The 2014 xBB% Overachievers, AKA: The Downsiders

Yesterday, I discussed four pitchers whose xBB% marks were well below their actual BB% marks. Given their penchant for throwing strikes, they look like good bets to improve their control this season. Today, I’ll check in on five starting pitchers who posted walk rates below their xBB% marks. A jump in walk rate could be in their futures, which would result in a higher ERA and WHIP, all else being equal.

Derek Holland — 6.4% xBB%, 3.5% BB%

Holland was limited to just 37.0 innings after returning from knee surgery, but rewarded patient owners by posting a sizzling 1.46 ERA. Though his strikeout rate fell, likely due to a decline in fastball velocity, he offset those lack of punchouts with significantly improved control. Or did he? His strike percentage was identical to his 2013 mark and he has posted xBB% marks very similar to his actual walk rates throughout his career. Assuming his velocity bounces back, he should be solid this season, but don’t think he’s established a new level of control. He hasn’t. Expect regression toward his career average.

Matt Shoemaker — 7.2% xBB%, 4.4% BB%

One of the biggest surprises of the 2014 season was one Matt Shoemaker. His strikeout rate was higher than he ever posted in the minors, while he walked precious few batters. But his strike rate failed to match his minuscule walk rate. While his splitter and slider were both fantastic pitches, it’s difficult to imagine them remaining as effective given his spotty minor league track record and advanced age. He still has lots of room for regression while still remaining a fantasy league asset, but he may only be replacement level in shallow mixed leagues.

Yovani Gallardo — 9.0% xBB%, 6.6% BB%

Gallardo’s strikeout rate has now declined for five straight years and he now gets to take his sudden lack of swing and miss skills into another hitter’s haven in the American League. And while his outperformance of his xBB% is an ominous sign, he has actually posted walk rates around 2% lower than his xBB% marks every season since 2011. In fact, only in 2009 was his walk rate identical to his xBB%. What is he doing to issue fewer free passes than his poor strike percentage suggests he should be? I’m betting on an ERA above 4.00 this year.

James Shields — 7.1% xBB%, 4.7% BB%

Perhaps Shields is taking so long to sign because teams are concerned about his strikeout rate decline and leery of his walk rate improvement? Shields has outperformed his xBB% mark in five of the seven seasons I calculated data for going back to 2008. However, his outperformance this season was the largest. What worries me most is that his trademark changeup is seemingly losing effectiveness, as he posted the lowest SwStk% mark with the pitch in his career. Once a big Shields proponent, I’m not a fan this year. After signing with the Padres, he’ll enjoy the standard AL to NL boost on his ratios and strikeout rate, while the park switch helps as well. But his defensive support may be brutal, which could offset any benefit he receives from the league and park move.

Kevin Gausman — 10.0% xBB%, 8.0% BB%

Gausman, who was known for his pinpoint control as a top prospect, saw his strike rate fall to well below the league average in 2014. That followed his control issues while at Triple-A, which is rather head-scratching. It was primarily his splitter that he was inducing fewer strikes with, which is his best pitch. It’s also probably why his strikeout rate declined. While batters still swung and missed often at the pitch, they were simply swinging less frequently, letting them go for balls.

He’s probably going to get some sleeper love given his prospect pedigree and shiny 3.57 ERA, but beware of HR/FB rate regression and that less exciting 4.11 SIERA. He’ll need to enjoy a skills rebound to keep his ERA in the mid-3.00 range, which he is more than capable of doing. But he’s a question mark this year and his potential for profit will really depend on your league.