB – .283 AVG
• Freddie Freeman: 29 HR – 131 R – 102 RBI – 23 SB – .331 AVG

In the first few drafts for 2024 (n=3), Freeman is barely the top choice (min: 5, max: 9) over Olson (min: 10, max: 15) and I’m pretty sure you could pick via eenie-meenie-miney-mo and be perfectly fine. But I suspect I’ll be favoring Olson, given their fantasy profiles – a large chunk of Freeman’s value was wrapped in a .331 AVG that came with a .370 BABIP and 23 SB that virtually doubled up the field but whose overall value might keep getting watered down as the new rules continue to provide more and more sources to get your speed fix.

And the Firstie for “Sweet Lord, This Take Aged Like the Sourest of Milks”, goes to…Paul Goldschmidt!

Sigh; let’s get this over with – from the archives:

Narrator: Paul Goldschmidt finished with a .268 AVG.

And the Firstie for “The Mid-est of the Mid” goes to…Andrew Vaughn!

After that Goldschmidt-flavored Warhead, I definitely need a palate cleanser…Form of, victory-lap!

From the preseason archives:

Let’s check in on his above per-600 PA rates heading into the season compared to how he finished:

• 615 PA: 21 HR – 67 R – 80 RBI – 0 SB – .258 AVG

And now, just for my exclusive readers, we now go live to Vaughn’s 2024 final line(ish):

• 615 PA: 22 HR – 70 R – 82 RBI – 0 SB – .260 AVG

Omg you guys, it’s almost the exact same thing. Spooky.

There’s nothing wrong with Vaughn’s 2023 actual fantasy line, or the 2024 one I made just made up with barely any thought. And we also shouldn’t underestimate the value of consistency, as it is comforting to have at least a few guys on your roster whose production you are confident in. You just have to pay the right price on draft day so when you get what you get, then you won’t get upset*.

*a philosophy courtesy of my kid’s kindergarten class

And the Firstie for “We Really Need to Get a More Modern Reference Than Rodney Dangerfield to Highlight Someone Getting No Respect” goes to…Christian Walker!

He’ll get some now, ri-ggghht??? After hitting 36 HR in 2022 and finishing as a top-10 first baseman, Walker’s price did rise up to a ~120 ADP but as I recall most still weren’t super keen on him repeating his 30+ bombs and saw him more of a safe-ish, “I guess I can go with Walker” kind of pick. But that power feat, Walker did repeat, hitting 33 HR in 661 PA and finishing as the #5 1B

Walker has gotten more ADP love in these first couple of drafts (min: 76, max: 92), but that price increase won’t be the only reason he might end up getting booted off of my most-rostered list for the first time in a while.

To the archival footage!

My love was always EV-adjacent but things have turned a little less rosy. Walker’s 11.4% Brl% and 8.0% Brl/PA stayed steady from 2022 but seeing his other top-end EVs start drifting down isn’t really positive, with a 31% Air% 100+ mph dropping three points and his average Air% EV dropping also decreasing by 2 mph (and 3 mph if taking just the second half). Not that this is a falling sky situation but with there being such a recent influx of fantasy quality to the position, a draft price well inside the top 100 starts to seem real dicey.

And the Firstie for “Sure, You Can Be a Top Five First Baseman and Only Hit 10 HR – All You Need Is a .354 AVG” goes to…Luis Arraez!

Arraez was one of 2023’s biggest fantasy values, finishing in the top five at first base but also as a top-35ish overall hitter. But his practical fantasy value is more of a relative situation and might have depended on how he fit into each individual roster. I.E. Arraez’s bonkers batting average probably didn’t help your team standings very much if you ran away with the category and may have rather needed more power.

In 2024, Arraez’s value to a roster will again depend heavily on your roster construction but you’ll likely have to pay a lot higher price, with the early drafts having him as a 10-12th round (12-team) kind of guy. And banking on an extreme profile at that price might be a tough pill to handle.

And the Firstie for “The Haters Must Be Bathing In the Tears of Josh Naylor Outearning Vladimir Guerrero Jr.“ goes to…Vladimir Guerrero Jr.!

But Naylor wasn’t the only one. Justin Turner? Yes. Spencer Steer?? Yes. Alec Bohm??? Oooo – not quite. Regardless, the haterade is obviously flowing like wine, as those drafting Vladdy in the top 10 were probably counting on a little more than Naylor-esque production. The draft discount is finally coming in 2024 but Guerrero Jr. will again be a divisive pick if these first few drafts are any indication, being picked between #24 and #42 after seeing a spread of around #2 to #22 in 2023.

I won’t be making any ‘hot or not’ type proclamations until digging in deeper but Vlad will already be facing big headwinds due to the depth of the position. And the drops in his top-end EVs certainly won’t help. Like Walker before him, Guerrero Jr. stayed steady in his Barrel rates but saw big decreases in his Air% average EV (98 mph to 95 mph) and Air% 100+ mph (49% to 39%). But unlike Walker, Vlad saw a bigger dip with a .038 HR per PA in 2023 which was down from .045 HR/PA in 2022, and miles away from the career-best .069 HR/PA he posted in 2021.

And the Firstie for “Maybe We Shouldn’t Be So Quick to Write Off a Former #1 Overall Pick Who Was Still Just 23 Years Old” goes to…Spencer Torkelson!

Lean in, real close like, I’m going to tell you something incredibly wise but also has definitely never ever been said by anyone before ever before – (whispering) a baseball prospect’s growth is not always linear.

I know. Crazy, right? To the archives!

Narrator: And it turned out that Torkelson had not, in fact, forgotten how to hit.

Torkelson torqued out 31 HR over 684 PA in 2023, with his power-friendly stats blowing up in all the right places:

Even with those 31 HR (and 88 R, 94 RBI), Torkelson only finished as the #17 1B, beaten out by the likes of Bohm and Isaac Paredes, while finishing as a below-replacement player. Do keep in mind, though, how much of his overall fantasy value was dragged down by being a virtual zero in two categories (.233 AVG, 3 SB). It’s just hard to punt two categories and still score high in the overall value game without being elite in the remaining ones and Torkelson’s aren’t there yet.

But I suspect I’ll be keeping the Torkel-faith for a third year in a row, given I definitely still believe in the power and think he’s not too far away from a batting average that’s, well, average. And it’s not just me; it’s also the .233 AVG that was backed by a .251 xBA but just a .269 BABIP. We don’t need .280, big fella, .250 – .260 would be just fine.

And the Firstie for “If Anyone Reads Me Write It, Hears Me Say It, or Even Has A Slight Suspicion I Might Get Talked Into Even One Share of Alex Kirilloff, Please For the Love of God Just Read Me This Letter” goes to…Alex Kirilloff!

Dear Future Nicklaus, 

It’s me, Past Nicklaus. Please know that whoever gave this to you, gave it with love, just as I’m writing it with love. Because we need to talk, as it seems that you’re again going down a dark path. So, I’m here to tell you the truth, hard as it might be. Truths that are so hard, in fact, it’s almost like they’re the opposite of Alex Kirilloff’s bones and ligaments. Which is a segue.

Alex Kirilloff is not going to be a thing. And even if he is a thing for brief bursts of time, he will not continue to be a thing because what will ultimately happen is the same thing that always happens. The thing that some people even say is destined to happen, over and over again, in this verse and the others. He will get hurt. And if he comes back, he’ll get hurt again. And again and again, reminding you every time with IL-red graffiti slashed across his roster spot. But while Kiriloff may be destined to be Sisyphus, eternally trying to roll his way up the hill to 600 PA, YOU do not have to be. You can break your personal wheel, once and for all, ending the cycle of wasted time and broken dreams.

Or, you can commit to another year of torture and be all like, “I mean, if the price is basically free…”. Dealers choice.